$5 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped TP good kicker + flush draw against TAG

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stvc

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$5 NL HE Full Ring: Flopped TP good kicker + flush draw against TAG

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 8/5/3.5

villain was a TAG reg at 5NL. I'm wondering if/when I should be worried about being behind here.

poker stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $2.18
BB: $14.30
Hero (UTG): $5.00
UTG+1: $3.60
MP1: $12.43
MP2: $5.16
CO: $2.27
BTN: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q
club.gif
K
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Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 5
club.gif
T
club.gif
Q
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, MP2 raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.27) K
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($5.27) 3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.56, Hero calls $2.40 all in
 
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stvc

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how many hands do you have on this guy?
I have about 1k hands on him. There isn't any dynamic between us because we aren't usually in big pots together. His fold to cbet is 55%, but that's from a sample size of only 11.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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from a guy that tight id probably fold on the flop then as he's probably not bluffing
 
rssurfer54

rssurfer54

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 8/5/3.5

villain was a TAG reg at 5NL. I'm wondering if/when I should be worried about being behind here.

Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $2.18
BB: $14.30
Hero (UTG): $5.00
UTG+1: $3.60
MP1: $12.43
MP2: $5.16
CO: $2.27
BTN: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q
club.gif
K
club.gif

Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 5
club.gif
T
club.gif
Q
heart.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, MP2 raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.27) K
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($5.27) 3
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.56, Hero calls $2.40 all in

Maybe I'm completely wrong but what are we afraid of here? 3bet the flop.

only hands that might not 3bet pre are 55 tt and aq. and both tt and aq are 3betting pf a lot of the time. even against those hands, with the flush draw we can still draw out a lot of the time. if you are not going to put more money in, why even play kqs utg?
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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both tt and aq are 3betting pf a lot of the time. even against those hands, with the flush draw we can still draw out a lot of the time. if you are not going to put more money in, why even play kqs utg?

nevermind didn't realize we had the FD, but I don't really see that many people at 5nl 3betting TT/AQ in position very often. Even though we have two pair on the turn though i'm still kind of scared. When an 8/5 is betting hard like this he's pretty strong. AQ is a definite possibility though.

in all, i'm not sure anymore
 
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stvc

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Maybe I'm completely wrong but what are we afraid of here? 3bet the flop.

only hands that might not 3bet pre are 55 tt and aq. and both tt and aq are 3betting pf a lot of the time. even against those hands, with the flush draw we can still draw out a lot of the time. if you are not going to put more money in, why even play kqs utg?

you might be right, but I can't really see villain raising that flop with anything worse than AQ. Villain only 3bet 1% of his hands, so hes not 3betting TT or AQ pf. IMO the majority of his range are hands that beat me.

If I 3bet the flop, am I folding to a 4bet? if villain calls how should I handle the turn? should I be happy to stack off with this hand to this particular villain? What could he have that I am getting value from?

Mainly, my area of concern is if I should call the river after my draws miss.
 
WVHillbilly

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Get this in on the flop.

Against a tight range of AQ/55/TT/QQ/KK (not 100% KK is in there because I don't know his cbet stats) we have 40% equity. His range is almost certainly a little wider than that but with dead money you're good to go on the flop.

As far as calling the river, I think you have to because of the way you played the rest of the hand. I mean KQ is certainly not a monster here but you've under repped it so he could be value betting worse often enough to make the call profitable since the pot is rather large by the river.
 
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stvc

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Get this in on the flop.

Against a tight range of AQ/55/TT/QQ/KK (not 100% KK is in there because I don't know his cbet stats) we have 40% equity. His range is almost certainly a little wider than that but with dead money you're good to go on the flop.

As far as calling the river, I think you have to because of the way you played the rest of the hand. I mean KQ is certainly not a monster here but you've under repped it so he could be value betting worse often enough to make the call profitable since the pot is rather large by the river.

It was bugging me whether or not shoving the flop was +EV, so I decided to go through the math.

If villain has a range of 55,TT,QQ,AQ, and calls my shove with his entire range, my EV is as follows: (pot sizes are adjusted for rake)
-4.5 (.61) + 5.3 (.39) = -0.678

But, if he folds out AQ when I shove, then my EV is as follows:
.57(1.59) + .43( -4.5 (.685) + 5.3 (.315)) = 0.299

If you put KK in his range, then my EV is the same in the first scenario, but less in the second.

What villain actually had wasn't even in the range I put him on, and putting it all in on the flop, as it turns out, would have been +EV. However, I just can't justify it using what information I had at the time.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts.
 
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