Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
Get this in on the flop.
Against a tight range of AQ/55/TT/QQ/KK (not 100% KK is in there because I don't know his cbet stats) we have 40% equity. His range is almost certainly a little wider than that but with dead money you're good to go on the flop.
As far as calling the river, I think you have to because of the way you played the rest of the hand. I mean KQ is certainly not a monster here but you've under repped it so he could be value betting worse often enough to make the call profitable since the pot is rather large by the river.
It was bugging me whether or not shoving the flop was +EV, so I decided to go through the math.
If villain has a range of 55,TT,QQ,AQ, and calls my shove with his entire range, my EV is as follows: (pot sizes are adjusted for rake)
-4.5 (.61) + 5.3 (.39) = -0.678
But, if he folds out AQ when I shove, then my EV is as follows:
.57(1.59) + .43( -4.5 (.685) + 5.3 (.315)) = 0.299
If you put KK in his range, then my EV is the same in the first scenario, but less in the second.
What villain actually had wasn't even in the range I put him on, and putting it all in on the flop, as it turns out, would have been +EV. However, I just can't justify it using what information I had at the time.
Thanks everyone for your thoughts.