This is a discussion on $5 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set on a meh runout within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Only 10 hands against villain, but even with the small sample size, 90/20 stats suggest that this is indeed a fish.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL -
Should I check-raise or just lead on the flop? I feel like check-raising is risky, because I can miss out on a lot of value, and give my opponents a free card, which isn't good. Leading doesn't get as much money in the pot though. Which one is better?
Should pretty much always be ahead here, and want to get value from most hands, so I do not bet obnoxiously huge, since I imagine most Qx hands will stay in there for this size (Or will they? Should it be smaller?). And I can always get it in on the river with this sizing.
River : (62 BB, 2 players) Ac
Hero bets 58 BB, BB calls 48.2 BB and is all-in
Not the best river in the deck, but I decide to value-shove the river. Any thoughts about this hand as a whole?
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I Lead out on flop against passive types who are more likely to check behind and check raise the more aggro types.
This is played fine until the river as I don't think anything worse calls. Even a fish can see a J makes a straight here and that is really all that should call a shove. He will have a few jacks here as well that have called flop KJ J9 both open ended.
So should we bet or not is the question. The villain has 48bb behind.
Against a fish like this I'd prefer a blocking bet of around what you bet on the flop 18-20bb. He might pay off with 2 pair to this sizing. If he shoves you need to find a really tough disciplined fold as that is a J.
If you check you open his bluffing door wide open as a J would nearly always bet for value and you cap yourself to a hand without a J so he should shove his full range and it's a tough spot which is why I prefer the blocker bet here especially against a fish who likely won't understand it's meaning.
April 12th, 2017, 7:55 PM
John A [5,485]
I think you're better off leading the flop. As played the CR needs to be bigger 11-12bbs.
River, value block to 19bbs, this kind of guy you can safely fold to a shove, even getting insane odds, but you allow him to call with two pair. You don't have enough to bluff him off a higher set, and Jx is def in his range, but he's a fish and there's a ton of two pair he'll have here.
April 12th, 2017, 8:42 PM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
Game: Holdem, PLO
I think both x/r'ing and donking flop have merit
If you are gonna x/r which in this spot i personally do prefer since hes likely gonna have suited broadways and big aces when he raises pre you get more value by check raising but you need to be making it bigger
As for turn its fine sizing but sizing bigger on flop can set it up easier on turns and rivers
River is kind of meh
I think jamming still gets called by 2ps and random stuff that you beat but also expect to be beat sometimes.
I dont think b/folding 19BB loses value over jamming
April 12th, 2017, 10:44 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
leading the flop looks weakish sometimes and gives the opponent the opportunity to raise you. esp if he has top pair top kicker, we can trap bad players or even overpairs. But sometimes its best to let the opponent have a bit of rope.
I think sometimes it doesn't matter what you do, we are just destined to lose the hand.
River I'm more likely to check/fold.. sounds terrible but if opponent hasn't raised us... he doesn't have the hands we want like AK or two pair. But on the upside he wont have a bigger set.
It just smells like Jx and we just donating money. Id even say he has QJ or even KJ its hard for him to have anything else... he called the raise on the flop but didn't raise himself. But its hard because we don't even know our opponent. But do we?
Looking at our opponents size.
2.4bb this villain knows something.
flop his small size tells me he's a fish though and he's betting small... but why? I think he's drawing and wants to keep things smallish. So probably a KJ is most likely because he does call the raise. and on the turn he has top pair now as well.
That river its hard to get any calls from worse and its hard for him to bluff as well. So checking is best on river.
April 15th, 2017, 9:25 AM
re: Poker & $5 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set on a meh runout
Trying to analyze this spot for myself (before posting the hand here), made me come up with the following:
- The check-raise should be bigger, between at least 4x and 5x his bet (so I agree with you on that point)
- On the river I only expected him to have QJ, since I didn't think he would bet on the flop with KJ or J9, but I agree with you guys, he definitely could bet smallish on the flop with those hands. He might reraise on the turn if he has J9 though, since I'm pretty much telling him I have a strong hand that he could get value from, so all in all, I think he has KJ and QJ on the river for Jx hands that beat me.
- For stuff I beat I give him, obviously AQ. Imo he could have Q4 and T4 too, expecting him to 3bet QT OTF. The good thing if he plays two pair this way is that his T4 and Q4 could be offsuited as well, considering his high vpip and the price he was getting to call preflop. He could also call twice with Q9, and maybe a few weaker suited queens (Q8s).
- When calculating the EV of shoving the river it returned a positive number, around 48bb +EV. This is when factoring in that he will call with the two pair combos I mentioned, call with Jx and fold all Qx one pair hands. Here I only had QJ included in his Jx range. I did a new calculation where I included KJ, and even J9, and that was still 10bb positive. But the most important question becomes: Does he play T4 and Q4 this way, could he even have turned two pair with KQ and just called the turn? And does he call river with all said two pairs when I shove?
- So as to how I should have played the river: Figaroo2 suggests a blocking bet. If he doesn't call a shove with two pair as you think, then yeah, that would probably be better. Aces2w1n suggests check-folding, I'm not quite sure about this one, I think there is still some value to be had from this spot. So it's between the blocking bet/ fold or just shoving.
- Oh, and he had QJ, RIP me.
April 16th, 2017, 5:42 AM
Poker at: Pokerstars
Probably best check raising much higher and shoving turn.
This way sticky draws and 2pairs will call.. its what i did at 2nl and 5nl
I do hate check folding river... so yeah if we in hard decision it means weve misplayed in the hand earlier.
I do hate block betting when theres so little behind and it would be horrible to see a shove if stacks were a touch more