$5 NLHE Full Ring: Boat with tripped Kings

$5 NL HE Full Ring: Boat with tripped Kings

Context: I haven't been playing against this player long, so I don't have any positive reads on him. He limped from early position, and then called my raise, so I'm putting him on something like a low pocket pair, possibly trying his luck with a marginal hand like SC or Axsuited.

The flop comes Q8K two toned, giving me a set. He bets into it, which tells me that he probably has either a flush draw and is protecting, or possibly was playing Kxsuited or Krag, and is trying to take it from me as he possibly thinks I'm stealing. I smoothcall, hoping to trap him in a continued flush draw bluff, or overplaying TP.

The turn comes another K, giving me a boat. He leads out again, which now has me pretty convinced that he's on a bluff, especially since a second king makes it less likely he's got one. Again, I smoothcall hoping to get him to continue on his bluff.

Then the river comes a third K. This concerns me for several reasons. It's not completely impossibly for him to actually have had the 4th K all along, although it's highly unlikely. In addition, if he has been on a bluff with a Q in it, I am now royally screwed. But I'm not sure I can let go of a boat here. He leads out again on the turn, and I... fold, call, shove? Any and all comments are welcome, hand is below!



Stacks:
* MP2 with $3.30
* MP3 with $8.36
* CO with $1.68
* BTN with $7.02
* SB with $1.54
* BB with $11.71
* UTG with $4.20
* UTG+1 with $3.25
* MP1 with $4.52

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to BTN:8♣ 8♦
* * Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$0.05]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero raises to $0.20
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP1 calls [$0.15]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: $0.47
Flop:
* * Q♦ 8♥ K♥
* * MP1 bets [$0.30]
* * Hero calls [$0.30]
* * Potsize: $1.07
Turn:
* * K♣
* * MP1 bets [$1]
* * Hero call [$1]
* * Potsize: $3.07
River:
* * K♠
* * MP1 bets [$2]
* * Hero ?????


Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Raise flop (any K, several Q's will call), shove turn (you're way ahead almost all the time), you got counterfeited on the river (as played, fold - if you shoved the turn and got called, you lost your stack), poker sucks sometimes.

Wtf raise somewhere on the flop or turn please.

c9h13no3 said:

Wtf raise somewhere on the flop or turn please.

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Nothing to be said for trapping here? I figured him for a K/weak kicker, until all the Ks came out to play on the turn and river; at that point I figured him for an A, or perhaps a smaller pocket pair. If I am completely mistaken in trying to trap a player who I think that I have beat (but who still has a better hand), when is this a line that might be seen as profitable?

Trapping is usually over-rated.

Look at a couple of his potential holdings and what he may or may not do in response to a flop raise (forget what the turn and river cards are for a minute):

1. AA, AK, AQ, KQ, K8, Q8, two hearts, JTs or JTo - all of these will at least call a raise if Villain likes to draw at all.
2. KK, QQ - you're beat, he's shoving, such is life - but set over set is rare and not worth worrying about at this limit and with these stack sizes (less than 100bb effective).
3. JJ, AJ, AT, T9 - maybe will call, maybe not.
4. Other pp's - maybe will call (even though there's no way they should), prob not, but it's 5nl and people hate to fold at 5nl.

Now, what'd we accomplish? Well, we forced absolute crap to fold, but crap won't two barrel anyhow so we got as much out of villain as we could. We bloated the pot - this is very good if he calls, cuz shoving the turn is a snap now (and if he calls flop, there's an excellent chance he'll call turn).

So, at the turn this line gets Villain to commit up to $4.52 in the pot if villain calls both flop and turn, but only gets $0.50 out of him if he folds flop. If you work out the percentage of the time this line needs to work to be more profitable than slow playing (I suck at math, so I won't embarrass myself by trying here ), you'll be surprised by how infrequently he needs to come along for the ride to make that line much more profitable. In addition, if all he has is A9, you're not going to get anything more out of him anyhow unless you have a read he's ultra-spewey - but then he'll call the raise anyhow, so...

Excellent analysis! That completely explains how trapping is unprofitable at these stakes. I love this forum!

Tublecain said:

Excellent analysis! That completely explains how trapping is unprofitable at these stakes. I love this forum!

Click to expand...

Wow yeah, please raise here somewhere. Every possible draw is out there, nobody will fold a K on the flop or maybe even a Q. Just raise and hope for a spew. On the river curse and fold

People do play pretty weak and tight at 5nl, its hard to let go of the top pair. The other thing you have to figure is that there are so many hands that would be looking to raise that your still ahead of on the flop- if you can get him to raise then its a great time to shove.

id shove turn as villian probably won't lay down trip kings (if he had it)

As I'm sure has already been said (I haven't read the replies), pleeeease raise somewhere. Our hand is great, the board is super drawy with two broadway cards out, we want to get into a position where we can easily be playing for stacks and we're not usually going to be able to do this by check-calling everywhere until river.

As played river is a pretty standard fold because we beat a bluff and nothing else, and not many people will fire three barrels like villain has at $5NL with absolutely nothing. I guess he could have some sort of busted draw but not nearly often enough to justify calling here. In this spot you don't think "I have a boat", you think "My hand has turned to ****".