$5 NLHE Full Ring: BB vs SB- Flop nut flush draw, paired board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/2/3.2

I have no idea how to correctly play this hand. Villain was 28/2/3.2 after 89 hands. I had played one hand against him before in which he limped and I made it 4x w/ AKo. He called, I hit a K on the flop, he donk-betted, and I raised 3x and he laid it down.

Thus, because of this history, I gave him no credit for his donk bet again here. I put him on a mid pair, weaker flush draw, or air.

I think the most crucial point in the hand is the turn. I plugged in a range into pokerstove, let me know what you guys think (I figured KK-QQ might have tried slowplaying from the SB and then got scared of draws on the flop? but maybe thats overthinking it....)

Board: 2s Ts Td 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.165% 33.16% 00.00% 1182 0.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 66.835% 66.84% 00.00% 2382 0.00 { KK-QQ, 99-77, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, T6o+, 98o }

Is my thinking totally wrong for making this call? I'd really appreciate any advice, I'm just trying to get better

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($2.51)
Hero (BB) ($5.45)
UTG ($1.23)
UTG+1 ($5.11)
MP1 ($5.27)
MP2 ($3.24)
CO ($3.28)
Button ($5.48)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J

, A

6 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.30) 2

, 10

, 10

(2 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
Turn: ($0.90) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1
River: ($2.90) J

(2 players)
SB bets $1.06 (All-In), Hero calls $1.06
Total pot: $5.02

Well if the range you've given him is right the river is def. a call. You only need to be good ~20% of the time for calling the river to be profitable.

With the limp call OOP preflop I'd basically eliminate the overpairs from his range and limit it to strictly FDs, small pairs and tens. We hold 2 broadway spades so there isn't a lot of missed draws he can have so this comes down to how often he bets 3 streets with an underpair imo.

fwiw I like raising his flop donk because even against a Tx hand we have good equity and he's going to fold to a raise pretty often so I have no doubt that raising the flop is +EV.

WVHillbilly said:

Well if the range you've given him is right the river is def. a call. You only need to be good ~20% of the time for calling the river to be profitable.

With the limp call OOP preflop I'd basically eliminate the overpairs from his range and limit it to strictly FDs, small pairs and tens. We hold 2 broadway spades so there isn't a lot of missed draws he can have so this comes down to how often he bets 3 streets with an underpair imo.

fwiw I like raising his flop donk because even against a Tx hand we have good equity and he's going to fold to a raise pretty often so I have no doubt that raising the flop is +EV.

Click to expand...

So are you saying we should decrease the likelihood of him having a FD b/c we have two big spades ourselves? That makes sense, I just want to be sure I understand what you're saying.

I assume if I raise flop, we are calling any shoves/getting it in on any turn? Or should I just raise him all-in on the flop from the get-go?

Also, what about my play on the turn? Should I give up there or was it a good call?

jaded848 said:

So are you saying we should decrease the likelihood of him having a FD b/c we have two big spades ourselves? That makes sense, I just want to be sure I understand what you're saying.

I assume if I raise flop, we are calling any shoves/getting it in on any turn? Or should I just raise him all-in on the flop from the get-go?

Also, what about my play on the turn? Should I give up there or was it a good call?

Click to expand...

Yeah on that flop the only likely suited spade hand he has is KQss.

More than likely your opponent is either going to fold (a lot) or shove (when he has a T) but rarely will he call. If he does call I'd shove all turns because he's very likely to have a small pocket pair that will fold and even if he calls we still have decent equity with our over cards / FD.

As for how you played the turn, it's close I guess, assuming he always pays off when we hit and we think our pair outs are likely good. The problem with just calling all along is that you HAVE to make the best hand to win. Putting in a raise on the flop gives your opponent the chance to make mistakes (like folding an underpair or getting it in with a worse FD or calling the raise and then folding the turn).

jaded848 said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/2/3.2

I have no idea how to correctly play this hand. Villain was 28/2/3.2 after 89 hands. I had played one hand against him before in which he limped and I made it 4x w/ AKo. He called, I hit a K on the flop, he donk-betted, and I raised 3x and he laid it down.

Thus, because of this history, I gave him no credit for his donk bet again here. I put him on a mid pair, weaker flush draw, or air.

I think the most crucial point in the hand is the turn. I plugged in a range into pokerstove, let me know what you guys think (I figured KK-QQ might have tried slowplaying from the SB and then got scared of draws on the flop? but maybe thats overthinking it....)

Board: 2s Ts Td 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.165% 33.16% 00.00% 1182 0.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 66.835% 66.84% 00.00% 2382 0.00 { KK-QQ, 99-77, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, T6o+, 98o }

Is my thinking totally wrong for making this call? I'd really appreciate any advice, I'm just trying to get better

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($2.51)
Hero (BB) ($5.45)
UTG ($1.23)
UTG+1 ($5.11)
MP1 ($5.27)
MP2 ($3.24)
CO ($3.28)
Button ($5.48)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J

, A

6 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.30) 2

, 10

, 10

(2 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
Turn: ($0.90) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1
River: ($2.90) J

(2 players)
SB bets $1.06 (All-In), Hero calls $1.06
Total pot: $5.02

Click to expand...

RE-RAISE his flop bet to $ 1.50. If he shoves, call. If he calls he has .91 left and pot is $ 3.30. Shove on turn. If he calls off his last .91 the pot is 4.21. 4 times you lose .91= $ 3.64. 1 time you win $ 4.21. EV is [($ 4.21-$ 3.64)/5}= 11.6c.

I would fold this hand on the turn.If u wanna to chase flush then push all in on flop.People hit paired board sometimes.No matter if u had win this or not I would fold turn here