$5 NLHE Full Ring: AQs flush draw - Should I cbet bricked turn?

J

Jreece18

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888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 117 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, hands: 10)
SB: 103.6 BB (VPIP: 13.62, PFR: 8.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.91, Hands: 369)
BB: 40 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG: 52.2 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 35)
UTG+1: 20.2 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
MP: 140 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP+1: 93 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 173.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:club: Q:club:

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: J:club: 7:club:
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 6 BB, MP+1 calls 6 BB

Turn: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:
MP+1 checks, Hero ?

Cbet around half pot here..?
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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Semi-bluff double barrel if you think you can get a better hand to fold (or a weaker draw to call). Check back if you want to see a free river card with a LOT of outs when behind.

I'd personally check behind here, especially since his stats (while a low sample size) might indicate he's a fish calling station. He's not folding if he hit the board in any way.
I think we can fold if we whiff and he bets the river.

Someone with more solid-looking stats, and the decision to c-bet would be a lot closer, imo. And if you check behind someone with more solid-looking stats, I might even call a blank non-club river if he bets.
 
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MinhANguyen

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I might go for a delayed c-bet here. This board smashes a limp-calling range, and you don't want to get blown off your club draw if he flopped a set/straight/two pair and check-raises you on a wet board. You're going to have to draw for pretty expensive and have to fold the turn unimproved. This also keeps his range wider, and we should have strong hands in our checking range here. I think a lot of times people have too much air in their range on these types of boards.

Take the free card. He's a 60/0 fish and likely isnt folding any piece he got of the board. This board smashes his range.
 
J

Jreece18

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I checked the turn as he seemed like a super passive calling station and I think from even calling my cbet he had hit the board (could literally have hit any pair).

I'll keep delayed cbetting in mind.
 
TheBigFinn

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Take the infinite odds

Semi-bluff double barrel if you think you can get a better hand to fold (or a weaker draw to call). Check back if you want to see a free river card with a LOT of outs when behind.

I'd personally check behind here, especially since his stats (while a low sample size) might indicate he's a fish calling station. He's not folding if he hit the board in any way.
I think we can fold if we whiff and he bets the river.

Someone with more solid-looking stats, and the decision to c-bet would be a lot closer, imo. And if you check behind someone with more solid-looking stats, I might even call a blank non-club river if he bets.

TimovieMan nailed it IMHO. Villain looks like a calling station and can have anything here. What's the reason to put more money in the pot? Are you trying to get the calling station to fold? Build a bigger pot for your ace high hand? Villain just gave you infinite odds to draw, take them.

If you hit it is likely the calling station will pay you and you can safely fold your ace high if he bets. If he checks, I think I just check it back.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I'm betting the turn here every time. We have great equity against his huge range which likely includes so many worse flush and straight draws that we're value betting more than semi-bluffing. We also build the pot so if we hit our flush he's more likely to get the rest of his $$s in on the river. If we brick, I'm just checking back or folding if he bets. Honestly on blank rivers, we're probaly going to win our fair share of showdowns anyway with Ace high.
 
TimovieMan

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I agree.
How come Tim is always the first one in on these threads?
:confused:
Let me reverse that: why does everyone wait to post in these threads until after I went first? :p


Anyway, I'm a former 2+2'er, so I prefer the concept of "grunch"-ing anyway (which is replying to a hand analysis post after only having read the OP, so before reading any of the other replies). It makes you post without being "influenced" and leads to a better understanding of your own flawed thinking if it then turns out that nobody agrees with you.
It's part of my game study this way.
 
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