$5 NLHE Full Ring: AQ top pair improves to vulnerable Full House on river w/ very wet board ($5NL FR)

$5 NLHE Full Ring: AQ top pair improves to vulnerable Full House on river w/ very wet board ($5NL FR)

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/9/2.9

There are two things I was worried about here: along the way (F and T) I was worried about a possible flush. If not I figured he either had an Ace too or maybe a medium-high pocket pair. (I wasn't worried that he made trips holding a 2). Then when I get my lucky third Ace to complete a boat, I might have either crushed his nut flush or was beaten by a better full. Arrrrgh.

The OOP villain is pretty much a TAG: 17/9/2.9. Only reads are that he neither bluffs at a river nor bets it light, and he's played passively on the draws I've seen him on. Thoughts?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($1.55)
BB ($3.43)
UTG ($1.92)
UTG+1 ($4.93)
UTG+2 ($5)
MP1 ($7.10)
Hero ($5)
BTN ($4.66)

Dealt to Hero A Q

fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $0.17, fold, Hero calls $0.17, fold, SB calls $0.15, fold

FLOP ($0.56) 2 2 A

SB checks, UTG+2 bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, SB folds, UTG+2 calls $0.75

TURN ($2.66) 2 2 A K

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.95, UTG+2 calls $0.95

RIVER ($4.56) 2 2 A K A

UTG+2 bets $2.83 (AI)
Hero....?

Villains opening range here won't be all that wide, assuming he is positionally aware.

I don't think there are any hands in his range that make the flush on the turn so the only hand we really need to worry about is AK.

After he calls our flop range we can really only put him on a range of KK+,AJs+,AQo+ (KK because no one can lay down KK at 5NL).

On the turn we are underdogs against this range so checking it back and calling a river bet could work better here.

Once the A comes on the river we should never be folding as there is so much money in the pot already and we are splitting it most of the time...

Horrible board yeah, especially with the cards in his range it doesnt look good for us seems like a split unless he actually has the KK in which case when the ace came on the flop and u reraised him he should of been thinking (shit this guy probably has the ace ill lay my kings down) but as its 5NL many people will never let go of kings as No brainer said. Not too sure how i would play this, hmm wondering what the outcome was now and what some of the better players would advise doing in this spot?

Calling off your stack on the river is fine here.

Never fold the river.

No Brainer said:

I don't think there are any hands in his range that make the flush on the turn so the only hand we really need to worry about is AK.

On the turn we are underdogs against this range so checking it back and calling a river bet could work better here.

Click to expand...

I definitely didn't want to check turn, but maybe that wasn't right. Here's my reasoning:

If we wasn't on a flush draw, he might have folded a trips (if he had a 2) or a weaker ace or KK or even AK which was definitely in his range because Kh was definitely a scare card. (He wasn't a loose calling station after all). If he did make his flush (or was just drawing, like me) on the turn, it couldn't be the nut flush since I had the Qh, so it might have given him some pause, especially w/ the board already paired. Also, since I in fact had the nut flush draw I wanted to build the pot if I hit it.

Does that sound like good reasoning? Was I just spewing here, or should I have just checked the turn?

What hands would he get to this point with that don't include an A, K or Q?

He is never folding a 2 , KK or AK on this turn. We don't want weaker aces to fold, we want to get them to either bet at us or call. However how many weaker aces are there that a TAG will open UTG?

Building a pot with the nut flush draw is ok, but in this situation we are getting called by more hands that beat than hands that are drawing. Also, when drawing to a four card flush our implied odds drop dramatically because if we make it and villain doesn't have a heart we can never build a big pot when we hit...