re: Poker & $5 NLHE Full Ring: AQ top pair improves to vulnerable Full House on river w/ very wet board ($5NL FR)
Originally Posted by No Brainer
I don't think there are any hands in his range that make the flush on the turn so the only hand we really need to worry about is AK.
On the turn we are underdogs against this range so checking it back and calling a river bet could work better here.
I definitely didn't want to check turn, but maybe that wasn't right. Here's my reasoning:
If we wasn't on a flush draw, he might have folded a trips (if he had a 2) or a weaker ace or KK or even AK which was definitely in his range because Kh was definitely a scare card. (He wasn't a loose calling station after all). If he did make his flush (or was just drawing, like me) on the turn, it couldn't be the nut flush since I had the Qh, so it might have given him some pause, especially w/ the board already paired. Also, since I
in fact had the nut flush draw I wanted to build the pot if I hit it.
Does that sound like good reasoning? Was I just spewing here, or should I have just checked the turn?