Originally Posted by Sysvr4
There was a very long discussion on exactly this type of hand on another forum years ago. Not raising has a lot of value when the flop comes low cards and a villain hits one and gives action. Raising has value when you are playing nits who will actually give up their limps to a reasonable size raise. As always, it depends.
In the end, when there's an argument as well-reasoned on both sizes as raising 99 from the BB, it's probably so close to EV neutral as to not be worth the time to argue the point. Personally, I raise it most of the time, but I don't think not raising is a large error.
Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
I agree that just checking your option in this situation is likely +EV, I just think that raising is probably more +EV because we exploit the major flaw of a lot of bad players at these levels of limp/calling most amounts preflop and then playing fit/fold post.
I look at it by asking, I am ahead of what these guys have limped with? If I'm ahead, then I'm losing value by not raising. I think this question comes from a Belugawhale video reviewing a fairly low stakes game.
But that's not the only consideration. One is position, which sucks in this case. Another is, if I raise, what will these guys call with? Another is, If I am ahead preflop, how vulnerable is my hand postflop, considering what they might call the raise with? If I think they're likely to limp/call with big cards, then there's a lot of cards that are bad for me on the flop making my hand more vulnerable.
And the last question is, how well do I think I play postflop, out of position, against this level of competition? If I don't play well, maybe limping is better.
There will be times at this level that someone will have limp/called with TT or JJ and you lose on more on a dry board, but hopefully that's offset by the times they call with A7 and call down having paired the 7.
Taking all this into consideration, like WV says, I raise because I'm likely ahead preflop, I raise more than normal because of the limpers, I raise more because my position sucks, and I raise more because there's lots of bad cards that can come. And as played, I c-bet this flop 100% of the time unless I have some strange read on the opponents 'cause this board is not bad at all.