$5 NLHE Full Ring: AK misses flop gets one caller on paired board, turn brings third queen...

pokerman27

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$5 NLHE Full Ring: AK misses flop gets one caller on paired board, turn brings third queen...

Villain is 15/8 over 750 hands - what's our line here when he bets the river? If he had a Queen on the flop I would have expected a bet from him on the turn unless he was hoping I may bluff the river. With no Queen what are his other likely holdings here? The way he played I would put him on a mid pocket pair and feared me for I higher one until I checked both the turn and river...? Is calling here with Ace high just throwing money away?

full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1164394
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $4.93
SB: $5.00
BB: $6.91
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $3.99
Hero (MP1): $5.00
MP2: $3.57
CO: $4.80

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP1 with K :heart: A :spade:
2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) Q :spade: Q :diamond: 5 :heart: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, CO calls $0.24, BB folds

Turn: ($0.95) Q :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($0.95) 2 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1, Hero ???
 
WVHillbilly

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Fold. He doesn't have a Queen all that often but he has a pair way too often ime to make calling +EV.
 
TylerN

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like WV said this is a clear value bet by a PP way too often. Fold
 
WVHillbilly

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I mean you could raise if you think he'll fold a FH but come on who folds a FH???
 
bgomez89

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Wvh how do you feel about firing on the turn?
 
WVHillbilly

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Wvh how do you feel about firing on the turn?

I think it's probably spew unless you're willing to go all the way with it and bet again on the river (and even then it's probably spew depending on your opponent).

When you're trying to go against zeebo's theorem it's probably a BAD idea.
 
pokerman27

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Fold. He doesn't have a Queen all that often but he has a pair way too often ime to make calling +EV.

Yeah, I did fold thinking him for a pair - so as played from start to finish I didn't really do anything wrong/out of line?
 
WVHillbilly

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Nope. Looks good. Is 3x your standard open? Have you ever tried 4x? Lots of value in the bigger bet at 5nl where people don't really care how much they're calling preflop.
 
pokerman27

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Nope. Looks good. Is 3x your standard open? Have you ever tried 4x? Lots of value in the bigger bet at 5nl where people don't really care how much they're calling preflop.

Yeah, 3x is my standard raise. Used to be 4x but after watching one of Blackrain's vids on DTB he didn't advocate 4x at $5NL so dropped it back to 3x.
 
brank

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Yeah, 3x is my standard raise. Used to be 4x but after watching one of Blackrain's vids on DTB he didn't advocate 4x at $5NL so dropped it back to 3x.

What was his reason for that?
 
pokerman27

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What was his reason for that?

He just recommended playing a more standard raise size when first in to the pot. He did say though that with strong hands and a definitive read on a fishy villain that will call more then by all means pump it to 4x - 5x - but you find at $5NL that villians tend to have a slightly better idea of hand strength and you won't get as many passive fish calling with utter trash.

Open to (massive) debate I'm sure but he also said that one of the biggest jumps in skill levels that he has seen between the levels is the jump from $2NL to $5NL. Having played just under a million hands at each level you gotta give his opionions some serious weight.
 
No Brainer

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He just recommended playing a more standard raise size when first in to the pot. He did say though that with strong hands and a definitive read on a fishy villain that will call more then by all means pump it to 4x - 5x - but you find at $5NL that villians tend to have a slightly better idea of hand strength and you won't get as many passive fish calling with utter trash.

My standard raise at 25NL is 4x until i get to CO, BTN or SB where I make it 3x. In the earlier positions I am opening less hands so when I do open I don't mind building bigger pots as I will get called with worse a lot. By making it smaller in the later positions we are losing less when we get 3 bet which happens a lot more when raising from later positions as we are raising with worse hands. Even when our worse hands get called we are in a smaller pot in position so we have a lot more options to take it down post flop even without hitting the board.

Open to (massive) debate I'm sure but he also said that one of the biggest jumps in skill levels that he has seen between the levels is the jump from $2NL to $5NL. Having played just under a million hands at each level you gotta give his opionions some serious weight.

I have heard this get quoted a lot but I as far as I know, those are really the only two levels he has played so he would obviously say that. I know he is playing 25NL now but I think he may be struggling with that, definitely not crushing like he was at 2NL or 5NL. Every time anyone has trouble with 5NL or wants to make a point how 'hard' 5NL is they refer to that quote and I think it may have just been something he said in a video somewhere, not really expecting anyone to take much notice of it...
 
pokerman27

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I have heard this get quoted a lot but I as far as I know, those are really the only two levels he has played so he would obviously say that. I know he is playing 25NL now but I think he may be struggling with that, definitely not crushing like he was at 2NL or 5NL. Every time anyone has trouble with 5NL or wants to make a point how 'hard' 5NL is they refer to that quote and I think it may have just been something he said in a video somewhere, not really expecting anyone to take much notice of it...

I never claimed $5NL was 'hard' so wasn't using the quote to back up any claims I had made - I was merely saying that the crazy raise sizes you can get a way with at $2NL (10x - 12x) are only profitable at that particular level imo. Once at $5NL it is better to play a more 'standard' open raise size be it 3x or 4x.
 
No Brainer

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Sorry, wasn't trying to imply you were claiming anything about 5NL, just getting annoyed that every time someone hints that 5NL is harder than 2NL lately someone comes in with "well Blackrain said..."

I totally agree that there are big differences, like the one you gave with open raise sizing but we still need to remember there are still a huge amount of fish there and if we think they will call bigger raises we should always be taking advantage of this. At 25NL there are still quite a few players that I will bump it up to 7x or 8x when isolating a fish if I think he will call that much with worse hands...
 
pokerman27

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Sorry, wasn't trying to imply you were claiming anything about 5NL, just getting annoyed that every time someone hints that 5NL is harder than 2NL lately someone comes in with "well Blackrain said..."

I totally agree that there are big differences, like the one you gave with open raise sizing but we still need to remember there are still a huge amount of fish there and if we think they will call bigger raises we should always be taking advantage of this. At 25NL there are still quite a few players that I will bump it up to 7x or 8x when isolating a fish if I think he will call that much with worse hands...

No need to apologise - healthy debate.

Definitely agree if fish will call then bet it - all about the value!! ;)
 
WVHillbilly

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I mean as a rule do you think your standard 5nl player is going to start throwing away small pps, SCs, Ax hands just because you made it .20 instead of .15??? If someone makes it .20 in front of you, do you fold those hands?
 
pokerman27

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I mean as a rule do you think your standard 5nl player is going to start throwing away small pps, SCs, Ax hands just because you made it .20 instead of .15??? If someone makes it .20 in front of you, do you fold those hands?

I understand this entirely - all I'm saying is my raise sizing is currently 3x...by the same rationale if they'll call 20c why not 25c or 30c...where do we stop?
 
WVHillbilly

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I understand this entirely - all I'm saying is my raise sizing is currently 3x...by the same rationale if they'll call 20c why not 25c or 30c...where do we stop?

Where they stop calling.
 
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Most players will try represent a queen when a flop comes like that. Will often 3bet your higher pair when you bet out on the flop from what I've seen. They will often fold to a shove making it +ev. Obviously at times you get called by someone indeed holding a queen but like WV says - it's +ev in the long run.
 
pokerman27

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Most players will try represent a queen when a flop comes like that. Will often 3bet your higher pair when you bet out on the flop from what I've seen. They will often fold to a shove making it +ev. Obviously at times you get called by someone indeed holding a queen but like WV says - it's +ev in the long run.

I don't thing WV said anything about shoving?
 
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