$5 NLHE Full Ring: AK in sb with awkward PF

888 Poker - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 106.8 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 34)
MP+1: 133.6 BB (VPIP: 12.88, PFR: 8.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, Hands: 234)
MP+2: 117 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 65)
CO: 68.2 BB (VPIP: 9.59, PFR: 7.31, 3Bet Preflop: 1.32, Hands: 223)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.69, PFR: 11.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 77)
Hero (SB): 101.4 BB
BB: 60 BB (VPIP: 82.56, PFR: 15.12, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 88)
UTG: 116.2 BB (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 6.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.84, Hands: 351)
UTG+1: 23.6 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3.4 BB, fold, BTN raises to 7.8 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB, fold, UTG+1 calls 6.8 BB, MP+2 calls 4.4 BB

Have no idea wtf to do here but I hate calling. It feels weak and I don't really know what I'd do postflop unless I hit big.

BTN has pretty wide 3-bet stats, more so than MP2.

Might I suggest a 4-bet here? To 20-24 BB or so?
If MP2 shoves, I believe we can actually fold. Not so if BTN shoves, imo.

At this point, however, I don't think it makes that much difference. Be aware, though, that calling sets you up to get squeezed by MP2.


As played, I'd go a rather passive route, just c/c-ing if an A or a K flop, and folding in all other cases.
Of course, if we flop a monster, then look to shove ASAP.

Full ring with these tight of players we may even be able to fold AK here.... I don't mind cold 4 bet/folding either since we look soooo damn strong when we do it they will only shove AA/KK

If you look at the ranges and the action I think you have to 4bet big. UTG1 limps 3/4s of the time and is unlikely to call a 4 bet without the near nuts. MP+2 raised over the limper with his 14%PFR stat. BTN min 3bet, which looks positional to isolate MP+2 with his 10% 3 bet range to fold the blinds and the limper.

All and all it looks weak. Id say you're 30% to win against their ranges and need to fold at least 2 players out. There are ~13BBs n the pot, but you are only concerned about the BTN, if the others call you've got problems. I'd 4bet 25BB, making the pot 38BB requiring BTN to put in 17BB more.

If the first two players call, BTN will be priced in with all but his bluffs and you need to fit or fold. If just BTN calls I'd CB bet just about everything for 1/3 of my remaining stack, 28BB into a pot of 55BB, looking to fold if called or reraised.

As played you're screwed. When you called, you priced in the limper and MP+2. You are out of position with and 30% to win. 2/3s of the time you don't flop a pair and have to fold to a bet. When you do hit Axx you are first to act and still less than 50% to win. Do you bet into 3 players? If you do, what are you hoping for? A call from a worse ace?

Should have 4 bet or folded. Limping was the worst choice, IMHO.

4-bet or fold. Don't mind folding to reduce variance. I also imagine 4-betting is somewhere near neutral EV or -EV, especially factoring in rake. Personally I'd fold. Even if 4-betting is somehow super marginally +EV, why would you want to take a spot where you're putting your whole stack forward for such a small reward? There are so many better spots where you can get it in good and outplay the table. And it's not like we have an infinite bankroll and are immune to tilt from losing a stack in order to make a super small +EV move. Like if you had 40BI for 2kNL where the money is actually significant, and someone open shoves everytime. You somehow know you have 52-60% equity against his range and are closing the action in the BB. Do you really want to call? Why not just fold and pick a better spot?

I still don't think 4-betting here is +EV.

Minh.... It is a 3 bet from a button that is 3 betting 11%, 4 betting is going to be a +EV spot here.
Lol @ saying you would fold against someone always open shoving when you know you have 60% equity. That is ludicrous

I think your downswing is seriously getting to you

4 bet and hope to take it down pre. Just be careful with the sizing as making it too big can commit us to calling a shove unless you think he only shoves with AA/KK...

Pretty standard 4-bet. 6-max I've never folded AK after 4-betting in a pot with this much $ already in it, but I don't play full ring often.

My bad, Iplay. Didn't see BTN's 3-bet stats. Always assumed full ring players are nits when it comes to 3-betting lol. Can it even be profitable with a 10% 3-bet in full-ring? Isn't there too many bluffs vs value in your range? 10% seems pretty high to me. People have tighter opening ranges too.

Yeah, I wouldn't take that spot, Iplay. Even if I weren't on my downswing I wouldn't. I don't like taking high variance spots for super marginal +EV.

If you think you are a winning and solid reg, I don't see why you would feel the need to take a super high variance spot to take a 5% preflop all-in edge if your bankroll is like 40BI. The risk outweighs the reward imo. Maybe you would like to take that gamble at stakes where the money means something. I wouldn't, not even at 100NL or below like 25NL where it feels like play money to me. I don't mind grinding it out with lower variance if I know I'm a favorite in the games. As a 55% favorite, it's really not that +EV to be calling. If I knew we had exactly 60% equity against his range, I would probably think about it. But I said 52-60%.

So if someone offered to flip a coin and give you $55 every time it came heads but you had to give them $45 every time it came tails you wouldn't take it because you are scared of going broke even with 40 buy ins?

These spots are the whole point of BRM, to ride out the variance. Sure that coin may land on tails 20 times in a row but eventually it will sort itself out and you will come out ahead.

Well, first of all. We can't obviously do that over a large sample in poker. It was a strange example to use. Let's try one time only 55/45. Honestly, that's not that great of an edge. I'm sure I have a much > 5% skill edge over the other players at 100NL, so I don't need to take spots that are super high variance where the risks don't really outweigh the benefits. I have far more winning sessions than losing, so why let my session(s) be run by a 55/45? My win/lose ratio is way higher than that. I don't need to take marginal spots lile that.

And if we do use that example, even at 40BI I wouldn't do it. Even if you have a 65/35 skill edge over your opponent, you can easily go on 20BI+ downswings. So I don't see how having a BR of 40BI is even remotely enough to be taking every opportunity of 55/45. Of course if we have an infinite bankroll, we are snapping it off every single time. And it is not like we are robots that are 100% immune to tilt if we get on the shitty side of variance and lose 3-10 in a row with a finite bankroll.

There was an article I read saying that some professionals use certain methods to help reduce their variance and thus tilt. They don't take super marginal spots like these ones because they think the benefits don't really outweight the risks. I myself try to reduce variance by switching from a pretty LAG to TAG against unknown players. I used to open pretty wide in the CO/BTN (like 30% CO/60% BTN) to maximize the pots I play and to maximize the flops I can see because I know that I have a decent edge post. But playing garbage hands like 6/5 high or super weak Kx/Qx/Jx for example that can't flop/turn much equity or SDV and offer reverse implied odds a decent amount of the time makes the swings of poker even worse than they already are, and increases variance by a ton. I found that the highly increased variance did not make up for the marginally +EV opens I made.

That's just my opinion, and I don't mind if you guys disagree with me.

Flatting is an ok option as it allows the original limping fish to come along with AQ/AJ. I'm fairly certain it can be played +EV but you just have to be super cautious of the original 3better and set mining fishies.

4bet folding is an ok option.

There's about 12bb in the pot before we 4bet, if we 4bet to 17bb we only need folds 58% of the time for it to be immediately profitable.

It's not much variance compared to a lot of poker situations like raise/calling off pair+draw in 3bet pot flops or whatever where we risk our whole stack to win 5bb in ev.

Yeah, I think flatting is alright because you can't really go wrong with stacking off TPTK in a 3-bet pot with an SPR of 3 if the fish might have dominated hands like AQ/KQs that flop 2nd best hands vs us.

Not sure if I like the 4bet/fold option, especially given BTN's 3-bet % and if he is the one who shoves, because we invest almost 1/5 of our stack and might end up folding the same hand vs a shove, folding vs a flip against some combos of QQ/JJ, and we still have decent equity against any hand but AA.

With the variance thing I think there is some truth to it but I think the high variance spots you should be minimizing are the three barrel bluffs and shoving over raises with draws and little fold equity spots rather than spots that are giving you direct favourable odds. It is like you are giving away money just to try and win it back in other spots which will hurt your winrate.


Back on topic, I think you guys may have missed that the fish in UTG+1 only has 23bbs therefore stacking him should be the least of our worries. The problem with flatting is that we are likely to be in a large pot, OOP against 2 regs. Even when we do hit it will be hard to make any money in this spot. Factor on top of this the times that MP2 4 bets and we have ourselves a really shitty situation.

Also if you think someone shoves JJ+ you should never be 4 bet/folding AK.

I quite like the idea of 4betting. So around 2.5-3x? I've had such a tight 4bet range (literally just AA-KK other than a few circumstances) so I rarely consider it.

I get what Minh is saying and I guess if the money is overly important to you then you want to reduce the variance. Being at 5nl, the experience gained from 4betting here and learning to deal with the outcome is more beneficial to my progress than losing $5 is a hindrance.

4-betting to about 20-22bb is about good.

It's not so much about the importance of the money but rather avoiding super thin spots for marginally +EV spots. When I opened that wide in then CO/BTN, swings went larger than usual. I was prone to more tilt than the safer, less variance game of TAG against unknowns. Against an almost 10% 3-bettor BTN, I don't mind 4-bet/GII with AK. If he were on the nitty side like 3% I don't mind just letting him have it.

Jreece18 said:

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB
MP+2: 117 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 65)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.69, PFR: 11.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 77)
UTG+1: 23.6 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

Click to expand...

have u position? no. have u stats? no. fold preflop is -40BB/100. 4bet-fold is ~-240BB/100. call? can u play this hand better than -40BB/100 w-out position, stats & lead? unreally, so easy fold preflop.