$5 NLHE Full Ring: AK: flush draw + 2 overs vs flop jam

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 48/7/3

Stacks:
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($3.57)
MP - MP ($5.00)
BB - BB ($2.00)
MP2 - MP2 ($4.07)
CO - CO ($5.00)
BTN - Hero ($5.05)
SB - SB ($5.02)
BB - BB ($5.41)

Preflop: ($0.12, 8 players) Hero is BTN with Ks As
2 folds, BB checks, MP2 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20
Flop: 4c Js 2s ($0.95, 3 players - MP2: $3.82, Hero: $4.80, SB: $4.77)
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.42, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $3.82 (all-in), Hero ?

I need 40% to make the call. i have that if i put his range on nutted hands: 44, 22, J4s (he’s playing half the deck so J4s could be in his range. he also would probably have raised pre with JJ) and add in a couple of non-nutted hands and semibluffs: AJo, one combo of 77 and Ts9s. small sample only 29 hands so without too much detail to go upon, is this a reasonable range to assign to villain? also should i have checked back the flop multiway or is my c bet fine?

Even if villian had J4 you still have 35% chance to win against a pot odd of 40%.I would call.

sujeesh811 said:

Even if villian had J4 you still have 35% chance to win against a pot odd of 40%.I would call.

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win % should be > pot odds if you plan on making money long term.

I think this might be break-even but it's really close. I included J4, sets, some 10/9s 9/8s and threw in QQ because at 5NL i could see a player like this taking a similar line. I just think the limp call preflop followed up by the check/raise in a multi-way flop is a pretty big indicator of an already made hand.

I would fold.

I'm fine with the c-bet on the flop.

mottotom27 said:

also should i have checked back the flop multiway or is my c bet fine?

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Call... Also, I don't even play cash and I can tell you that your Cbet is fine.

You`re cbet is ok,and call here on this spot

Pre flop raise is great.

Your flop C-bet is great, I think we can call villains raise, like you said we get our 40% if villain shoves some non-nut hands, of which I think they have a few, especially worse flushes.

c-bet is mandatory especially with drawing hands IP and the call works out mathematically so great !

I don't mind making a call here although the raise is a big one because not only it is a close one odds wise but the villain has played 14 out of the 29 hands dealt to him so far. Though the sample size is small it does indicate a loose player.

So there is a very good chance that you are more than 40% favorite to win which is what you said you wanted in the first place no ? About should you have c-bet this or not - i would say it is good spot to c-bet here with our cards 100% of the time.

Lets just say you have 12 outs, its a toss up. For 9 outs, he is ahead and for 15 outs, youre way ahead.

In my mind, we are way ahead.

So many outs, call here

This is a call without a doubt. I saw fish like this going AI with 55 in spots like this. Sets, Jx , 2 pairs, medium to big pocket pairs and flush draws. I think out equity is over 50% as it is and we do not need to think too much for a call.

I wouldn't worry much about what villain has here. We would not be thrilled to see a set but we have two over cards plus we are drawing to the nut flush.

So this is an easy call, cannot laydown such a strong drawing hand in such spot.