$5 NLHE Full Ring: AA on T4QJ board...

$5 NL HE Full Ring: AA on T4QJ board...

Context: This player just arrived at the table a few hands ago, so I don't have a solid read on him. He makes a standard raise from UTG. I look down at rockets in MP, and come in for a 3bet, for 3 times his raise. I'm naturally looking for either a re-raise or a call. He smoothcalls OOP, so I'm putting him on QQ-TT, AQ-AJ (as I strongly believe that KK would have 4 bet me here, although he very well could have that as well).

The T4Q rainbow flop doesn't look too good to me, but he checks so I come in for a 2/3 pot cbet, which he again smoothcalls from OOP. Now alarms are going off in my head. A check/calls to me says he's either slowplaying a set with QQ or TT, or has AK and is confident in his overcards, and willing to continue with his GsSD. I'm hoping of course for the latter. I feel that AQ would have led out on the flop to protect his overpair/find out where he is in the hand, so I'm not guessing AQ here anymore, or AJ.

The turn only makes things worse, coming up a J; this time he leads out for about 1/3 the pot. Now alarm bells are really going off; he could very well have been playing JJ before, putting me on a big hand, or in the worst of cases he had AK and just landed a straight, and is still putting me on a big hand and is hoping for a call. There are just so many hands that have me crushed that open from EP (AK, QQ, JJ, TT), and his betting pattern suggests either a slowplayed monster or a draw (which just potentially hit). In addition, if I do call, what rivers can I really end up continuing with? I'm basically praying for a King for a straight, because even landing a third ace gives any K a straight. The question is, can I really fold rockets overpair? Thanks in advance for the comments. Hand is below, good luck out there!

Stacks:
* AP1724 with $9.49
* BTN with $4.82
* SB with $5.00
* BB with $7.06
* UTG with $5.00
* UTG+1 with $2.22
* MP1 with $4.57
* MP2 with $2.00
* MP3 with $10.76

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP3:A♠ A♣
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * UTG raises to $0.17
* * 2 players fold.
Hero raises to $0.55
* * 4 players fold.
* * UTG calls [$0.38]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $1.17
Flop: 10♠ 4♣ Q♥
* * UTG checks Hero bets [$0.80]
* * UTG calls [$0.80]
* * Potsize: $2.77
Turn: J♦
* * UTG bets [$1]
Hero ?????

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Worse card in the deck for you, however he could easily have a hand like KQ, so just call. If he checked to me on that hand, I would have checked back also fwiw

I don't think we can fold pkt aces here.

Being we don't know our opponent, how are we giving him this much credit? He could be raising UTG w/ A 10 or A J for all we know & betting out the turn so you don't bet big in the same spot.

This isn't really that scary of a board & I think you might be overthinking the situation a bit. This is only $5NL & from my knowledge of this level, you can't overthink most situations too much IMO. There are some boards that are really scary & might require a little more thought but I don't think this is 1 of them.

He has seen you 3-bet him pre & bet 2/3 of the pot on the flop. If we put him on A 10 or A J here, most players who are weak will bet out in a spot that they don't want to see their opponent bet out aggressively in, like you have been doing so far, hence him betting out on the turn for only 1/3 ($1) of the pot instead of 2/3 of the pot or even closer to pot like you would have done.

Even though "just calling" is a bad move in most, almost all, cases I think we just call here. As for the river, the only thing we would be catious of would be another paint card (besides the K) or an A. I really put him around middle pr & str8 draw range here.

My 2 cents for ya & I hope it helps in the next similiar situation.

only hand he can really have that beats you is QJ as i figure QQs JJs and TTs would ve 4bet you preflop... and QJ i dont really see as how would he call you here preflop... and even if he called he cant really like the board as you might very well have AK...

I call and call almost any river...

You should call the turn bet. No way to fold Aces here. It's only 1/3 pot-bet. You can hit a K for the nut straight if you are behind and 1/3 of the pot is really good price to see river card.

If river card is a blank and he checks - you check.

If he bets more than 1/2 of the pot on the river - it's definitely right to fold.

1/3 or 1/4 pot bet on river is definitely a call. He could have AQ/KQ or KJ.

Another good thing to mention is about river card 4. This way you make 2 pairs and you can beat his QJ or QT or JT