$5 NLHE Full Ring: AA with flush and boat possible

I only have 40 hands of villain.

full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1021784
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $4.81
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $1.36
BB: $5.00
UTG: $5.26
MP: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A :spade: A :club:
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.67) 4 :club: Q :spade: 3 :club: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.77) Q :club: (2 players)
CO bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($1.97) 4 :spade: (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks


Am I missing value on this hand? I may have been gun shy by some of the terrible beats I took earlier at other tables, but am not too upset with how I played this. Now I am wondering if I should be.

HomeBrewer said:

I only have 40 hands of villain.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1021784
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $4.81
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $1.36
BB: $5.00
UTG: $5.26
MP: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A ♠ A ♣
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.67) 4 ♣ Q ♠ 3 ♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.77) Q ♣ (2 players)
CO bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($1.97) 4 ♠ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks


Am I missing value on this hand? I may have been gun shy by some of the terrible beats I took earlier at other tables, but am not too upset with how I played this. Now I am wondering if I should be.

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Probably.

What are villain's stats? He open limped from LP and then played the hand passively. Why did you bet so small on the turn? You obviously were afraid of the flush. Bet .80 on the turn that will tell you where you are at. If he folds he probably paired the Q on the flop, if he calls a raise that big he may have a set, with a flush draw a little less likely.If he had QQ or made a flush on the turn he would have tried to build a pot. He may have had something like the Ac and a red Queen. It seems like your two pair Aces and Fours beats his two pairs Queens and Fours.

fx20736 said:

Why did you bet so small on the turn? You obviously were afraid of the flush. Bet .80 on the turn that will tell you where you are at. If he folds he probably paired the Q on the flop, if he calls a raise that big he may have a set, with a flush draw a little less likely.If he had QQ or made a flush on the turn he would have tried to build a pot. He may have had something like the Ac and a red Queen. It seems like your two pair Aces and Fours beats his two pairs Queens and Fours.

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This post makes so little sense it hurts.

Raise turn for value.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

This post makes so little sense it hurts.

Raise turn for value.

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Didn't I say that??

Yes you did but your logic is way off because the turn actually paired the Queen. Now reread what you wrote and let me know if you still think it makes sense.

WVHillbilly said:

Yes you did but your logic is way off because the turn actually paired the Queen. Now reread what you wrote and let me know if you still think it makes sense.

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I am so stupid! and once again, now I'm lost, My original thought when I first read the hand was badly misplayed AK but ...

:viking:

I usually would have raised the turn bet. I just assume bets like that scream weakness. So the check behind on the river is okay? I would normally assume that draws that hit will bet out. But I don't put it past this player to have a 4 and check the small boat.

fx20736 said:

What are villain's stats? He open limped from LP and then played the hand passively. Why did you bet so small on the turn? You obviously were afraid of the flush. Bet .80 on the turn that will tell you where you are at. If he folds he probably paired the Q on the flop, if he calls a raise that big he may have a set, with a flush draw a little less likely.If he had QQ or made a flush on the turn he would have tried to build a pot. He may have had something like the Ac and a red Queen. It seems like your two pair Aces and Fours beats his two pairs Queens and Fours.

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1. Hero didn't bet on the turn, Villain donk min bet.
2. Turn pairs the board
3. The only big raise is preflop, you can't have a set preflop
4. He can't have the Ac because we have it in our hand
5. You are putting him on a range of exactly 2 combos

The hand becomes a lot simpler when you raise the turn so IMO don't worry about the river, but I would probably b/f in that spot against this guy.

Pascal LeFiscal said:

1. Hero didn't bet on the turn, Villain donk min bet.
2. Turn pairs the board
3. The only big raise is preflop, you can't have a set preflop
4. He can't have the Ac because we have it in our hand
5. You are putting him on a range of exactly 2 combos

The hand becomes a lot simpler when you raise the turn so IMO don't worry about the river, but I would probably b/f in that spot against this guy.

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Pile on! I already know I'm an idiot! :ridinghor

Honestly I don't know where my head was at on that one. I was talking to work on the phone while typing, I guess that wasn't too clever.

HomeBrewer said:

I only have 40 hands of villain.

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1021784
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $4.81
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $1.36
BB: $5.00
UTG: $5.26
MP: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A ♠ A ♣
2 folds, CO calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.67) 4 ♣ Q ♠ 3 ♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.77) Q ♣ (2 players)
CO bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($1.97) 4 ♠ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks


Am I missing value on this hand? I may have been gun shy by some of the terrible beats I took earlier at other tables, but am not too upset with how I played this. Now I am wondering if I should be.

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i think almost all his range is pps 55-99. and you let him get a cheap showdown by not betting the river. its an easy fold if he check raises you any kind of real amount on the river.

either way, his bet on the turn is basically a check. if it had been a check, would you have bet?

rssurfer54 said:

i think almost all his range is pps 55-99. and you let him get a cheap showdown by not betting the river. its an easy fold if he check raises you any kind of real amount on the river.

either way, his bet on the turn is basically a check. if it had been a check, would you have bet?

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Not really. Some villains min-bet air / draws trying to see a cheap showdown, some do it with the nuts / good hands, some mix it up (more rare).

I for one don't think it's a clear cut decision, the flush draw makes it harder and double paired by the river...might be +EV to just call. You should try to have reads on what villains' bet sizes mean for them in the future. Think of it this way : you have a small hand for this board, 1 pair - even tho it's an overpair - so it makes sense to keep the pot small. I've made a range of the hands villain can call your raises with, if you think it's too small or wide let me know. It assumed he was fishy pre.

Board: 4c Qs 3c Qc 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.091% 43.64% 00.45% 48 0.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 55.909% 55.45% 00.45% 61 0.50 { 33+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, A4o, Q9o+ }

I put ALL suited clubs there, which may or may not be an exageration, but even if he never ever has a flush there he is still 51% ahead (assuming he doesn't call raises with T high). So even though you would have won this hand, you would lose in the long run.

Anyway, don't be results oriented and please for future hands don't post results (or "hint" at them so that everyone knows what they are) - it influences people's opinions. I think we've just seen an example of that here.