$5 NLHE Full Ring: 99 on button, double barrel and make my flush on river

$5 NL HE Full Ring: 99 on button, double barrel and make my flush on river

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/5/1.1

I've got pocket nines on the button against a typical micro stakes fish (28 vpip / 5 pfr / 1.1 af / 55 cbet f). I've seen him limp w/ kings & weak aces before and call scary rivers w/ TP or 2P.

I raise his bet on the flop trying to feel out the strength of a possible pocket pair (or set). The turn is a third flush card, but since he just checks so I fire again. When he calls I'm thinking he might still have that overpair, but now I've got a flush draw too ... which happily I make on the river when the the fourth spade comes.

So do I fire again w/ a mere 9 high flush? Did Mr. Calls-a-lot just hang in there w/ AXs or KQs and has me beat? Or did he just call me w/ JJ or TT and will call w/ a pair?

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: $9.02
CO: $6.98
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $6.15
BB: $7.59
UTG: $5.00
UTG+1: $1.75
MP: $4.91
MP+1: $7.79

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 9:spade: 9:heart:
fold, fold, MP raises to $0.15, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.15, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) 4:spade: 2:spade: 4:diamond:
MP bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.00, MP calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.37, 2 players) 3:spade:
MP checks, Hero bets $1.30, MP calls $1.30

River: ($4.97, 2 players) 8:spade:
MP checks,
Hero....?

Really difficult to come up for a range for villain cause he has the spazz factor from previously limping KK etc, I feel this is fair given his 5% PFR:

Board: 4s 2s 4d 3s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.545% 54.55% 00.00% 36 0.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 45.455% 45.45% 00.00% 30 0.00 { TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }


Can he fold non flush-draw overcards? If he can then you can take them out.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.803% 21.59% 00.21% 12201499 118476.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 78.197% 77.99% 00.21% 44067581 118476.00 { TT+, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs }

Tricky spot. U've got some showdown vaule w/ having a 9high flush.
I'd jus check it back and hope ur flush takes it.

I would say put out a small value bet. I would tend to put him on an overpair and he just wants to see a showdown, can't let it go.

He doesn't raise much so PP are a huge part of his range. I don't see him calling the flop with a 3 card flush, he doesn't shove the turn so I think he didn't make it. Players like that like to just go for it when they have it so why would he check the river ?

The only thing I would be scared about is if he caught a full house on the river and knows you will bet your flush but I really doubt it

Check it back. Even the biggest drooler rarely puts any more money in the pot without a better spade / boat.

wrung24 said:

I would say put out a small value bet. I would tend to put him on an overpair and he just wants to see a showdown, can't let it go.

Click to expand...

What do u do if u make a very thin vaule bet on the river then villan check/raises us or goes all-in? Still calling? Doubts this move at the micros but villans can make very strong moves to try and get us of weak flushes.