$5 NLHE Full Ring: 5nl rush

$5 NL HE Full Ring: 5nl rush

Is there a better line here? bet more on the flop? Or does the hand just play itself here? Can I fold to the turn shove?

full tilt poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP1): $5.05
MP2: $12.73
CO: $2.28
BTN: $4.88
SB: $2.35
BB: $3.80
UTG: $3.03
UTG+1: $15.12
UTG+2: $1.78

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP1 with A:diamond: Q:diamond:
UTG raises to $0.15, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.52) 8:diamond: J:diamond: T:club: (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.30, UTG calls $0.30, UTG+2 calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.42) Q:heart: (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $1.33 all in

Only change I'd make here is make it a pot bet on the flop due to this fish' stack size. That makes your price on the turn a bit nicer. I don't think you can fold here. Well, no, you can't, lol.

You can def. bet more on the flop. The board is very wet, we're facing 2 players, and we have great equity.

You can't fold the turn ever, even if he shows you a 9 you can't fold. Actually you only have 28% equity if his only hands are 9x and you need 33% so I guess you could fold if he showed the 9d but flipping is fun .

Yeah, except I win flips, never!!! At least never in 2010, so far anyway.

Yeah, was pretty sure there was no way I could fold the turn there. But I really should have bet pot on the flop.

Hero raises to $2.66, UTG folds

River: ($4.08) K:club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $4.08
Hero shows A:diamond: Q:diamond: (a straight, Ace high)
UTG+2 shows A:heart: K:heart: (a straight, Ace high)
UTG+2 wins $1.91
Hero wins $1.90
(Rake: $0.27)

Nice suck out!

Your action on the turn wasn't good. Looking at what's on the turn completed a straight and the short stack going all in pretty much gave away his AK hand. One more card to come only gave you a 19% chance of winning.

If you wanted to assume he had 3 of a kind then your odds of winning with the river card would have been approx 24%. Not much of a flip if you know he's already got half your side of the coin.

TorreyB said:

Your action on the turn wasn't good. Looking at what's on the turn completed a straight and the short stack going all in pretty much gave away his AK hand. One more card to come only gave you a 19% chance of winning.

If you wanted to assume he had 3 of a kind then your odds of winning with the river card would have been approx 24%. Not much of a flip if you know he's already got half your side of the coin.

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With the $$s already in the pot he needs to with 33% of the time, not 50% and the POS ss has plenty of TP/2pair/9s in his shoving range that we certainly have that much equity. Oh and our actual equity is almost 23% (20.5% to win and 2.25% to tie) not 19%.

Lol @ TorreyB... This is the 2nd thread in which I've seen you post misleading hand analysis...

+1 @ WVHillbilly

madtom1337 said:

Lol @ TorreyB... This is the 2nd thread in which I've seen you post misleading hand analysis...

+1 @ WVHillbilly

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Everyone has their own styles of play. Learn to respect them and not be a troll while sharing yours.

TorreyB said:

Everyone has their own styles of play. Learn to respect them and not be a troll while sharing yours.

Click to expand...

If you are going to calculate equity, the equity's you post should be accurate.

TPC said:

If you are going to calculate equity, the equity's you post should be accurate.

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And they should actually be based on realistic hand RANGES not the actual hand shown after results have been posted because believe it or not we don't put our opponents on exactly 1 hand unless we're playing really poorly.

TPC said:

If you are going to calculate equity, the equity's you post should be accurate.

Click to expand...

My original post was going off a villian hand read that I got following the action, and then just used a regular chart for outs to show the hand was pretty much dead for the hero. No special equity calculations were used. What was on the table and the way the villian reacted was already enough information that it shouted straight, so why bother calculating anything when you should be holding on to what's left of your stack?

I admit my tone with you has been pretty trollish, Torrey, but I think you have warranted it. You've pushed your lines forward with a self-righteous sense of arrogance, it seems as though you think you've got it all cracked. I think it's good for a player of your experience (clearly not very much) to post responses and lines in HA threads, but I think you should at least start off by asserting your lines without being so full of them. For example, you could put, "I think I'd do this, because of this... I wouldn't do this because of this... How do people feel about my line here?" kind of thing, instead of "Omg this raise is clearly a BIG mistake, we should DEFINITELY do this, because this guy CLEARLY has this!" - know what I mean?

Good post

Good analysis too. Hard call. Pot bet may have been better at flop. Thanks, GL :icon_salu