$5 NLHE Full Ring: $5 NLHE Full Ring: Set of K's with 3 to a flush on board facing river bet?

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seymourflopsws3

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$5 NLHE Full Ring: $5 NLHE Full Ring: Set of K's with 3 to a flush on board facing river bet?

Just wondered what the take on the turn and river play is here? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated..

My stats are 14/14/10 over 21 hands. Villain was limp calling from the front a lot and also 3 betting, so I thought it was possible he could have a wider range of hands then usual despite the sample size. Hes played a third of his hands already and I did the get the feeling it was very possible his VPIP would increase further.

I c/c turn here for pot control and to avoid being raised off my set and draw. My plan is to fill up or if not c/c the river depending on bet size..

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 191.2 BB (VPIP: 27.87, PFR: 16.39, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 62)
BTN: 117 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 187.8 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 172.4 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 21)
UTG: 140.4 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
MP+1: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:diamond: K:club:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond: 4:spade: Q:spade:
BB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, BB calls 6 BB

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
BB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

River: (48.4 BB, 2 players) A:club:
BB bets 29 BB, Hero

??????

I want to call here but am I just donking off chips by doing this most of the time?
 
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Scrover

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Depends on your opponent. Looks pretty bluffy. He led the flop and then leads the turn after your raise. I don't see most players doing this with a flush draw, but you never know what these players can do. You are also getting pretty sweet odds. If I was to guess what he had, I would guess ace high that caught a pair of aces on the river.

Although I see a point in calling the turn, raising and seeing where you are in the hand is the best idea to do. If you get raised back, then you know you are probably behind. If you get called, then take a trip to value town and bet for value. People at 5NL will call a turn bet like this with just a spade in their hand, so I'd get value while I can.
 
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seymourflopsws3

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Thanks Scrover

I continued to play with him for a total of 55 hands, his stats where by then VP/PFR/3B - 52/4/6, he limp called 86s, ATo and A8 off in early to mid position but had only 3bet with KK,AKo... He'd called blinds with QJo, T3s, so fairly strange and lose, which I did initially think and made me want to call, but his 3bet range is very strong in hindsight..

I did call though....

BB shows T:spade: 3:spade: (Flush, King High) (Pre 17%, Flop 50%, Turn 80%)
Hero mucks K:diamond: K:club: (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 83%, Flop 50%, Turn 20%)
BB wins 102 BB
 
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Arjonius

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BB's 33/5 looks pretty loose passive, even for a 21 hand sample. It doesn't seem particularly likely that such a player will lead both the turn and the river after his flop bet was raised without a fairly decent hand. The hard part is guessing what else is in his range aside from flushes. For instance, how likely is he to have 2 pair?
 
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seymourflopsws3

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BB's 33/5 looks pretty loose passive, even for a 21 hand sample. It doesn't seem particularly likely that such a player will lead both the turn and the river after his flop bet was raised without a fairly decent hand. The hard part is guessing what else is in his range aside from flushes. For instance, how likely is he to have 2 pair?

Thanks

I wouldn't discount 34 and as he had limped/called nearly every time, I'm discounting Q3 and Q4 from his range as the sample size is to small (obviously not discounting them after the results of this hand).. 33 and 44 are likely as at the time I'd say Qx (x probably being 9+ as its such a small sample size I don't want to give him credit for every possible Q).. I also think he could donk flop with A3 and A4 (and A4 A5 in retrospect but I'll discount them for this purpose) and suited connectors or 1 gappers for the spade draw (as he's limp called 86c previously from UTG2)..

The A on the river gives him 2 pair he could lead out to me with which makes the call easier, I don't think I'm ever folding there for that price but the sheer amount of flush draws he could have had OTF sways my thinking..

Like you noted in the duplicate post (mistake cause my internet was playing up btw) he's very loose passive so I wouldn't expect him to bet his draw at the time but still picked up some valuable info on him by calling the river that he would.. Just hope I can get on the table with him again lol
 
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