$5 NLHE 6-max: zoom - Top 2 OTR thin/too thin/or solid value OTR?

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braveslice

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I think I play too tight for the value, so I try to open up. I’m not sure if my bet OTR was solid value or something else. Should I only beat AK and AJ and given I called 2str he should fold AK when the flush completes.
Only 9 hands with villain, but 22 VPIP indicates he is no moron.


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 46 BB
SB: 50 BB (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)
BB: 150.8 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 35.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG: 108.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (MP): 125.6 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.24, PFR: 6.74, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 90)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) A 3 J
UTG bets 4.6 BB, Hero calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (16.6 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 10.4 BB, Hero calls 10.4 BB

River: (37.4 BB, 2 players) Q
UTG checks, Hero bets 18.4 BB
 
Keith_MM

Keith_MM

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stats give the stats at the time of the hand so 14.29 vpip and pfr was what you were facing. I think i check behind here and take my showdown value. Gonna hate having our bet raised as he has AA QQ JJ combos in his range and he'll also have some Adxd as well. he's probably not calling with anything that we beat and calling /raising with all hands that have us beat .
 
Aces2w1n

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after villain raises the turn after we call flop we have to ask what hes doing this with.

we do get our card so vill either has ak a lot so betting is fine but he will have a set sometimes
 
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braveslice

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stats give the stats at the time of the hand so 14.29 vpip and pfr was what you were facing.
Good point, so he is was tight as a tick.
Given the answers it seems this was as best a thin value, might have been too thin. Then again when he checks he probably plans to call with AK.

Vs. {AA,JJ,55,AKs,AdTd,AKo,AJo} we have 57% equity OTR
 
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A

arod6893

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Whenever I river bet I ask myself "Well, what do I beat?"

If this guy is as tight as a tick, he can have AK or AJ which we do beat, but he can also have two diamonds or a set and will check/call unless its the nut (maybe second nut) diamonds, since you have to have at least an A given his play and you just calling.

To be honest, I probably raise the turn with AQ. If your opponent has AK most of the time he will flat your raise because it looks like two pair or a maybe a set, in which he still has implied odd outs to win a massive pot, plus on a raise/call and the flush completes on the river and he checks, its a lot clearly what he has without risking more BB to find out information. If he raises to 40 BB on the river, you almost have to call, and you're almost always beat all the time. Very few times are tight players raising the river with air or any AX two pairs since the strength you resembled on the river.

But given you check called the turn, lets dig into your river bet. 1/2 pot isnt a bad bet, but I do think there is merit to a bigger bet or even smaller bet. If you bet 14 BBs, he may call with AK. His hand isnt the best but the pot odds are there. If you bet more, like 24-25BB, it can perceive as if you're trying to blow AK off its hand. Or you're bluffing some missed backdoor heart flush draw that didnt get there. You havent played many hands with him, but balancing your bluffs and strong hands here are important for later hands.

There was nothing wrong with how you played it, just stating my opinion as to how I may have played it. Good Luck!
 
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braveslice

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arod6893” I probably raise the turn with AQ”
This play is way out of my skill level. Even after a bit longer though, I’m struggling to understand the benefits of this move. However if we know the cards of the villain this is indeed correct move.
 
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RakeMyLife

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Thin. Ur bet size is for max value on him having AK, AJ, or KK. If you don't know him well enough to confidently put him on one of those hands, u should be checking back (or betting less) bc u have a lot of showdown value. Maximizing value is entirely dependent on ur read of ur opponents hand(s) first.

Also, don't rely on 7 hands of info lol.
 
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braveslice

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I don’t think there is any hand worse than AK to call my bet OTR regardless the size I choose. Maybe KdQx, AhTh, hmm maybe there are more hands to call.

His VPIP is not funny, he raises and not limp, and he plays NL5 that is plenty of information. Also his stack size is not under 100bb. I don’t think one can play zoom if this is not enough information. From the above we know probably him being passive fish is very low, we also know that probability him being agro or lag is very low. So what is left is TAG or NIT. At the time of the hand safest route is to assume he is nit, but as we can see after 22 hands he is either very lucky NIT or just normal TAG. Being lucky is not normal, so we can safely say he is most likely TAG.
 
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amilcarjt89

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When betting on the river ay be sure not to do a bad blof and you played well though tight
 
GameTheoryOptional

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I like your bet a lot. People play too scared on the river and this is a good example. If he x/r then thats just sick of him and you should fold. But he definitely calls with worse so we should bet for value. Your bet is the top of the amount I would bet, maybe like 12-15 BB because we will be more likely to get looked up by a weaker 2p. Also you should largely ignore his stats because you only have 7 hands.
 
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