$5 NLHE 6-max: When to fold to flop XR?

I'm thinking I can here. ITH I called since I thought I'd stack this guy str8 over str8:thefinger, but I don't think we're getting the odds for it. bd flush as well, but we'd be facing a turn bet as well so it's of little use.

My opinion: it's a definite C-bet here, and I went for a larger sizing given the connected flop. V has a 3bet stat of 7. He's called 2bets from the blinds with J9o (in a diff hand) so he has a lot of weaker pairs + draws here... so K9 is here for the only better king he could have. Plenty of 2 pair etc.

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 140 BB
UTG: 20 BB
MP: 195.8 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 117 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♦ K♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) J♦ 9♥ K♣
SB checks, Hero bets 4.2 BB, SB raises to 11.6 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) A♣
SB bets 21.6 BB, fold

SB wins 27.6 BB

First thing I want to say, is that we should probably be checking this flop quite a bit. We have TP with a weak kicker. In this spot, we really we want to get to showdown as easily as possible. By betting, we open the door to getting check-raised. We also won't feel too comfortable on a variety of turns like a J, T, 9, 8, A etc. Its going to be really hard to know where we are at, and villain will likely continue to fire on a lot of these cards. We don't want o play a big pot with a mediocre bluff catcher.

As played, we are going to have to call villains check-raise for that price as we could still be ahead, and we are drawing to the nuts with good implied odds. However, we will have to fold a variety of bad turns. The A isn't the worst card, but its not great either, and folding is probably the optimal move facing a large bet.

I really think the mistake in this hand was the flop-cbet.

I would say without more information on villain, folding to the XR is perfectly fine. At the micros even folding to a min raise would be acceptable here. Villain's calling range from SB would suggest they are playing lots of speculative hands, T8+ and the like, so you're not wrong to assume two pair here. Though I would guess villain is hitting the board in some manner. I don't like calling in a position like this too often against unknown player types, especially considering that our hand isn't improving much after the flop. If we had a flush draw or better outs or a drier board you could make a case for calling, but honestly I would want a damn good reason for not simply re-raising or folding.

I know this might be somewhat insignificant, but I think we can make our pf raise an even 3x. With the number of passive players at the micros, getting them to call more of their stack is better for us, especially if they are calling with junk like J9o from the SB. I also think your flop c-bet can be just a 2/3rds or 1/2 pot raise unless we think villain will call down with whatever garbage they might have, in which case we bet bigger and force them to commit more of their stack.

Julez97 said:

First thing I want to say, is that we should probably be checking this flop quite a bit. We have TP with a weak kicker. In this spot, we really we want to get to showdown as easily as possible. By betting, we open the door to getting check-raised. We also won't feel too comfortable on a variety of turns like a J, T, 9, 8, A etc. Its going to be really hard to know where we are at, and villain will likely continue to fire on a lot of these cards. We don't want o play a big pot with a mediocre bluff catcher.

As played, we are going to have to call villains check-raise for that price as we could still be ahead, and we are drawing to the nuts with good implied odds. However, we will have to fold a variety of bad turns. The A isn't the worst card, but its not great either, and folding is probably the optimal move facing a large bet.

I really think the mistake in this hand was the flop-cbet.

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Mediocre bluffcatcher? plz tell me a beatter bluffcatcher in tht Flop? The is only one beater(KQ) bloquing the nuts and leating his bluffes intact.
Also T isnt a week kicker is the frontiere from good kickers(T+) and bad ones.
Problem here is that only logical bluff(iff vilain is maniac he can bluff any 2) i see is T8s but u are bloquing QT(the nuts) and T8s the bluffes so i would have folded the F.
But yes defenittly i cbet there too a have all nuts in my range too have top doubles and top sets and flop is favoravel for our entire rangue.

teh_colonel_saigon said:

I'm thinking I can here. ITH I called since I thought I'd stack this guy str8 over str8:thefinger, but I don't think we're getting the odds for it. bd flush as well, but we'd be facing a turn bet as well so it's of little use.

My opinion: it's a definite C-bet here, and I went for a larger sizing given the connected flop. V has a 3bet stat of 7. He's called 2bets from the blinds with J9o (in a diff hand) so he has a lot of weaker pairs + draws here... so K9 is here for the only better king he could have. Plenty of 2 pair etc.

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 140 BB
UTG: 20 BB
MP: 195.8 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 117 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♦ K♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) J♦ 9♥ K♣
SB checks, Hero bets 4.2 BB, SB raises to 11.6 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) A♣
SB bets 21.6 BB, fold

SB wins 27.6 BB

Click to expand...

Standart Cbet u are way ahead,but when vilain raises u,u dont have the odds to call him will share u a screenshot with hands u could be doing this and ur equity. Just in case u can see well iff he raises you KJs,KJo,J9s,J9o,QTs,QTo and T8s your equity is 24%,i dont think he has any set(he maight have 99 but in a very low frequensie he probably 3bets them all) he should not raise J9 also because is the best hand he has to protect his calling donw rangue,even thoug taking out thouse hands ur rangue dont improve more tham 25% so is an easy fold F. Is because u are bloquing the nuts but the bluffes as well,iff u had KQs(the best bluffcatcher) your equity increase to 30% but u are stillway behind.

freddydr87 said:

Standart Cbet u are way ahead,but when vilain raises u,u dont have the odds to call him will share u a screenshot with hands u could be doing this and ur equity. Just in case u can see well iff he raises you KJs,KJo,J9s,J9o,QTs,QTo and T8s your equity is 24%,i dont think he has any set(he maight have 99 but in a very low frequensie he probably 3bets them all) he should not raise J9 also because is the best hand he has to protect his calling donw rangue,even thoug taking out thouse hands ur rangue dont improve more tham 25% so is an easy fold F. Is because u are bloquing the nuts but the bluffes as well,iff u had KQs(the best bluffcatcher) your equity increase to 30% but u are stillway behind.

Click to expand...

Only iff vilain is very agro and raises Tpair u could be calling him.

teh_colonel_saigon said:

I'm thinking I can here. ITH I called since I thought I'd stack this guy str8 over str8:thefinger, but I don't think we're getting the odds for it. bd flush as well, but we'd be facing a turn bet as well so it's of little use.

My opinion: it's a definite C-bet here, and I went for a larger sizing given the connected flop. V has a 3bet stat of 7. He's called 2bets from the blinds with J9o (in a diff hand) so he has a lot of weaker pairs + draws here... so K9 is here for the only better king he could have. Plenty of 2 pair etc.

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 140 BB
UTG: 20 BB
MP: 195.8 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 117 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♦ K♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (5.8 BB, 2 players) J♦ 9♥ K♣
SB checks, Hero bets 4.2 BB, SB raises to 11.6 BB, Hero calls 7.4 BB

Turn: (29 BB, 2 players) A♣
SB bets 21.6 BB, fold

SB wins 27.6 BB

Click to expand...

Your c-bet flop is way too much strong versus a known capped range (SB): once you bet that much it becomes very easy for the SB to fold all of its craps that it didn't hit the flop and call/raise only with hands that have you beat.

We almost never have the nuts from CO and BTN, so I don't see any reason to try to get fancy and try to represent something we barely have. Plus, SB can own K9, KJ, 99 and KQ for example and we don't own these hands.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa