$5 NLHE 6-max: What do we beat here?

Hi guys,the reason for the lead on the river was that i thougt any overpair or maybe 1010 99 would just check back on this river card, so i wanted to get some value from those hands. But my opponent put me in a tough spot. I think we are beat here because what other hand than full houses or AJ would he do this with?


PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


MP: 144.2 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 14.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 87)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.25, PFR: 18.99, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 83)
BTN: 127.2 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 58)
SB: 215.6 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 19.30, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 57)
Hero (BB): 100.8 BB
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)


SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ K♥


fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.4 BB


Flop: (5.2 BB, 2 players) 5♠ 3♦ J♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.4 BB, Hero calls 3.4 BB


Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.8 BB, Hero calls 7.8 BB


River: (27.6 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets 8.8 BB, BTN raises to 113.6 BB and is all-in





Thanks in advance,
YungJellie

Your opponent is really quite tight for 6-max. Any aggression stats after 58 hands?

I'm leaning towards a call, since you induced his shove with your weird river bet. But I doubt he does this with AA for value. His range from the button would be AJ-J9, sets, maybe something like 9T that barreled the turn.

On the river you are beating worst 9x, witch is possible from the btn open and nothing else.
I lean toward calling there because villain could turn his one pair hand or an air into a bluff.
IMO your only mistake was your river sizing.
If you are targeting a small pair or A high to call then they probably gonna fold on any bet.
So it doesn't matter if the bet is small or large, thus you should bet big and extract more value from worse value hands.

I would do this river bet over the top of your raise as a pure bluff as your river bet small as no flush or straight on the board I would call wih KJ if he has AJ or house just bad luck for you he could easily have QJ J 10 ect.

River is probably a call with no bluff combos in his range...

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
24 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5:spade: 3:diamond: J:club: 8:heart: J:heart:
KhJs 39.58% (8 wins, 3 ties)
AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, 33, 55, 88 60.42% (13 wins, 3 ties)