$5 NLHE 6-max: Turn check raise bluff.

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Wardy88

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Villain is a reg with a C-bet stat of 60%

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 113.2 BB
BB: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 39.13, PFR: 39.13, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, hands: 23)
UTG: 105.8 BB (VPIP: 21.28, PFR: 13.83, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 193)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.58, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 4.63, Hands: 282)
BTN: 121.4 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6:club: 7:club:

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond: 8:club: A:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets 4.4 BB, Hero calls 4.4 BB

Turn: (15.8 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets 9.8 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, CO calls 15.2 BB

River: (65.8 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:
Hero bets 46 BB,

My pre flop call is questionable but not terrible I think.

Now when I flat the flop I am aware that I am behind Villains C-betting range but I know that there are a lot turn of cards that I can bluff on, I don't know if this is good thinking or not.

The turn is like the best bluffing card IMO, it directly hits my pre flatting and flop calling range. When villain bets again I'm almost certain that they have an Ace but I think I can make them fold it. I thought they would fold it to the check raise but apparently not. I thought that a hand like AQ with the Q of diamonds would be happy to get it in here so the flat led me to believe more strongly in them having Ax without a diamond.

I think that villain definitely checks back the river so I need to be donking to take it down, the Kd does give villain 2 pair a fair amount of the time but its hard for them to call it off on such a scary board I thought.

Is this thinking ok or am I spewing? And what do you guys think of my sizings?
 
weldphaser

weldphaser

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ok, first off , and I don't think I'm alone here, it would be very helpful if you posted more than just a cbet on your opp. you have almost 300 hands on him. Positional stats, genral reads, any post flop info you know on the guy.

On to the hand, well I don't very much like your pre-flop play, flatting oop is very rarely a good idea. and a hand like 67s a weak SC, your just going to get put into some very uncomfortable spots, so fold pre.

flop: you flop some equity, but again your oop, even if you count your backdoor flush which I wouldn't be to thrilled about given you'd have the 7-high flush, again I just let this go otf, you will have countless better spots to play against this guy. (namely when your in POS........

I'm not going to elaborate further on the hand cause I think you shouldn't be anywhere near this turn.....

more stats, more reads!!!!!!!
 
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tomnovember

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Fold preflop plz. And your river bet size is a little bit bigger. Half pot is enough
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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Nice Bold play but to take such a pot down you need to take note of two things in particular.

1. Villain's perceived image about you.
If you have a tightish solid image then there is no way villain will make a thin call here. So this bluff will get through if you have been playing tight during the session.

2. What kind of a player is the villain ?
If the villain is a passive fish the chances of this bet getting through are very high irrespective of your image at the table. But on the other hand if villain is a player who does not like getting bluffed suspects you are getting out of line then the chances of you getting a thin call here is much more.

So if your image is a bit loose and the villain is a calling station type then simply fold to his turn bet instead of going for a check raise.

So always when you are about to make such a play you got to keep these two things in mind for better results.:icon_stud
 
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Wardy88

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ok, first off , and I don't think I'm alone here, it would be very helpful if you posted more than just a cbet on your opp. you have almost 300 hands on him. Positional stats, genral reads, any post flop info you know on the guy.

On to the hand, well I don't very much like your pre-flop play, flatting oop is very rarely a good idea. and a hand like 67s a weak SC, your just going to get put into some very uncomfortable spots, so fold pre.

flop: you flop some equity, but again your oop, even if you count your backdoor flush which I wouldn't be to thrilled about given you'd have the 7-high flush, again I just let this go otf, you will have countless better spots to play against this guy. (namely when your in POS........

I'm not going to elaborate further on the hand cause I think you shouldn't be anywhere near this turn.....

more stats, more reads!!!!!!!


Yeah sorry about that I didn't realise that copying the hand history didn't copy my personal hud stats on them, they are:

Fold to 3-bet: 55, C-bet: 60, Fold to C-bet: 73, Att to steal LP: 21, Fold to Steal: 67, Limp fold: 0, Raise first in: 22, WSD: 50.

Villain was playing on 3 of my 6 tables I was at, I suspect was playing more. Was playing straight forward, a bit on the nitty/passive side against anyone not obviously a fish. Was consistently isolating bad players when in position and C-betting religiously, I believe that their fold to 3-bet stat is skewed high due to a fish they where isolating that 3-bet them for like 5 hands in a row (the sample size is 6/11), of which they folded 5.

Looking at it now, maybe it would have been best to just 3-bet them pre if I wanted to play the hand, their fold to 3-bet is probably too high anyway and their 4-bet stat was 0. their call 3-bet is 25 (5/20) which is probably low enough to get away with it, I just didn't want to play the hand OOP in a 3-bet pot and I didn't look at those stats at the time.

I'm not sure how villain views my play as I only had a 25 hand sample on myself at that particular table in which i was 22/22/14 at the time, I can't remember my stats on the other tables but I usually have the largest 3-bet stat and I average around an 80 - 90% C-bet stat, so I am fairly aggressive but I rarely run big bluffs, especially against fish, but I do on occasion against the tight regs, as in this case.

It looks like flatting pre might be on the spewy side, mainly due to my poor holdings and being OOP, I was thinking that directly after the hand and noticed it during my review. Would this be acceptable to flat if I was on the button? or is that still too bad?
 
Q

quickieQ

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You want to rep the flush but try to hard to rep it that it's unbelievable to him imo. Would have raised the flop here if the A was a Q or J but here I'm probably folding the flop.

I think the BB defend is fine given that your postflop play is strong enough.
 
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tomnovember

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No need to take this pot here. You have no position, not strong hand and no suitable flop, why do you want this pot so eagerly?
 
J

jj20002

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my thinking here (not going to add much more in the preflop o flop lines, everybody agrees on that)

the play in turn and river, villain played the turn very bad and kept the door wide open to hero´s bluff in the river, so nicely done almost sure villain fold,

however take into account:

from suby_rafael: ¨1. Villain's perceived image about you.
If you have a tightish solid image then there is no way villain will make a thin call here. So this bluff will get through if you have been playing tight during the session.¨
 
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