$5 NLHE 6-max: Trying to make an entrance... what do you think?

$5 NL HE 6-max: Trying to make an entrance... what do you think?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/15/3

I have just sat down at a table full of 05nl regs most of whom are decent players. I want to make a splashy entrance to shake things up right off the bat. I am known to these folks to be a loose agressive, sometimes evena maniac player.

The original raiser has been playing tight ABC poker so far and I decide to reraise him.

I'm not using a HUD, but I would guess his stats to be ~ 20/15/3 or so over the hands I had watched before I joined.

I figure him for an overpair or AK, but his post flop play makes AA, KK, QQ fairly unlikely.

What do you guys think of this play?
Should I go on and value bet the river?
Can anyone see the REAL metagame here?


poker stars, $0.02/$0.05 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $6.28 (125.6 bb)
MP: $13.01 (260.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.04 (200.8 bb)
BTN: $9.73 (194.6 bb)
SB: $9.53 (190.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 8 6
BTN folds, MP raises to $0.21, Hero raises to $0.71, 2 folds, MP raises to $2.27, Hero raises to $4.10, MP calls $1.83

Flop: ($8.27) 3 2 Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($8.27) 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($8.27) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Results on request.

Drop the first stack fast so you'll have the image to win it back later? Don't think there's a value bet on river as doubt villain calls much off with AK and could have TT/JJ and just wants to get to showdown.

This is $5NL - the correct answer is to not sit at a table that is full of decent regs so you don't have to get silly like this. There's plenty of them around.

As played check river because we have some showdown value (well, vs. AK), mid pairs (well, JJ/TT) never fold here given how you've played flop/turn, and the whole point of this exercise is that we get to show our 86o, right? I mean yeah we could bet and show if he folds but then it almost looks a little too contrived.

Don't sit at a table full of reg's, regardless of what limits you are playing. Even against reg's I don't think they are smart or good enough for you to be using meta-game against them, just play straight up, and wait until you are playing (much) higher before you start any of this stuff.

Yea, check river.

cAPSLOCK said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/15/3

I have just sat down at a table full of 05nl regs most of whom are decent players. I want to make a splashy entrance to shake things up right off the bat. I am known to these folks to be a loose agressive, sometimes evena maniac player.

The original raiser has been playing tight ABC poker so far and I decide to reraise him.

Click to expand...

So they see you as a maniac, and you reraise a TAG. I don't get it. You sort of answered the question yourself.

I honestly don't know that much about metagame, but I think that's something you start to manipulate after you are beating the micro limits.

If you are trying to use your image as an advantage, then playing exactly how people would expect is not going to help you.

Anyway, I know people gave you a little crap for sitting down at a table full of regs, but I do that too sometimes. Sure it's not a very high EV, but when your playin micros all the time the challenge is a nice little change of pace.

cAPSLOCK said:

Can anyone see the REAL metagame here?

Click to expand...

Yup.. I think Tenbob just might have.

tenbob said:

and wait until you are playing (much) higher before you start any of this stuff.

Click to expand...

OKOKOKOKOK!! I can't stand to see my already dubious reputation take any more!

I sure hope you all don't hate me after this. I lied a little. It wasn't 05nl, and I wasn't the Hero in this hand.

And yes, I know that makes it very very different... but...

Fast forward to about 4:10 ----
YouTube - high stakes poker season 5 episode 9 4/4

I really want people to know this is a reenactment of the HSP hand converted to 05nl!!!!!

I was not drinking kerosene and playing nickel poker. Promise.

But what do you guys think of Dwan's play?

Is it as foolish as what I pretended to do at 05nl?

Or do the stakes and competition mitigate it completely?

i recognized the hand as soon as i saw it, but got here too late i guess, after the reveal

the money at stake and the opponent really makes a big difference, it's not comparable to anything you could do at 5NL (or even 400NL), even against regs. a lot of what works about dwan's game is that he can put immense pressure on these pros at high stakes because the absolute value of tens of thousands of dollars is significant to virtually anyone and most players treat it as such, but dwan is totally detached from the aspect of the $ involved

against dwan at stakes 10x lower i think howard lederer would have been entirely comfortable shoving preflop, but the fact is he's kind of nitty with money (even though he's rich as sin), and he was most likely playing sort of scared not wanting to bust 200k

does that mean dwan's play was good? no, and against howard's tight range i'm not sure if it is. even as nitty as howard is, he easily could have shoved the AKs against a wacko like durrrr, he just didn't have it in him this time. tom dwan himself even said some time later "sorry, that was probably spewy". he just likes trying creative lines, putting the pressure on, finding any way possible to win a pot. that's what has made him so much money, that's what makes him entertaining, but it also means he's going to make some plays that look (and probably are) a little too crazy, and not profitable. but even when that happens, it adds to his insane image and is something he can try to take advantage of in the future so it's not all bad

Well in all fairness Howards play is kinda transparent and at those stakes I don't think you can do that. He is playing nitty, makes a big raise, then dwan makes his move knowing the small range that howard is on.

Howard got durred

I guess this just really shows how much more important metagame is as the higher levels.

blankoblanco said:

i recognized the hand as soon as i saw it, but got here too late i guess, after the reveal

Click to expand...

I am sorry. I lost my nerve too quickly. Everyone at CC was starting to laugh and point.

I agree with your general analysis.

I don't know if the maintenance to Dwans image was worth risking 60k for, but it was kinda epic ledgendary stuff and adds to his overall rep.

I guess the whole thing now is the question in the minds of all the pros...

Is he a modern day cocaineless Stu Unger?

If so, is he gonna blow up?

i really don't think we'll ever see tom dwan bust. people like to predict when he stops "running good" his "crazy style" will leave him broke. i don't buy that. beneath it all he's an incredibly bright poker mind. stu ungar was too but from what i can tell, tom doesn't have the vices or the addictive personality stu had. it's one thing to be detached to the money involved when you have the bankroll to withstand it, but stu got to the point where bouncing between being rich and being broke was part of his lifestyle. he'd gamble his last dollar or, more commonly, spend it on drugs. durrrr hasn't given me any reason to think he'd do that. i've watched him on tv a lot, and between the crazy image i've seen good selective restraint and discipline. i'd guess he's the same way in life/with money

only thing i dunno about is if he'd be able to swallow his pride and drop down stakes if he went on a really bad run and was no longer rolled for the nosebleeds. it's hard to say, but frankly i don't think he'll ever reach that point. he's just too good at the game and from what i can see also good at life imo