$5 NLHE 6-max: Trips and Three To A Flush

Deathwish238

Deathwish238

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Do you agree with my bet at the end?




pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1.85)
UTG ($2.07)
Deathwish238 (MP) ($6.74)
CO ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($5.90)

Preflop: Deathwish238 is MP with
js.gif
,
jh.gif

1 fold, Deathwish238 bets $0.25, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Deathwish238 calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.57)
6s.gif
,
qc.gif
,
9h.gif
(2 players)
Deathwish238 bets $0.60, Button calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.77)
jc.gif
(2 players)
Deathwish238 bets $1.58, Button calls $1.58

River: ($5.93)
kc.gif
(2 players)
Deathwish238 bets $3.81 (All-In), Button calls $2.07 (All-In)

Total pot: $10.07 | Rake: $0.48
 
C

ComplexPlaya

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You don't like to give info about your opponents to us do you :)

I don't like calling the 3-bet OOP unless villain has some bluffs in his 3-bet range.

As played, I'm not that worried about the flush, you're not way ahead but I think AK, KQ will call you here along with higher sets, straight and maybe some weird flush. This is assuming some tight reg, but again you don't give info about villains :)
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Why donk bet the flop?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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4-bet, don't be stupid on the flop, rest of the hand plays itself.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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4-bet? You think random 5nl people's stack off ranges pre are anything JJ beats?
We need villain to be 3-betting 6.5% of his hands in order to 4-bet JJ profitably. If he never bluffs, 6.5% looks like this: {99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo}

Now at the stakes I played, almost everyone had at least 6.5% 3-bet rate, so I just kinda auto-stack jacks. However, given the stakes and the fact that we raised 5xBB, we're probably not getting the 6.5% we need to play jacks profitably.

Folding JJ just seems so nitty :(
 
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ComplexPlaya

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We need villain to be 3-betting 6.5% of his hands in order to 4-bet JJ profitably. If he never bluffs, 6.5% looks like this: {99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo}

Now at the stakes I played, almost everyone had at least 6.5% 3-bet rate, so I just kinda auto-stack jacks. However, given the stakes and the fact that we raised 5xBB, we're probably not getting the 6.5% we need to play jacks profitably.

Folding JJ just seems so nitty :(

I'm arguing to call and play some post flop poker. If it's too tough to play it OOP in a 3-bet pot then fold it.

The problem with 4-betting is you have to fold to a normal shove range of QQ+ and AK (or KK+/ak or just KK+ for some) so while it still can make a profit math wise because of the folds you get, it's turning into a bluff, 72o makes the same profit under the circumstances.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'm arguing to call and play some post flop poker.
Uhh.... no you're not. You're arguing for a fold. Right? RIGHT?!

(that's a hint)

Here's another hint: Try to figure out where that 6.5% number came from.

Here's another hint: It came from the Hold'em Manager "facing a preflop 3-bet article".
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Uhh.... no you're not. You're arguing for a fold. Right? RIGHT?!

(that's a hint)

Here's another hint: Try to figure out where that 6.5% number came from.

Here's another hint: It came from the Hold'em Manager "facing a preflop 3-bet article".

I'm not going to pretend I enjoy playing JJ OOP in 3-bet pots, or that I'm good at it. It depends if his range is polarized or depolarized though and on his post-flop tendencies. I can see a fold if villain 3-bets light but will apply a lot of pressure post flop when he misses
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I'm not going to pretend I enjoy playing JJ OOP in 3-bet pots, or that I'm good at it. It depends if his range is polarized or depolarized though and on his post-flop tendencies. I can see a fold if villain 3-bets light but will apply a lot of pressure post flop when he misses
*facepalm*

Just think 4-bet or fold here, you'll thank me later.
 
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ComplexPlaya

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*facepalm*

Just think 4-bet or fold here, you'll thank me later.

How much does someone have to 3-bet for you to call JJ OOP ?

Remember 4-betting is bad if they have a normal stacking off range that crushes us, because JJ becomes a 4-bet bluff then and is as good as 72o when we 4-bet/fold
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Have you ever heard of a semi-bluff? Yes you have.
Do you have 5 bet percentage on your HUD? No you don't, you have no clue what his stacking range is.

GET THIS. If an opponent 3-bets 6.5% of hands, we can 4-bet JJ profitably NO MATTER WHAT HIS STACK OFF RANGE IS. That's the whole point of the HEM 4-betting chart! And you haven't ever even read the article I'm referring to, or even know what it means!

At 6.5% 3-bet rate, there is no calling/stack off frequency that our opponent can have that will make us lose money. NONE! If he folds all the hands we beat, and calls all the hands ahead, then his folds will make up for the equity we lose when we get all in. If he calls his whole range, we're an equity favorite.

If you're calling 3-bets OOP with JJ this short, you can't set mine, overcards come constantly. You're left playing 2nd pair in a big pot like every freaking time against a tough range out of position! Can you THINK of a more unprofitable spot?! If I gave you 2nd pair, and me the top 8% of hands, I assure you your winrate would be so negative it'd blow your mind.

Now go read the HEM article "Facing a preflop 3-bet" and stop saying retarded shit like "OH ITS JUST AS GOOD AS 72o". NO ITS NOT! 72o doesn't beat tens, it doesn't have 55% equity against AK, and it has less equity against overpairs.

I just woke up and I'm really grumpy, but **** my life, how are you not seeing this?!
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Have you ever heard of a semi-bluff? Yes you have.
Do you have 5 bet percentage on your HUD? No you don't, you have no clue what his stacking range is.

GET THIS. If an opponent 3-bets 6.5% of hands, we can 4-bet JJ profitably NO MATTER WHAT HIS STACK OFF RANGE IS. That's the whole point of the HEM 4-betting chart! And you haven't ever even read the article I'm referring to, or even know what it means!

At 6.5% 3-bet rate, there is no calling/stack off frequency that our opponent can have that will make us lose money. NONE! If he folds all the hands we beat, and calls all the hands ahead, then his folds will make up for the equity we lose when we get all in. If he calls his whole range, we're an equity favorite.

If you're calling 3-bets OOP with JJ this short, you can't set mine, overcards come constantly. You're left playing 2nd pair in a big pot like every freaking time against a tough range out of position! Can you THINK of a more unprofitable spot?! If I gave you 2nd pair, and me the top 8% of hands, I assure you your winrate would be so negative it'd blow your mind.

Now go read the HEM article "Facing a preflop 3-bet" and stop saying retarded shit like "OH ITS JUST AS GOOD AS 72o". NO ITS NOT! 72o doesn't beat tens, it doesn't have 55% equity against AK, and it has less equity against overpairs.

I just woke up and I'm really grumpy, but **** my life, how are you not seeing this?!

O.K. grumpy dude you are the one that doesn't understand what I'm saying. I am not saying 4-betting JJ isn't profitable, ofc it is, I am saying it's AS PROFITABLE as 72o. Here's why :

Assuming villain is not a complete moron and will either fold or shove when we 4-bet, and his shoving range consists and QQ+, AK, we need 38% equity. but we are not getting there :

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

So calling a shove is unprofitable. It doesn't matter that we're owning TT, b/c 10nl regs don't shove pre with TT normally.

So by that logic, we need to 4-bet / fold, i.e. a bluff, and 72o will get just as many folds as JJ will, same profit :)

I think JJ is too strong to be turned into a bluff. You might as well use worse hands to 4-bet bluff, DUCY ?

Now as for calling the 3-bet, you are assuming 6.5% to mean the top 6.5% of hands, i.e. a depolarized range, while I am assuming something like 2-3% for value and the rest bluffs with A5s, 76o etc. i.e. a polarized range. That's where all this discussion came from. I might be wrong but I think MOST regs that 3-bet light have a polarized range.

So I think it's more profitable to play against that range unless villain isn't being crazy aggro bluffing a lot after 3-betting light. Most don't at 10nl in my experience. Or you can 4-bet/fold it and turn JJ into a bluff, which just sucks.

Goodbye your grumpiness, put less chemicals in your coffee next time!
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

So calling a shove is unprofitable.
Deathwish238 bets $0.25, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.75, Deathwish238 4-bets to $1.88, Button Shoves $5.

Pot odds = 2.2:1
Actual Odds against a range of QQ+/AK = 64/36 = 1.78:1

SO WE'RE GETTING 1.78:1 EQUITY ON OUR 2.2:1 pot odds! SHOULD WE BE FOLDING?!!?!?

GETTING 2.2:1 WE SHOULD BE CALLING, AND IT IS PROFITABLE!

SHUT UPPPP111!!!! DUCY!?
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Deathwish238 bets $0.25, 1 fold, Button raises to $0.75, Deathwish238 4-bets to $1.88, Button Shoves $5.

Pot odds = 2.2:1
Actual Odds against a range of QQ+/AK = 64/36 = 1.78:1

SO WE'RE GETTING 2.2:1 EQUITY ON OUR 1.78:1 POT ODDS! SHOULD WE BE FOLDING?!!?!?

GETTING 2.2:1 WE SHOULD BE CALLING, AND IT IS PROFITABLE!

SHUT UPPPP111!!!! DUCY!?

OK ICY and you win this round. I do have a good excuse tho :p

We are getting better pot odds now simply because hero opened to 5xbb instead of the standard 3-3.5bbs, therefor the 3-bet and theoretical 4-bet got larget and we end up needing 33% equity instead of 38% which happens with a standard 3.5bbs, for which I did my calculations in the past and came up with that equity. Obv had not noticed the bigger pf size and haven't adjusted them.

So basically, calling a shove = good with this raise size, bad with 3.5 open size :p

The % are so close it's all a 0EV gray area probably as with 4-bet/calling, I still wonder if it's not more profitable to flat the 3-bet though :) - if he has a polarized range and is on the passive side
 
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ComplexPlaya

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K, I mixed up pot odds and equity, point still stands. Also, if we do this with 27o we have 3.7:1 equity. Not anything really close to the amount required.

The point was you're always 4-bet folding with 72o so it's the same as any other hand you're 4-bet/folding with
 
LuckyChippy

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The point was you're always 4-bet folding with 72o so it's the same as any other hand you're 4-bet/folding with

I know that's the point you're making, but C9 is saying we don't have to 4-bet fold JJ as it's +EV to 4-bet stack.
 
LuckyChippy

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Also as C9 said again, calling OOP just sucks no matter what his range is and we're going to make mistakes post-flop a lot of the time. We can just get in pre/make him fold in a +EV spot and avoid all that. Plus I don't think it's +EV to flat anyway.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Actually...

If we raise to 3.5bb's, and villain 3-bets to pot sized, that's to 12bb's. So if we 4-bet the standard 2.5x, that's 30bb's. Therefore if villain shoves, that puts 131.5 bb's in the pot, and we'd have to call 70bb's.

131.5/70 = 1.879:1 or 34.7%.

In your sim, we have 36.1% equity.

So yeah, we're still stacking off with Jacks even if the raise sizes are standard.

BUT!

All of this stack vs. don't stack stuff isn't relevant. The point of the HEM 4-bet chart is that we can ALWAYS stack off and be unexploitable. Even if villain shoves nothing but aces, he has to fold so much of his range that we still show a profit when we 4-bet! Therefore, even if we KNOW that villain will only continue with aces against a 4-bet we can still 4-bet/call a shove profitably. His 5-bet shoving range is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT to our decision to 4-bet/call it off. Sure, if we know he only stacked QQ+, we'd want to 4-bet/fold, but its just way to hard to estimate player's stacking ranges without a shit ton of hands on them.

And this is why poker is still profitable ^_^. CP is a good player. He gets poker. However, even in a spot like preflop poker, where the game is SOLVED, even he makes errors in judgement.

Oh, and yeah, folds jacks to that 3-bet in this thread :|
 
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ComplexPlaya

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Actually...

If we raise to 3.5bb's, and villain 3-bets to pot sized, that's to 12bb's. So if we 4-bet the standard 2.5x, that's 30bb's. Therefore if villain shoves, that puts 131.5 bb's in the pot, and we'd have to call 70bb's.

131.5/70 = 1.879:1 or 34.7%.

In your sim, we have 36.1% equity.

So yeah, we're still stacking off with Jacks even if the raise sizes are standard.

Now you're changing the 3x 3-bet size IP for which my calcs were done to 3.5x lol. But you're right after all, there are many combos of raise/re-raise/re-re-raise sizes that are easy to miss and can get you from a marginally -EV play to a marginally +EV and vice-versa, and it's too much to expect to do all that math during a hand.

BUT!

All of this stack vs. don't stack stuff isn't relevant. The point of the HEM 4-bet chart is that we can ALWAYS stack off and be unexploitable. Even if villain shoves nothing but aces, he has to fold so much of his range that we still show a profit when we 4-bet! Therefore, even if we KNOW that villain will only continue with aces against a 4-bet we can still 4-bet/call a shove profitably. His 5-bet shoving range is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT

Here is my last barricade of disagreement. I think the EV of every decision in poker is separate, so we can't say calling here might be -EV but it's still profitable because of the times he folds instead of shoving. The only exception is, of course, metagame, but we're not doing that of course

And this is why poker is still profitable ^_^. CP is a good player. He gets poker. However, even in a spot like preflop poker, where the game is SOLVED, even he makes errors in judgement.

I do apreciate the compliment especially coming from soneone who never makes them, but the truth is I'm just a micro donk with tons of spots I don't understand, I mean I only finally managed to move to 20nl this month without getting knocked back down to 10nl, so I have about a billion light years to go before I can call myself good :eek:

:shakehand
 
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