Have you ever heard of a semi-bluff? Yes you have.
Do you have 5 bet percentage on your HUD? No you don't, you have no clue what his stacking range is.
GET THIS. If an opponent 3-bets 6.5% of hands, we can 4-bet JJ profitably NO MATTER WHAT HIS STACK OFF RANGE IS. That's the whole point of the HEM 4-betting chart! And you haven't ever even read the article I'm referring to, or even know what it means!
At 6.5% 3-bet rate, there is no calling/stack off frequency that our opponent can have that will make us lose money. NONE! If he folds all the hands we beat, and calls all the hands ahead, then his folds will make up for the equity we lose when we get all in. If he calls his whole range, we're an equity favorite.
If you're calling 3-bets OOP with JJ this short, you can't set mine, overcards come constantly. You're left playing 2nd pair in a big pot like every freaking time against a tough range out of position! Can you THINK of a more unprofitable spot?! If I gave you 2nd pair, and me the top 8% of hands, I assure you your winrate would be so negative it'd blow your mind.
Now go read the HEM article "Facing a preflop 3-bet" and stop saying retarded shit like "OH ITS JUST AS GOOD AS 72o". NO ITS NOT! 72o doesn't beat tens, it doesn't have 55% equity against AK, and it has less equity against overpairs.
I just woke up and I'm really grumpy, but **** my life, how are you not seeing this?!
O.K. grumpy dude you are the one that doesn't understand what I'm saying. I am not saying 4-betting JJ isn't profitable, ofc it is, I am saying it's AS PROFITABLE as 72o. Here's why :
Assuming villain is not a complete moron and will either fold or shove when we 4-bet, and his shoving range consists and QQ+, AK, we need 38% equity. but we are not getting there :
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So calling a shove is unprofitable. It doesn't matter that we're owning TT, b/c 10nl regs don't shove pre with TT normally.
So by that logic, we need to 4-bet / fold, i.e. a bluff, and 72o will get just as many folds as JJ will, same profit
I think JJ is too strong to be turned into a bluff. You might as well use worse hands to 4-bet bluff, DUCY ?
Now as for calling the 3-bet, you are assuming 6.5% to mean the top 6.5% of hands, i.e. a depolarized range, while I am assuming something like 2-3% for value and the rest bluffs with A5s, 76o etc. i.e. a polarized range. That's where all this discussion came from. I might be wrong but I think MOST regs that 3-bet light have a polarized range.
So I think it's more profitable to play against that range unless villain isn't being crazy aggro
bluffing a lot after 3-betting light. Most don't at 10nl in my experience. Or you can 4-bet/fold it and turn JJ into a bluff, which just sucks.
Goodbye your grumpiness, put less chemicals in your coffee next time!