$5 NLHE 6-max: Triple Barrel Bluff on Busted Draw

6

6bet me

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5NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. I have some HUD stats on the villain:
VPIP: 20%
PFR: 16%
3bet frequency: 11%
Fold vs 3bet: 50%
Attempt to steal: 34%
Sample size: 210 hands

Hero (SB) has $6.65
Villain (BTN) has $5.32

Hero is dealt Ad Qc
SB posts $0.02
Hero (BB) posts $0.05
UTG folds
MP folds
CO folds
Villain (BTN) raises to $0.15
SB folds
Hero (BB) raises to $0.50
Villain (BTN) calls $0.35

$0.98 in pot (2 players)
Flop shows Jh 9s 4s

Hero bets $0.55
Villain calls $0.55

$2.04 in pot
Turn shows Ts

Hero bets $1.25
Villain calls $1.25

$4.50 in pot
River shows 9d

Hero bets $3.02 and is ALL-IN

What do you think of this triple barrel bluff? My logic was that the villain would probably fold all of his JT, QJ, KJ, AJ and QQ hands here and only call with straights, flushes and boats. Is this a reasonable assumption?
 
No Brainer

No Brainer

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The problem is that this board hits his range a lot harder than it does yours. What are you trying to represent here, just overpairs and AKspades? Once he calls the flop here I would rather give it up than keep firing.

Also, being 5NL I wouldn't expect anyone to fold overpairs or even TPTK even if they are regs.
 
M

MinhANguyen

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Actually he is only repping boats and flushes. Straights and overpairs never play like this without some type of history or dynamic going on. Flop I just check-fold. Hits his range super hard, and he might be floating with two overs here to bluff the turn. Don't think double barreling a board that hits someone's range super hard is going to be profitable. As played, I like the triple barrel to get him off TP hands and possibly QQ.
 
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