$5 NLHE 6-max: Stars zoom - TPTK on drawy board stats vs notes with TPTK

B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Hi,
I’m confused OTF, should I fold or call. I have always thought that notes are more important. The note say called two barrels with draw, but stats indicate he is quite aggressive. Even more, he sees my stats and thinks that I’m not loose more to tight side and multiway. My CB was a bit too small, maybe 0.36 would have been better. OTT he though a bit (7 sec), I was thinking OTF good 20 sec.
CB 88; TCB 74; W$WSF: 71; W$SD 3/3; Raise CBet 2/4; Call SB 1/10

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 7)
SB: 115.8 BB (VPIP: 21.90, PFR: 18.10, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 107)
BB: 318.2 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 105)
UTG: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 22.41, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 121)
Hero (MP): 202.2 BB
CO: 167 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 52)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 7 T K
SB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, fold, SB raises to 18.8 BB, Hero calls 12.8 BB

Turn: (47.6 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 27.2 BB, fold

SB wins 45.6 BB
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
problem i also find with notes and stats we can misunderstand them due to sample size

In this case you suggest we go by logical choice disregarding disinformation?
Does this mean this is a fold vs unknown, even when there is a draws on the board?
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Total posts
5,781
Chips
0
we do have some sort of info we can use... he looks quite solid with his stats and hes oop

also theres a huge diff to someone calling off barreĺls and betting. it doesnt say thr size he called to try and draw as well... plus 3x is quite steep

so all we have is a pair and if he has a set and another k comes we get sticky. spades and broadways come out and its all bad news... we invested only 9bb and hes def trying to build the pot and its hard to improve to the best hand
 
Last edited:
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Hmm, I think I really need to think and learn folding flop then a bit more. I was surpriced to see you would fold here after following your journal.

First thing probably is to chech databse if calling with TP is profitable, maybe 2 for color flop.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Total posts
5,781
Chips
0
yeah i guess my views have changed a bit when it comes to those type of hands. i use to never fold those spots but it makes sense as the tables get tighter..


it is very read dependant if u think someones playing at u .... if you know how he plays turns u can call to bluff turn but thats awfully tricky and needs good timing or u just burn money
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
I think you have a point there, I have 54 hands 5NL where the board was non paired with 2 cards for FD and I got raised having [over pair or TP] and not having [FD or open ender] myself.

Won -8$, AI adjusted -4$, more importantly the graph indicates lots of variance and small downward direction. Things probably go way more wrong if multiway is added to the equation. In 2NL similar situation, but my skill level is luckily quite not as bad as it was there.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
Hmm, I think I really need to think and learn folding flop then a bit more. I was surpriced to see you would fold here after following your journal.

First thing probably is to chech databse if calling with TP is profitable, maybe 2 for color flop.

Calling CR on the flop with TP is always going to be a big loser, especially at these stakes. I probably don't need to explain why.

Sometimes you'll have to call to not be as exploitable, but at these stakes, just take what people are doing at face value and don't level yourself. That's some of the best advice you're going to get. :)
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Right needs some work for me then. Here is what database said:
database 5NL zoom

Action on the flop: CB is raised, below is break down what the villain raised with

867 hands raised on the flop and went showdown, out of that raised:

set: 163 --19%
over pair: 71 –8%
2pair using both hole cards: 94 – 8%
nut FD: 40 – 4.5%
any FD: 103 – 12%
flus or str draw: 156 – 18%
set or better: 216 – 25%
top pair: 148 – 18%
top pair top kicker: 49
second pair: 27 -
worse pair: 7
pocket pair second or worse: 34
pocket pair on paired flop: 59
2over cards: 24
one over card: 23 hands
randoms: 42 hands

To conclude:
over pair or better: 381 – 44%
draw: 156 – 18%
top pair: 148+25(on paired board a pocket pair) – 20%
Bluff like hands:
second pair: 27
bluffs: 130 – 15%

What does that mean I have still no idea, so comments appreciated...
 
A

arod6893

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 5, 2016
Total posts
61
Chips
0
I'm sorry but I'm going to completely disagree here for folding the flop

The flop is always a call. If you want to or not or if its crying or not, how tight can you possibly play? Lets just dumb the logistical side, the math, and the notes for a second.

Okay, so what hands are just calling after a raise PF and a caller after? Hes priced in for sure, and any two decent cards are going to call (and given VPIP, not a complete moron either). So on the flop, what are the most viable sets? 77 for sure, but wouldnt TT or KK raise ? Good steal spot for TT (since i always stress it doesnt play well post flop at all and it "looks" better then it actually is (also looking at his 3-bet frequency compared to the table this is for sure a possibility)?and KK for sure raise pre, so those two hands im discounting.

Now all the combo two pairs he can have too, 107suited, K7suited, and more likely K10 suited, but against all hands you have equity against still. Thin, but im never folding pre to those hands especially one a spade comes its slowing people down for sure.

To me, it looks like KX of spades, some AX of spades, and more likely 77. But you're going to become so easy to play against folding TPTK on the flop. Too exploitable to me, and its too strong OTF to just fold to one raiser. If a spade misses, you're ahead some of the time (which he'll continue to bluff a lot) and the turn can go check check if you're afraid of a monster hand.

Just think its very easy in hindsight to say fold the flop, when in reality you beat enough hands and have equity against a lot of them to call and see what happens on the turn.

Good luck!
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
arod6893 I kind of agreed before but not so sure anymore.

Not quite what I wanted, but NL5 2 for color flop , how many % raises vs CB are actually flush draws.

Total 478 raises, where they hold 91 times flush draw, FD without TP or made str 63 times, no pair at all 40 times.

Conclusion 90% of the time someone is raising 2 for color flop they don’t have pure FD.

I’m kind of starting to think aggressive players will raise TOP pair here :eek: let see how many top pair raises we find. Would be funny if that is standard line :D

Well only 92 top pair raises, still more than FD
 
A

arod6893

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 5, 2016
Total posts
61
Chips
0
Even if top pair is raising more then pure FD, my conclusion being you're ahead of so much of the range he could have and still have equity against the hands he could have that I can never justify folding TPTK in that spot given all of he hands that will blank the turn and even "help" you if he doesnt have them.

Also going into my analysis and reviewing, KJspades, KQ spades other raise options. When I spade drops you fold the turn, but I truly believe folding here is more or less avoiding to make a big decision on a later street.

Had a similar situation today where the board bricked and called down with AK IP against K10 in a similar spot where my opponent three barreled his flush draw with TP. If you fold this spot more often then not given the texture you are way easier to play against and will be bluffed off that hand when its good more often then not
 
IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2013
Total posts
2,593
Chips
0
What hands is the SB flatting our MP raise with?

Considering he is in the worst position at the table and he has reggy stats I am going to assume he is pretty damn tight in this spot. SB is also the most commonly 3 bet position and I think SB has stats that indicate he probably knows this. So with that said SB is going to basically have a very middling range(Broadways/middle pairs) he is going to the flop with.

66-1010, KQs/KJs, QJs/J10s, AJs, AQo, AQs(Both AQ about half the time flats other half raises). This part of his range is a given but we don't know how villain plays his premium connectors from the SB but I think with villain being 1/10 out of the SB we can safely discount the premium connectors.

What part of that range is raising the flop?

(66-1010, KQs/KJs, QJs/J10s, AJs, AQo, AQs)

77/1010, KsQs, KsJs, QJs, AsJs/AsQs. As we can see his raising range on the flop should be mostly draws but all these draws are basically super draws that we are flipping against. Against this range we have ~24% equity and we need ~26% to call on the flop so the flop is in fact, a fold.
 
Last edited:
A

arod6893

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 5, 2016
Total posts
61
Chips
0
Flip is exactly what it is, a flip. I understand this situation is a flip, but thats what it is into the turn, a flip. I wil never, EVER fold a made hand into a flip. Because into the turn, even with him having a lot of equity still you are the favorite. Just like our other conversation in the other post, the math says to fold. But you cant tell me you rather have a draw over a made pair that will be ahead half the time into the turn.

If this is a discrepancy in philosophy thats one thing and I respect where you're coming from, but I am never folding here to one raise unless the turn card says so. Sometimes you lose the hand, sometimes you win the hand. But I will guarantee that your opponent will put in more money over the long run to hit this draw then you will call/folding the turn.

Great conversations, IPlay
 
IPlay

IPlay

Bum hunts 25NL
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 7, 2013
Total posts
2,593
Chips
0
Flip is exactly what it is, a flip. I understand this situation is a flip, but thats what it is into the turn, a flip. I wil never, EVER fold a made hand into a flip. Because into the turn, even with him having a lot of equity still you are the favorite. Just like our other conversation in the other post, the math says to fold. But you cant tell me you rather have a draw over a made pair that will be ahead half the time into the turn.

If this is a discrepancy in philosophy thats one thing and I respect where you're coming from, but I am never folding here to one raise unless the turn card says so. Sometimes you lose the hand, sometimes you win the hand. But I will guarantee that your opponent will put in more money over the long run to hit this draw then you will call/folding the turn.

Great conversations, IPlay

We are at BEST a flip, the other times we are crushed by sets with under 4% equity which is why we only have ~24% equity here.

He has 77/1010 for sets which is 6 combos.

He has KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, AsJs/AsQs for draws which is 5 combos.

So I was actually wrong in my wording earlier and he has more combos of sets then he does draws. Sorry for the confusion but this is why we dig deep into the math to get the real answer.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Interesting to follow your discussion IPlay and arod6893, seems you guys know so much and your range analysis looks so natural it really has to be that, but surely he has KTs too mostly.

The quest for understanding flush draws in NL5 zoom is concluded as follows: from database 3bet vs CB using 2hole cards for flush, no str&draw 77 hands, compared to 406 hands which did not 3bet.

Giving 84% players (well hands) don’t raise FD OTF. Kind of totally opposite numbers what I though. I wonder if showdown requirement is altering the result too much.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
Right needs some work for me then. Here is what database said:
database 5NL zoom

Action on the flop: CB is raised, below is break down what the villain raised with

867 hands raised on the flop and went showdown, out of that raised:

set: 163 --19%
over pair: 71 –8%
2pair using both hole cards: 94 – 8%
nut FD: 40 – 4.5%
any FD: 103 – 12%
flus or str draw: 156 – 18%
set or better: 216 – 25%
top pair: 148 – 18%
top pair top kicker: 49
second pair: 27 -
worse pair: 7
pocket pair second or worse: 34
pocket pair on paired flop: 59
2over cards: 24
one over card: 23 hands
randoms: 42 hands

To conclude:
over pair or better: 381 – 44%
draw: 156 – 18%
top pair: 148+25(on paired board a pocket pair) – 20%
Bluff like hands:
second pair: 27
bluffs: 130 – 15%

What does that mean I have still no idea, so comments appreciated...

Thanks for sharing, but it doesn't mean a whole lot. The situation, flop texture, and opponent play such a huge role in terms of breaking down how often someone will have a pure bluff, semi-bluff, etc...

I think I'm going to do a video about this hand because there's some things that are important that haven't even been touched on yet in this hand.

If OP doesn't mind... ?
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
Well, I did a video and I'll post if you want. Just let me know.
 
John A

John A

Poker Zion Coach
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 12, 2012
Total posts
6,492
Awards
3
Chips
37
https://youtu.be/ywI3Hx5pW6o

I always forget how to embed on CC, and I'm too tired right now. I wish they'd just add that simple VB mod so it would automatically format any youtube links. Do you hear me CC? You can add it in 1 minute, literally...
 
PokerStars Guides: Italiano - Dansk - Nederlands - Deutsch - Français - Español - Polski - Norsk - Português - Svenska - PokerStars Mobile - Deutsch Mobile - PS Casino
Top