re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: Shoving 140bb on river with a busted straight draw
Originally Posted by Matthew Southall
Isn't it the other way around? He has a much stronger range than me (overpairs + top/middle sets + nut straight + AQ/AK), since he 3bet me from the SB, whereas I flat-called him in position, so my range leans towards sets, straights and 2pr with no overpairs except QQ, so my range hits this board harder than his.
And would the villain ever check QK or top set here? Why wouldn't he bet for value and hope that I call with a worse set, 2pr or an overpair?
My assumption was that I could get the villain to fold any overpair by shoving this river and that I would only get called by sets. Is this a fair assumption to make?
You should avoid zero equity bluffs at the micros unless you have a solid read that they are capable of making hero folds. Or if the board is textured a certain way, misses their perceived range, they show a ton of weakness, and you're sure a big bet on the river is going to be profitable. You are going to be lighting money on fire if you try this readless or on a regular basis. I've seen people try to hero me with bottom pair, 2nd pair to the board, tp on a super scary board, etc when I bet big or overbet jam 2-4x the pot on the river. This is 25NL.