This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: Shove with middle set on flop? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Not sure what to do in this spot. Should I raise or even shove here to protect my hand, or should I be cautious bearing
Not sure what to do in this spot. Should I raise or even shove here to protect my hand, or should I be cautious bearing in mind stack sizes? What hand are people putting the CO on bearing in mind he flats 3bet pre-flop and only flats my raise on the flop? I have no stats on him.
Back flips are called for here . You have the third nuts, losing only to AA and KQ. The question is, "How can I get my whole stack in by the river?" given the play so far that should be easy.
If CO has a flush draw he is already priced in to call a shove, so there is no such thing as protecting your hand. After you call Button's AI there is ~$10,50 in the pot and you have ~$12.63 behind. If you shove CO will have to call $12.52 to win $23.63, too close to fold a big flush draw., let alone a flush inside straight draw.
I doubt CO has AA, but suited Ax would call the flop and the shove. KQs is already ahead and may have a redraw to a flush, but even if CO has KQ of spades, you are only a 70/30 dog. 65/35 dog to the other KQs. Would CO call KQo pre after a 3bet and an over call? I won't.
After you call, what does CO think you have? A combo flush draw? TPTK? IMHO, if he will over call your call, he'll call the AI. In a nickle game there is no point in looking for monsters under the bed. Even if he hits his flush, you have 6 outs to a boat on the turn and 9 outs on the river.
Its a shove as I see it
21st December 2017, 4:01 AM
A tough spot indeed. What makes interesting are the stack sizes.If the stacks were 100-200BBs I'd easily shove but I'd like to hear what others say on this.
In the end I guess your hand is forced. Maybe reraise around 150-200Bbs??
21st December 2017, 12:04 PM
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: Shove with middle set on flop?
I'm doubting CO has KQ or AA. I think those hands are more likely to try and get it all in on the flop given the board texture. I'm guessing its more likely they have a pair and gut shot type of hand like AQ or AK.
Personally I'd be looking to get it in on the flop because a ton of cards can kill your action on turn. Any spade and any face card.
Don't get me wrong there will be times you are behind, but I think there are enough TPTK, combo draws and flush draws that can call you.
Raising 100 or 200 bb in this spot isn't great for a couple of reasons IMO.
First it looks really strong. What draws are going to do that?
Second if you get called and spade K or Q comes off on the turn its a bad spot and you are probably priced in to call off anyway.
22nd December 2017, 11:19 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
Thanks for the input! I shoved the turn and the CO had AA! I mean, who plays AA like that? Flatting a 3bet preflop in a multi-way pot then check-calling the 2nd nuts on an incredibly draw heavy board on the flop? Madness! Anyhow, glad to hear that people don't think shoving the turn was a terrible idea, and indeed not worrying too much about monsters under the bed!!