$5 NLHE 6-max: $ : Should I fold a flush against nit ?

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Papier24

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No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
PokerStars
6 players
Formatiert mit pokerpilot.com: Der Poker-HUD für Mac und Windows

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (
$12,08)
MP - MP (
$5,56)
CO - Hero (
$5,72)
BTN - BTN (
$1,31)
SB - SB (
$10,08)
BB - BB (
$5,00)

Preflop: (
$0,07, 6 players) Hero is CO with Q♦8♦
2 folds, Hero raises to $0,15, 2 folds, BB calls $0,10

Flop:
3♠9♦Q♣ ($0,32, 2 players - Hero: $5,57, BB: $4,85)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn:
3♦ ($0,32, 2 players - Hero: $5,57, BB: $4,85)
BB bets $0,15, Hero calls $0,15

River:
2♦ ($0,62, 2 players - Hero: $5,42, BB: $4,70)
BB bets $0,40, Hero raises to $1,35, BB raises to $4,70 (all-in), Hero calls $3,35

Total Pot:
$10,02


Villain stats : 18 VPIP 15 PFR 2,1 AF 3% 3bet
195 hands played

Yes loose opening preflop but the blinds were folding everything preflop thats why I opened alot of hands from the button/CO.
I usually bet the flop but check it back every now and then with a weak kicker.

Anyway, real decision is on the river for me. Don't think this guy is ever bluffing here after I raised him.
But there are just not that many hands that beat me.
There is 1 comination of pocket 33 left, 3 combinations of pocket 99 and some stronger flushes. I still need to win 33 % of the time and does he bluff/shove with weaker flushes often enough to justify a call ? I'm not even sure if he is raising here with a King high flush.
Don't think he ever has QQ here since I hold one queen in my hand and his 3bet stat atleast implies he knows how to 3bet preflop.
He might have pocket 22 but I'm pretty sure this guy always checks 22 on the turn to realize his showdown value. That's how nits play these low pocket pairs.

Overall there are just not that many hands that beat. I wrote him in the chat that he has pocket 99 and called anyway.
 
nucl

nucl

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I like your check back on the flop.
You are giving the villain room to bluff and turning your hand into a bluff catcher.
I personally don't see many boats there.But BB calling range is wide at this limits.
Imo 99 and QQ can be excluded because they will probably 3bet pre( maybe not 99).
So the other boats are Q3s witch is reasonable in BB calling range.
93s??? Maybeee but seems unlikely to me.And 33.
A and K flashes won't 4bet all in on the river.
So not much is beating you,and you beat nothing.
From my experience people at those limits won't 4bet shove without a nuted hand.
So I believe you should find a fold there.
 
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doom

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is this zoom or regular table
 
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Blair29

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The problem here is your not beating much that would typically play like this.

JTd is the only hand that springs to mind that might make sense, unless villain is over valuing baby flushes like the 67d 78d.

A lone 3 probably isn't going for the shove or the lead on the river. So I'd be pretty happy to fold here. In fact with the paired board I'd be pretty happy just to call the 40c river bet with the Q high flush. There are just not enough hands you can get value from by raising.
 
thylmanoid

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I think you should have Cbet the flop. It's a dry board, you have top pair weak kicker. i wouldn't be checking that.

If you were ready to call an all-in shove from villian on the river why didn't you just shove when he bet 0.40?
 
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Papier24

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I think you should have Cbet the flop. It's a dry board, you have top pair weak kicker. i wouldn't be checking that.

If you were ready to call an all-in shove from villian on the river why didn't you just shove when he bet 0.40?
Shoving after a 0.40ct bet ? This is just extremly fishy and just dumb against a really tight player. This is only a good play against extremly bad calling stations.
I can't profitably balance my range with any bluffs and only get called by better hands. This is a typical fish move.
 
thylmanoid

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You gave him the initiative on a dry flop. You played the hand badly.

Over-betting all-in on the river is not just a fish strategy.
 
nucl

nucl

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I disagree with thylmanoid.
Checking back this kind a flop with this kind of hand is more profitable.
Because there aren't too many draws and opponent will muck his hand most of the time and only few hands will call there.Some 9x ,some straight draws and of course all the Qx but the rest of the hands will fold,plus you are pot controlling with not such a strong hand.


Shoving to a 0.40c bet is is not profitable in the long run imo.
You will almost get called by better hands and all the worst opponent value hands will fold.
And a Q high flush with a paired board is not such a strong hand to shove but not too weak to just call.
Best play here imo is 3bet-fold.

Sent from my ALE-L21 using CardsChat mobile app
 
Jacki Burkhart

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I’m fine with preflop. If all my raises are getting through Ill expand my raising range and this is certainly in there.

I’m fine with this flop Check back. I think you want to mix it up and be balanced with TPWK. Sometimes Cbet sometimes check back. I’d be more inclined to bet draw heavy flops with TPWK. This flop should be safe to check.

As played on river I like your raise. His 4b is a boat or nothing on this paired Board. He would probably flat your river bet with nut flush. It’s hard to put him on many boats but it’s also rarely a bluff. I think you gotta put him on 99 or 33. That’s only 4 combos but are there 4 combos of bluffs? I don’t think so. Vs some players you can bluff catch here. But I think vs this villain it’s gotta be a gross fold.
 
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