$5 NLHE 6-max: River call?

XXPXXP · Jul 16, 2016

Me(MP) $2.38 - VP:0 PFR:0 AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:-0.07 hands:5
P2(CO) $3.79 - VP: PFR: AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:0
P3(BTN) $5 - VP: PFR: AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:0
P4(SB) $4.66 - VP: PFR: AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:0
P5(BB) $5 - VP: PFR: AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:0
P6(UTG) $2.62 - VP: PFR: AF: W: STL: 3B: CB: N:0

Pre Flop: Me(MP) with [As,Qd]
P6(UTG) calls 0.05, Me(MP) raises 0.22, P2(CO) folds, P3(BTN) folds, P4(SB) calls 0.20, P5(BB) folds, P6(UTG) folds

Flop: (Js,7s,6h) (2 players)
P4(SB) checks, Me(LP) checks

Turn: 3c (2 players)
P4(SB) checks, Me(LP) checks

River: 2h (2 players)
P4(SB) bets 0.10, Me(LP)???

_________________

looks like I am beating 3*4+16*4+3*3
lost to 5*6+16*3 combo?

with pot odds 0.1 to call something round 0.6 pot, with 17% calling correct percentage.

what u guys think?

XXPXXP · Jul 16, 2016

result

I am one tabling...
and decide to use random number to help

no luck hit 20+

think hit something 15...anyway

so luck is against me, I fold...but think it is profitable to call?

DrazaFFT · Jul 16, 2016

why we dont cbet this 3bet pot with 2overs + 2 backdoors? seems like a insta cbet spot imo. As played on flop dont think that he would call a lot here when he checked again so if missed flop bet we should bet turn check back river if we dont improve...

Overall seems too light played IMHO

XXPXXP · Jul 16, 2016

DrazaFFT said:
why we dont cbet this 3bet pot with 2overs + 2 backdoors? seems like a insta cbet spot imo. As played on flop dont think that he would call a lot here when he checked again so if missed flop bet we should bet turn check back river if we dont improve...

Overall seems too light played IMHO

this is an isolation pot[raise limper] not 3bet pot
and Cbet is not good here...
for the reason that...this Cbet is 100% bluff...only drive the worst cards away
the 2nd thing is , I have position, get a free cards seems to be better than Cbet.

the reason is the same for turn card, and besides, if you using any program,
under this boardtexture, AQ generally to say is a little behind his calling range.

about 47% VS 53% his calling range is a little better.

besides if Cbet shows profit here at least to be 40% fold equity, unfortunately, because of this J... add some weak pair in his calling range, his fold equity should less than 40%. Cbet may shows a little profitable in range play..but not this pot.

In general, I don't think it is a good situation to turn my showdown value hand into bluff right here.

MinhANguyen · Jul 17, 2016

C-bet with the As. Either way is fine without As. I prefer checking back without.

AQs can be bet for value here against gutshots, and since we have A high with two streets to go, folding out his equity is good.

XXPXXP · Jul 17, 2016

MinhANguyen said:
C-bet with the As. Either way is fine without As. I prefer checking back without.

AQs can be bet for value here against gutshots, and since we have A high with two streets to go, folding out his equity is good.

I hold [As,Qd] = AQo
besides he is defend from Small blinds, do you think he would continue with gutshot out of postion? and it is Zoom table...not regular table.

XXPXXP · Jul 17, 2016

little off top

everyone here focus on flop Cbet or not
here I think not CBet is correct play.

not argue for that

my question here is river call this small bet or not?

MinhANguyen · Jul 17, 2016

Yes, I am aware we have only AsQx. The A spades gives us additional backdoor equity, takes NFDs out of his range, and we can turn equity.

You give players too much credit. Fish and recreational players do play garbage like 109s from the SB since they are getting a discount. And if they called pre with 109s, they aren't folding a gutshot/opportunity to bluff later streets.

You also miss the fact that although we have the best hand, we can bet to take down the dead money and deny him his equity. Plus if he barrels turn, what's your plan? Call all the way down with A high?

River is a probably a fold. If he wanted to bluff with hands that have no SDV, he'd have bluffed the turn or bet larger on the river the vast majority of the time. Flop is the most interesting street though. If you aren't c-betting AsQx here, I'd think your flop c-bet is too low for 6-max. Mine isn't high, and I do c-bet most lone As here.

IPlay · Jul 17, 2016

Listen to Minh

Villain is probably betting 6x on the river

John A · Jul 17, 2016

XXPXXP said:
little off top

everyone here focus on flop Cbet or not
here I think not CBet is correct play.

not argue for that

my question here is river call this small bet or not?

Because c-betting this flop is the highest EV play given flop texture, your hand, pre-flop and opponents.

River is close. At this level people will bet a wider range as bad bluffs than they should when opponents show weakness. I don't think call / fold is that much difference +/- EV wise. Maybe slightly higher calling, but still, it's close.

XXPXXP · Jul 17, 2016

MinhANguyen said:
Yes, I am aware we have only AsQx. The A spades gives us additional backdoor equity, takes NFDs out of his range, and we can turn equity.

You give players too much credit. Fish and recreational players do play garbage like 109s from the SB since they are getting a discount. And if they called pre with 109s, they aren't folding a gutshot/opportunity to bluff later streets.

You also miss the fact that although we have the best hand, we can bet to take down the dead money and deny him his equity. Plus if he barrels turn, what's your plan? Call all the way down with A high?

River is a probably a fold. If he wanted to bluff with hands that have no SDV, he'd have bluffed the turn or bet larger on the river the vast majority of the time. Flop is the most interesting street though. If you aren't c-betting AsQx here, I'd think your flop c-bet is too low for 6-max. Mine isn't high, and I do c-bet most lone As here.

your reasoning might be true

but my Cbet plan is quite good based on copy of this large data
it runs near 1million hand history
with 5.22BB/9.06 variance...

and according to large data, not Cbet is correct play.

correct me if you have enough data shows Cbet have better BB/100 and less variance. if not ...I still hold the conclusion, Not Cbet in my plan is currently the best.

for the river...I do think there may be K high Q high in his buff range..and middle pair in his value range..but hand is ...at least not polarized.
may be fold is good here.

if on the turn... he leads out...fine I have position, it is really based on my reads...
my plan A fold
my plan B ...turn AQ into bluff, [his range in this case have 40% bluff, if raise his turn donk leading it instantly shows profit] besides bluff some middle pair away like the weak 44,88... by raising his turn bet... just say depends.
I could re present slow-played TPTK, set...and some good hands improved on turn or bluff. he is out of position he needs to make the tough guess for his middle range card...if bluff called, on the river...I could also fold , bluff, or ...if improves on the river, value.

John A · Jul 18, 2016

XXPXXP said:
your reasoning might be true

but my Cbet plan is quite good based on copy of this large data
it runs near 1million hand history
with 5.22BB/9.06 variance...
View attachment 116081
View attachment 116083
and according to large data, not Cbet is correct play.

correct me if you have enough data shows Cbet have better BB/100 and less variance. if not ...I still hold the conclusion, Not Cbet in my plan is currently the best.

for the river...I do think there may be K high Q high in his buff range..and middle pair in his value range..but hand is ...at least not polarized.
may be fold is good here.

if on the turn... he leads out...fine I have position, it is really based on my reads...
my plan A fold
my plan B ...turn AQ into bluff, [his range in this case have 40% bluff, if raise his turn donk leading it instantly shows profit] besides bluff some middle pair away like the weak 44,88... by raising his turn bet... just say depends.
I could re present slow-played TPTK, set...and some good hands improved on turn or bluff. he is out of position he needs to make the tough guess for his middle range card...if bluff called, on the river...I could also fold , bluff, or ...if improves on the river, value.

What is your data based on exactly? Where did you get this, and what filters are applied? It's really really really really hard to get a million recent hands on a specific scenario like this. So I'm not sure what you're basing your info on, but I'd bet a shinky nickle that c-betting here is higher EV.

XXPXXP · Jul 18, 2016

John A said:
What is your data based on exactly? Where did you get this, and what filters are applied? It's really really really really hard to get a million recent hands on a specific scenario like this. So I'm not sure what you're basing your info on, but I'd bet a shinky nickle that c-betting here is higher EV.

then, beat me , if you have better data here.
it is not to say in this single case, AQo is in a range not Cbet here show the higher EV.
if you have better plan , better range(which contains AQo) here VS calling range, and make a cbet on a fairly large sample ... shows the better results.
just post and say , it is higher EV , and it is acceptable.

or else it is called Assume....Cbet is better and don't know actual yet.

John A · Jul 18, 2016

I don't want to beat you. I don't believe in violence. I'm just asking where your data is from and what filters are applied. I don't think you're looking at the proper data. I'm very sure you are not.

XXPXXP · Jul 18, 2016

John A said:
I don't want to beat you. I don't believe in violence. I'm just asking where your data is from and what filters are applied. I don't think you're looking at the proper data. I'm very sure you are not.

Then I think I don't want to share anything with ppl who don't believe.

I am asking how did you get the conclusion Cbet is higher EV in big blinds? Calculated before? right calculated?

Obv, I don't believe you calculate this EV before, just asking you did you ever calculate the EV in big blinds , in cbetting or not cbetting?
I can say I don't believe you do the right caculation. I also can say I am sure you are not doing the right calculation.

OBV I am asking you based on your correct caculation, the EV on Cbet is how many Big blinds? and Not Cbet, the EV is how many big blinds? then you could tell me you conculsion, Cbet or Not , that one is better.

OBV without two things, either big data evidence shows non-variance results, or pure maths results based on possibility, you are always right , Cbet is better. you are the best.

John A · Jul 18, 2016

XXPXXP said:
Then I think I don't want to share anything with ppl who don't believe.

I am asking how did you get the conclusion Cbet is higher EV in big blinds? Calculated before? right calculated?

Obv, I don't believe you calculate this EV before, just asking you did you ever calculate the EV in big blinds , in cbetting or not cbetting?
I can say I don't believe you do the right caculation. I also can say I am sure you are not doing the right calculation.

OBV I am asking you based on your correct caculation, the EV on Cbet is how many Big blinds? and Not Cbet, the EV is how many big blinds? then you could tell me you conculsion, Cbet or Not , that one is better.

OBV without two things, either big data evidence shows non-variance results, or pure maths results based on possibility, you are always right , Cbet is better. you are the best.

You're exhausting. I just asked you a simple question, twice.

And I have looked at the EV of these situations, and analyzed quite a lot of data actually. lol I know for a fact, to get a 900k+ sample of the situation, you'd need about a billion hands of data. I'm pretty sure you don't have that, because it's really not possible, so that's why I was asking you what you were filtering for.

But like I said, I really don't care at this point. You just want to be correct. So you are...

jashiggs · Jul 18, 2016

That escalated! I agree with what john is saying here though. River call as mentioned seems very close i think. Ive not seen much mention of the opponent you were against though so more than likely a fold.

XXPXXP · Jul 18, 2016

John A said:
You're exhausting. I just asked you a simple question, twice.

And I have looked at the EV of these situations, and analyzed quite a lot of data actually. lol I know for a fact, to get a 900k+ sample of the situation, you'd need about a billion hands of data. I'm pretty sure you don't have that, because it's really not possible, so that's why I was asking you what you were filtering for.

But like I said, I really don't care at this point. You just want to be correct. So you are...

you may guess how many hand history I hold in this database for 458GB database of cash hand history... you also can guess how I get it.
try your guess, I am listening...

I am asking you twice...how many Big blinds in your caculation of Cbeting in your expectation, and of that not?
I assume you are no able to calculate even as a coach? or don't have the equation or way to calculate that? do not tell me the EV tools something, that one is not correct here. <-- I have that tool, and compared the result

IPlay · Jul 19, 2016

Wtf is going on in here

MinhANguyen · Jul 19, 2016

Lol @ folding AQo to a turn bet OR turning AQo into a bluff and raising on the turn to rep slowplayed TPTK+ or set on the flop. Sick line dude.

John A · Jul 19, 2016

IPlay said:
Wtf is going on in here

It's a Russian AaronSoto? I dunno... says he's from CA. Someone skyped me this thread, which pretty much says it all, and let's you know when it's time to just click ignore:

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/pok...s-46/sunnys-interesting-hands-archive-289587/

Figaroo2 · Jul 19, 2016

Just a few points/questions
This is 5nl zoom right?
You are using a data base of hands from someone who played 100nl right?
Do you thing the players at those two levels are thinking and playing anything like the same game?
So what hands would YOU as a 5nl player overcall here with in the SB?

I'm a winning reg around these limits and knowing you could be fairly wide isolating a limper in position id be 3betting you with quite a wide polarised range but flatting oop meh not attractive Id want to be fairly strong.
I would only be overcalling OOP here with AJs AQs AQos and all pairs 22-99 to set mine.
So according to my equity calc on that flop AQ only has around 30% equity.
On the turn that drops to 17=18%
If AQ checks it down to the river its beating nothing and chops with AQ

So if you were playing against me you should fold on the river.

As I had no stats on the players I would also default assume I'm playing against a semi decent player pool who are calling a similar but slightly wider range than me

His small river bet is me betting nearly my full range looking for a crumb of value knowing that after 2 checks you are likely pretty weak.

If you were playing against me you should also Cbet the flop because I'm laying down all my 22 33 44 55 to a flop cbet so your contention that you will only fold out worse hands is wrong.
The cbet gets me to lay down half of the paired hands that currently beat your AQ and with only 30% equity that has to be good

XXPXXP · Jul 19, 2016

Figaroo2 said:
Just a few points/questions
This is 5nl zoom right?
You are using a data base of hands from someone who played 100nl right?
Do you thing the players at those two levels are thinking and playing anything like the same game?
So what hands would YOU as a 5nl player overcall here with in the SB?

I'm a winning reg around these limits and knowing you could be fairly wide isolating a limper in position id be 3betting you with quite a wide polarised range but flatting oop meh not attractive Id want to be fairly strong.
I would only be overcalling OOP here with AJs AQs AQos and all pairs 22-99 to set mine.
So according to my equity calc on that flop AQ only has around 30% equity.
On the turn that drops to 17=18%
If AQ checks it down to the river its beating nothing and chops with AQ

So if you were playing against me you should fold on the river.

As I had no stats on the players I would also default assume I'm playing against a semi decent player pool who are calling a similar but slightly wider range than me

His small river bet is me betting nearly my full range looking for a crumb of value knowing that after 2 checks you are likely pretty weak.

If you were playing against me you should also Cbet the flop because I'm laying down all my 22 33 44 55 to a flop cbet so your contention that you will only fold out worse hands is wrong.
The cbet gets me to lay down half of the paired hands that currently beat your AQ and with only 30% equity that has to be good

so let me know the reason you are using 22-33,44 to at SB call ISO raise.

set mining

4.5 BB with effective 50BB stack size. let me know your preflop reason?

set mining at least 15 times of return here look..

4.5*15<50.

beside the preflop action is not finished yet, by SB call ISO, you are sure, that limper not slow play AA-QQ,AK?
against slow played 3bet, I could easy fold. how about you call at SB?

if you insist this call is profitable...then... have nothing to discuss. you are right.
___

if not call for set mining, you are calling small pair for what? showdown?
on this board, you want to fold anything it is dry J high board...

if you want to call small pair showdown, then would say ...good plan to fold Cbet...you are right.

so general to say, you always right here.

Figaroo2 · Jul 19, 2016

Your right, its not a set mining spot, I've only just noticed you are playing with a fishy stack size, i'll just shut up and let you carry on

XXPXXP · Jul 19, 2016

Figaroo2 said:
Your right, its not a set mining spot, I've only just noticed you are playing with a fishy stack size, i'll just shut up and let you carry on

Yeah I have a fishy stack , and I know it is not your fault

I noticed and know the previous minsters in your location is hard to answer ...

questions like this

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...n-admits-difficult-decision-hard-schools.html

I understand you are not smarter than these minsters, and it is not your fault not to count 4.5X15 correctly for my fishy stack

$5 NLHE 6-max: River call?

XXPXXP

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DrazaFFT

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