$5 NLHE 6-max: Quads. River Shove?

$5 NL HE 6-max: Quads. River Shove?

Stacks:
* UTG with $5.48
* MP with $10.07
* CO with $5.40
* BTN with $9.80
* SB with $6.35
* BB with $2.04

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to UTG:Q♦ A♦
Preflop:
* * Hero calls [$0.05]
* * MP raises $0.15 to $0.20
* * 3 players fold.
* * BB calls [$0.15]
* * Hero calls [$0.15]
* * Total folds this street: 3
* * Potsize: $0.62
Flop:
* * A♠ A♣ 2♠
* * BB: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * MP: checks
* * Potsize: $0.62
Turn:
* * A♥
* * BB: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * MP bets [$0.30]
* * Hero:Calls [$0.30]
* * Potsize: $1.22
River:
* * 7♥
* * Hero: ???


MP just arrived about a 4 hands ago and played in only one hand where he raised to .20 the previous hand, taking it down pre-flop. I've folded pre-flop every hand since he arrived.

My thinking is to shove here.

A. I don't know that it is in me to check to him and for him to possibly check back.

B. I bet pot on river, he might fold or just call me, I can't imagine a re-raise.

C. If I check he might not bet with a decent pair, might bet .30 or a tad bit more with nothing/bluffing. If I check and he bets, I re-raise and he'll just call or might actually fold.

If he has a pocket pair or trips I have a decent shot at a huge pot opposed to a $1 gain on the river. I'm not in the micros to sit around for hours and gain a few cents here or there so instead of pot/slightly over-betting the pot, I shove to take the chance that a player at this limit and stack size might be an uber-donk call me with even K-high, 2's, etc or maybe thinking I'm just another uber-donk. Am I wrong in thinking this way?
How would you play it to maximize gains?


It's probably good to note I had a rough time previously in the night. Two times my trips were out-tripped, there were a few bad beats on the river etc, so even though I believe I have made a credible case for shoving, someone tell me that was a severely horrible play, which I tend to think it was.

I don't like openlimping with any hand in any position.

That said, I think your best play for this hand is to bet/bet/bet, although checking the flop is probably OK. But when you do check the flop and it gets checked back, just bet the turn and bet the river. You have the stone cold nuts; build the pot.

What do you think his preflop raising range is?

I would bet pot size here,If he is a bad player he will call u,if u go all in he might not want to risk his stack and u just scare him away.I would give him some value to call.

What a nice problem to have

Lazmansa

Without a read, I'd default to overbetting the pot on the end, but not necessarily shoving. Invariably he'll think you're trying to steal it, and will call with any pair or maybe as low as Q high. Your villain probably has something like 88 here and is likely to call a pot-ish bet, but not all-in.

The bigger question is why you're not raising a hand like AQs from up front while playing these same "donks".

Going for a check raise is not good here just bet pot, it will paid of with most pairs, I know I would pay most pairs

Nobody folds boats, ever. Jam it in and hope for a call. I don't like the spot you got yourself into though. I'm sure Paulson said what I would, so I'm going to say he covered it.

Edit: Paulson totally said what I would, lol.

To the guys saying bet pot/ over pot, why wouldn't you shove? If he's willing to call the potsize+ bet, then I think he'll likely call the necessary part of the time to make a shove the most +EV.

Pot: $1.22
Effective stacks: $4.98

So of course this is dependent upon his opening range, but something like 13% probably isn't too far off. Something like {22+, ATo+, A9s+, KQ, KJs, QJs}

Of this range, we know anything containing an ace is elminated, so that leaves us, {22-KK, KQ, KJs, QJs} Of this range, 25% is air, 75% has a full house of varying strength.

Let's say he'll call the pot size bet with all boats, folding his air.

So the pot bet of $1.25 works out to .75($1.25) = $0.94 in EV

So what % of the time does he have to call to make shoving more +EV?

x($4.98) > $0.94

x > 0.188, so if he will call more than 18.8% of the time, shoving is better.

18.8% of our original villain range is 1.36% of hands. So even if he'll only call with JJ-KK, the shove is more +EV than a pot sized bet.

That's why I like shoving instead of making a "value" bet.

Check he want call if you bet.He try to steal the pot on the turn.

Don't open limp, especially not AQ!
As played I'd have bet the all three streets. At 10NL most pocketpairs are gunna come along for the ride.