$5 NLHE 6-max: QJ suited squeeze with 2 callers

vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Do we like this shove on the turn?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
BB ($10.13)
UTG ($8.82)
MP ($8.93)
CO ($5.17)
Button ($6.77)
Hero (SB) ($5.43)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J
club.gif
, Q
club.gif

1 fold, MP bets $0.12, CO calls $0.12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, MP calls $0.18, CO calls $0.18
Flop: ($0.95) 6
spade.gif
, 3
club.gif
, 8
spade.gif
(3 players)
Hero bets $0.70, 1 fold, CO calls $0.70
Turn: ($2.35) Q
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.35, Hero raises to $4.43 (All-In).......
 
D

DunningKruger

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Larger pre if you're going to squeeze. You also want reason to believe you're going to get enough folds (either pre or otf). I think the post flop play is a bit unusual. What range are you putting this player on when he flat calls otf and then bets the turn? Your perceived range here is probably pretty strong after squeezing.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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bigger pre, bet flop smaller and barrel turn on Q for value mostly.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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thing is i didnt put him on AA KK QQ(definitely not QQ cause i had the 1 queen and the other came up on the turn), so basically im pretty sure im ahead here if he hasnt hit trips. i came too this conclusion when he flat called the mini squeeze pre.

When that spade came up on the turn and i checked i knew it was a great board for him to represent and also my check made me look scarred so i thought im checking shoving this turn and if he has the flush so be it. but if he doesnt there is no way he can call that.

im putting this guy on 10-10,9-9,jj,ak and even if he had the QA i know its not the flush so....this can get some folds.assuming he hasnt made a flush. even trips fold here sometimes right?
 
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Deco

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im putting this guy on 10-10,9-9,jj,ak

I don't believe he bets any of these or gets to this point with AK so I'd rather check/fold than check/call.

Thinking he'll make a play at this board is pretty paranoid, people just don't turn 99 in to a bluff here at 5NL and there isn't enough air to justify a call and certainly not enough folds from his value range to justify a shove.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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I don't believe he bets any of these or gets to this point with AK so I'd rather check/fold than check/call.

Thinking he'll make a play at this board is pretty paranoid, people just don't turn 99 in to a bluff here at 5NL and there isn't enough air to justify a call and certainly not enough folds from his value range to justify a shove.
is it really? well, from my personal experience i have seen many people calling 3 bets at these limits when they should be folding and when the opportunity arises(when the third spade hits the board and i suddenly shut down my engines), they take 1 good shot just in case they can pick it up right there. (with nothing)

i think alot of people at these limits can turn 99 into a bluff here. ive seen it one too many times. esp with the line i took.

im not saying its the best play ever but there is some logic in my reasoning right?
 
Deco

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Your reasoning consists of he will turn 99 in to a bluff because I've seen it happen. Honestly people very rarely do this at 100NL not to mention this isn't a good spot for it seeing as once you check 99 should be ahead of most your range unless he can see your cards.

As for him doing this with nothing, what air can he hold? 79s if he's loose enough pre, maybe T9s if he's loose enough on the flop, there really isn't much. Most his draws have hit leaving us with little air within his range.

His value holding won't get much weaker than AQ and even that he never folds when he has a spade and may not fold even without a spade as he's pretty fishy. We don't even know if he floats it or value bets it so it's a fairly optimistic weakest value hand, when we remove AQ we're left trying to bluff a fishy player who probably has a flush off sets whilst setting him pretty good odds to call.

The few times we run in to a straight draw or an insanely played AK will not make up for us shovelling money in to a very strong range.
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Your reasoning consists of he will turn 99 in to a bluff because I've seen it happen. Honestly people very rarely do this at 100NL not to mention this isn't a good spot for it seeing as once you check 99 should be ahead of most your range unless he can see your cards.

As for him doing this with nothing, what air can he hold? 79s if he's loose enough pre, maybe T9s if he's loose enough on the flop, there really isn't much. Most his draws have hit leaving us with little air within his range.

His value holding won't get much weaker than AQ and even that he never folds when he has a spade and may not fold even without a spade as he's pretty fishy. We don't even know if he floats it or value bets it so it's a fairly optimistic weakest value hand, when we remove AQ we're left trying to bluff a fishy player who probably has a flush off sets whilst setting him pretty good odds to call.

The few times we run in to a straight draw or an insanely played AK will not make up for us shovelling money in to a very strong range.

ok. i hear you. i see what you mean. the times that he is bluffing are way less than the times he is airballing so basically this kind of shove is ev-. are you suggesting i fold here?
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Fold pre!
fold pre when MP makes a not even 3x raise and some guy in the cutoff flat calls?
this situation to me is crying for a squeeze. is it not? i thought this is the definition of the best time to squeeze.(except for the fact that im OOP but still if the squeeze was bigger i could probably take it down right there)
 
Deco

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ok. i hear you. i see what you mean. the times that he is bluffing are way less than the times he is airballing so basically this kind of shove is ev-. are you suggesting i fold here?

If by airballing you mean value betting ye.
Once he bets his range will be (guessing havent done the maths) around 70%flushes + sets, 15% AQ,10%straight draws, 5% bizarre fishy randomness

Once we check and he bets I'm folding ye as none of the stuff I intended on value towning will next to never bet.

bet/fold > c/f > c/c > c/r
 
vinylspiros

vinylspiros

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Yes, sorry typo. By airballing i meant value betting. Ty for all your help and opinion. I see what your saying.
 
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