$5 NLHE 6-max: pot odds question

micromachine

micromachine

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Villain 19/17, 3bet 4%, 60 hands.

Can someone please help me with a pot odds analysis on this hand?

I'm having trouble working out whether I got the right price to call.

If we just assume a flush will win then I have 19% chance of making it on the turn (5.2:1) and I have to call 1.10 to win 3.07 (2.8:1). So obviously the odds are not good (if I have even worked them out correctly!). But then I have the ace (might be an out), and implied odds must be accounted for, and he may be bluffing etc etc etc. How the hell am I supposed to work all that out in the middle of a 4 table session!

Does anyone have a quick method to work out problems like this while playing?

Thanks:D

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5.65)
UTG ($5.08)
MP ($3)
Hero (CO) ($7.31)
Button ($5.05)
SB ($4.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
diamond.gif
, Q
diamond.gif

2 folds, Hero bets $0.15, Button calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.65, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.97) J
club.gif
, J
diamond.gif
, 7
diamond.gif
(3 players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10, 1 fold

Turn: ($4.17) 10
heart.gif
(2 players)
BB bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90
 
micromachine

micromachine

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edit: I meant to say the other 3 aces might be outs rather than my ace might be an out.
 
ben_rhyno

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Are you forgetting that a K makes you broadway?
 
Cafeman

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Am I right in thinking he had KK for you not to count that as an out ;)

With $2 behind on the turn, shove or fold.
 
micromachine

micromachine

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Yes, I was. So, on the river I have a lot of possible outs. It would be good to have the decision at each street evaluated if possible
 
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baudib1

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fold pre, as played raising the flop, as played go all in on the turn. You probably have something like 25-30% equity.
 
micromachine

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Am I right in thinking he had KK for you not to count that as an out

I just forgot. But also I was really only talking about the flop bet evaluation in my intro, hoping we could evaluate the turn decision as well.
 
Cafeman

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It would be good to have the decision at each street evaluated if possible
Yes, sorry.

I would fold pre probably, unless you have BB down as squeeze happy? Given you didn't, I would raise AI on the flop. Given you called, I shove turn, but I'm not liking it. You'll have FE vs AK, but AA/KK/QQ/JJ(eek)/TT(eek) call, and I haven't stoved it, but it's marginal to sad face.
 
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baudib1

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It's kind of a scary board for overpairs, granted he shouldn't have much FE but you never know, people do dumb things.

Really we only need him to fold AK here and we'll be doing well.
 
Cafeman

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It's kind of a scary board for overpairs, granted he shouldn't have much FE but you never know, people do dumb things.

Really we only need him to fold AK here and we'll be doing well.
On the flop? Yeah I agree. By the turn... FE is much reduced imo.
 
micromachine

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Fold pre...I knew that was coming ;)

So at the flop I have 9 diamond outs and potentially 3 Ace outs (lets call it 1 or 2 in case they aren't outs because he has AK) = 10 or 11 outs, which means I have a 38 or 42% chance of making a winning hand.

Even if 38% we have fold equity AND the fact that I have already invested money into the hand (we have to take that into account right?), which make the shove +EV.

As played though, by the turn I have 9 diamond outs, 1 or 2 ace outs and 4 King outs (not sure if they should all be counted though?) = 14 or 15 outs, which means I have a 30 or 32% chance of making the hand. He gives me 3.2:1 odds to call according to my calculations, which equates to about 30% so I have the right price to call. But I suppose it is better just to shove, even though the fold equity is minimal because almost his entire stack is in by this point anyway.
 
Cafeman

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AND the fact that I have already invested money into the hand (we have to take that into account right?), which make the shove +EV.
Not sure what you mean by this? It's no longer 'your money' if it's in the pot right? All you should be considering is what you have to call/bet relative to the pot size and stack sizes.
 
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baudib1

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I don't think you have 30-32% on the turn, it depends on how much air he has. It's still a shove because the pot is so big and the odd chance that he has air or AK.

3-bet bluff range:
If he's totally airballing or a lower flush draw we are ahead.

If he has something like 7x that would be totally sweet because we have 18 outs.

Value range:
We have 27% vs. AA -- 3 combos
We have 25% vs. KK -- 6 combos
We have 34% vs. QQ -- 3 combos
We have 0% vs. JJ, TT -- 4 combos
We have 31% vs. AK -- 12 combos

FWIW we have 60% vs. AQ, which is 9 combos and 25% vs. AJ, which is 4 combos
 
micromachine

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Not sure what you mean by this? It's no longer 'your money' if it's in the pot right? All you should be considering is what you have to call/bet relative to the pot size and stack sizes.

If we were deciding whether to call I can see that the money we have already invested shouldn't be considered. But if we are shoving doesn't the money already invested factor into the decision? We are more inclined to make a marginal shove (chances of making the hand are ~50% for example) if we have already invested $3 compared to a situation where we have already invested only $1. Or am I wrong?
 
Cafeman

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If we were deciding whether to call I can see that the money we have already invested shouldn't be considered. But if we are shoving doesn't the money already invested factor into the decision? We are more inclined to make a marginal shove (chances of making the hand are ~50% for example) if we have already invested $3 compared to a situation where we have already invested only $1. Or am I wrong?
As the amount you've 'invested' correlates strongly with the pot size, then you're not wrong as such, but only in as much as you are considering all the things I mentioned above, and not considering how emotionally attached you are to your 'investment'.
 
micromachine

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As the amount you've 'invested' correlates strongly with the pot size, then you're not wrong as such, but only in as much as you are considering all the things I mentioned above, and not considering how emotionally attached you are to your 'investment'.

Yeh see what you mean, the amount I have put is proportional to the size of the pot, so just use the size of the pot in the calculations.
 
ben_rhyno

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I totally disagree with folding pre, we are over 100bb's deep, in position with AQs. We are not 4-betting/calling off so flatting this IP is fine to me.
On this flop I would raise and call off vs a shove. On the turn here we have to shove because we can't call turn fold brick river.
 
WVHillbilly

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I totally disagree with folding pre, we are over 100bb's deep, in position with AQs. We are not 4-betting/calling off so flatting this IP is fine to me.
On this flop I would raise and call off vs a shove. On the turn here we have to shove because we can't call turn fold brick river.
We should fold pre because our hand has huge reverse implied odds.

Shove the flop.
 
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baudib1

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Not calling vs. a guy who has such a small 3-bet range, we are crushed and never getting paid off by worse barring KJT flop or something.
 
ben_rhyno

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I don't have stove at work but what is 4%? JJ+, AK?
 
ben_rhyno

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Hmmm, even if you 2 say it's wrong I'm flatting this close to 100% in game. 99-JJ aren't giving up on Q high flops and if we flop a draw we have fairly high implied odds against a strong range. It's fine to call IMO if we can fold top pair vs aggression
 
WVHillbilly

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Hmmm, even if you 2 say it's wrong I'm flatting this close to 100% in game. 99-JJ aren't giving up on Q high flops and if we flop a draw we have fairly high implied odds against a strong range. It's fine to call IMO if we can fold top pair vs aggression
Take a look at your bottom line in pots were you've flatted a 3bet with AQ. Won't be pretty.
 
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baudib1

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I will say that if this guy is ever expanding his 3-bet range, it would be in this spot.
 
ben_rhyno

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Plus he's 3betting 4.3x our open from the BB, this looks like a typical resteal but 60hands is not a sample but BB resteal vs CO or LP open would be a good stat to have but obv won't have converged, unless every 3-bet he has done is from the BB.
 
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