$5 NLHE 6-max: $ : Over pair paired board played passive – can I fold?

B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Q1: Can hero fold river, or is that too nitty?

Villain: TAG with not enough bluffs, better than average tag but also too tight and value heavy (behavior extended from pool tendencies). hands 61, VPIP 21, PFR 17, RFI 24, 3bet 0/14, CB 1/3, Fold to CB ½, AFq 4/10, Flop Afq 1/5, Turn Afq 2/3, Rive Afq 1/2

Hero: Passive side nitty, around 20/17 3bet 8, Afq ~50

His stats do not seem to indicate a player that can bluff river enough and the board is somewhat dry. However hero is a prime candidate to make a bluff like that against. When villain bets that amount his most likely hand would be AJ, but hero has AA. His combos for value then would be something like AJ {2}, 88 {3}, 44 { 3}, goodshit {1}. Semi bluff potential 9T {16}.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 116 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: 70.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
BB: 108.4 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 108)
UTG: 118.6 BB
Hero (MP): 180.4 BB
CO: 143 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) J 8 J
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 4
BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

River: (16.4 BB, 2 players) 5
BB bets 21 BB
 
Last edited:
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

Visionary
Bronze Level
Joined
Aug 17, 2014
Total posts
586
Awards
2
Chips
0
Call absolutely! Hero has slow played his AA all the way. so Villain could easily believe TT, 99, 98, 87 are good. He could also semi bluffed the turn with a straight or flush draw that didn't come in and realizes he needs to bet to win. The over shove isn't that big and if she was planning to get it in she should have bet pot on the turn to set up the shove.

The problem I see is that Hero had the lead and checked the flop. Why? If the plan was to induce bets then Hero has to call the river. I would 1/2 pot c-bet the flop ever time. If Hero is re raised on the flop now is the time to decide to fold.

A check turn call river would be my plan if Villain calls.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
Interesting hand, the river is probably a fold, but I likely call it off in the heat of battle.

The real take home message here though is to quit playing on Stars. Are there even fish on that site?
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Villain could easily believe TT, 99, 98, 87 are good.
Why would he over bet for value with these hands? Even KK would go for reasonable size imo.

Interesting hand, the river is probably a fold, but I likely call it off in the heat of battle.

The real take home message here though is to quit playing on Stars. Are there even fish on that site?
I take this that if we fold we are borderline nits =) And don’t you worry full of fish and even nits are funny post flop, easy games. Maybe not that many passive calling stations because they don’t survive long enough (or they play higher at 10NL) given it's 6max and zoom.
 
TenJack

TenJack

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 29, 2018
Total posts
413
Chips
0
Heres what I think:

I think the line you take is okay, really not a great flop to lead with Aces, the turn is not a great one to raise, the river is probably a sigh call for me. I feel like if he knows you are more passive, he is going to be value-betting his Jx and boats here more frequently than using an overbet. Why would he overbet something like KJ here? He is fairly certain he has the best hand so why not go for value from AA, QQ, etc.

I don't necessarily agree with Bigfinn that we "slowplayed" our aces. I think that the check, flat call, (fold?) line is done less to slowplay and more perhaps to pot-control/play it safe, etc.
 
M

micromoi

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Total posts
502
Chips
0
why thinking about the fold easy call, but also why u played the hand very passively u cant just assume that vilain have a J u need to bet to gather informations.
 
S

scubed

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 17, 2018
Total posts
818
Awards
1
Chips
1
Q1: Can hero fold river, or is that too nitty?
I agree with you that Villain could have a J. Villain's flat call pre-flop puts a lot of J {AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9} in his range and also medium/small pairs {22-99} and Ax. I don't think JJ can be in his range because I think he 3-bets TT+, AQ,+ pre-flop.

Why doesn't Hero bet the flop for value? If Villain calls (or check-raises) then Villain's continuing range can likely be narrowed to AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, 88. Having this extra information would make Hero's future decisions (including possible river fold) easier.

As played I think that, yes, Hero can fold on the river.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
If Villain calls (or check-raises) then Villain's continuing range can likely be narrowed to AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, 88.
So we bet to learn if he has Jx or set? Are you sure that is the way to go lol? Don’t get me wrong we can bet too (for value), but not to be called by Jx or set, but pairs and occasionally stubborn high ace and 9T, maybe there are other draws he likes to call too.
 
Last edited:
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Why would he overbet something like KJ here? He is fairly certain he has the best hand so why not go for value from AA, QQ, etc.

Yes. Villain's 'should have' value combos to that sizing are thin. I can see him doing this with sets more than not, hoping I have J or then again for bluff.

Also, Gabe16 suggested strategy with similarities to this hand on the river vs tight player and promised 100% folds =) in my last hand analysis question.
 
Last edited:
S

scubed

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 17, 2018
Total posts
818
Awards
1
Chips
1
So we bet to learn if he has Jx or set? Are you sure that is the way to go lol? Don’t get me wrong we can bet too (for value), but not to be called by Jx or set, but pairs and occasionally stubborn high ace and 9T, maybe there are other draws he likes to call too.
Can you teach me more clearly why you lol and asked if I was sure that is the way to go? Are you thinking that keeping the betting lead on the flop will not be as +EV as check/calling? OR are you putting the Villain on precisely a J when he checks the flop (unlikely) so you think that the passive approach is the way to get to showdown most cheaply? OR?


Yes, I was thinking bet for value and to build the pot. You want worse hands like 9T, QT, KT, AQ etc to call. Combinatorially, he probably doesn't have a J much less quad J. A lot of players will check-raise a board like that with trips to protect from the draw. I think a value bet on the flop provides you with more information for the decision on the turn and a bigger pot on the river to win!

I am excited for you to reveal the result!
 
J

julianjjboy

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 3, 2018
Total posts
41
Chips
0
I think fold this river is not a mistake, because you are oop, if you have J ,you will bet flop, bet turn and river to get value, if you check flop, turn SO passive, BB can make sure there are not any J in you hands,so you absolutely can fold this river.
 
Folding in Poker
Top