$5 NLHE 6-max: Nut flush draw

$5 NL HE 6-max: Nut flush draw

SB was 50/3 and folded to cbet 71% of the time over a 31 hand sample. Was basically playing like a calling station, yes 71% seems like a lot of folds on the flop but most of his flop calls where against me button vs bb I was getting called 3 streets with bottom pair or better and I was never raised.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($4.77)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($7.19)
BB ($1.71)
UTG ($5.86)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , J
1 fold, MP calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.60) 9 , 5 , 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.20) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

River: ($2.30) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3.90 (All-In), SB calls $3.05

Total pot: $10.10 | Rake: $0.67

The flop bet was small, but I wanted action (i.e. this is an opponent I can stack easily).

A few things I wouldn't mind getting an opinion on:

Are the A and J outs live on the turn?
If you catch them on the river and it's checked to you, it's a standard value bet? If SB bets into you on the river, how big a bet do you call if you hit the A or J?

My read in this hand when SB bet the turn was that I needed the flush to be ahead and I believe SB almost always has a 7 and occasionally a set or two pair, I didn't like the 9 pairing on the river but thought it was still an obvious value shove. Do you agree/disagree with this assessment?

Your flop bet is fine. You bet 1/2 the pot, nice value bet to build the pot or semi-bluff to try and take it down if you don't hit.

Whenever you flop a flush draw, you have to always think like this:
There are 13 of a suit in the deck. 2 of them are in your hand, 2 are on the board. 13 - 4 = 9. So you have 9 outs.

To carry that farther, you can figure your hand odds. You have 9 outs to make your flush. (I'm not going to count the 6 outs for hitting top pair here, just the flush because that more directly relates to your question).
On the flop you have 2 more streets to come. 9x4 (rough estimate of calculating hand odds) is 36. So you have a 36% chance of hitting your flush.

On the turn you only have 1 card to come so you take your outs (9) and multiple them by 2. Now your odds of making your flush just dropped to 18%.

BB bet about 1/2 the pot on turn. Calling is okay here. Reraising is also okay depending on your opponent. I'd probably just call if he is a calling station though, Only reraise if you think it will get him to fold.

You hit your flush on river so might as well reraise all in as you did to try and stack him.

Nicely done.

thepokerkid123 said:

SB was 50/3 and folded to cbet 71% of the time over a 31 hand sample. Was basically playing like a calling station, yes 71% seems like a lot of folds on the flop but most of his flop calls where against me button vs bb I was getting called 3 streets with bottom pair or better and I was never raised.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($4.77)
Hero (CO) ($5)
Button ($5)
SB ($7.19)
BB ($1.71)
UTG ($5.86)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, J

1 fold, MP calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.60) 9

, 5

, 8

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.20) 6

(2 players)
SB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

River: ($2.30) 9

(2 players)
SB bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3.90 (All-In), SB calls $3.05

Total pot: $10.10 | Rake: $0.67

The flop bet was small, but I wanted action (i.e. this is an opponent I can stack easily).

A few things I wouldn't mind getting an opinion on:

Are the A and J outs live on the turn?
If you catch them on the river and it's checked to you, it's a standard value bet? If SB bets into you on the river, how big a bet do you call if you hit the A or J?

My read in this hand when SB bet the turn was that I needed the flush to be ahead and I believe SB almost always has a 7 and occasionally a set or two pair, I didn't like the 9 pairing on the river but thought it was still an obvious value shove. Do you agree/disagree with this assessment?

Click to expand...

1. Against a player like that most of the time, YES - your A & J can be counted as outs on the turn.

2. My read on a player like that (loose, non aggressive, calling station) would be that he hit either the straight, open ended straight draw or he might think his top pair is good on the turn. No reason to raise here b/c you know you will get called, he's not folding here, so you have no fold equity. Calling in this situation was fine, imo.

3. If SB bets into river and I didn't hit the flush just top pair I'm probably only calling max 1/2 pot bet, maybe not even that. Typically, if a non aggressive calling station bets more than 1/2 pot, out of position, on the river, they probably have close to the nuts.

On a side note, I think that river shove with that board was a little risky, given the villain's range, he could have been holding 9-6, etc. But that's just me.

Kasanova King said:

If SB bets into river and I didn't hit the flush just top pair I'm probably only calling max 1/2 pot bet, maybe not even that. Typically, if a non aggressive calling station bets more than 1/2 pot, out of position, on the river, they probably have close to the nuts.

Click to expand...

I agree with this for a simple reason. Been grinding the micro stakes for a few months now and the one big tell you can almost, like 90% certain rely on is their betting.

Quite simply when they bet it, and bet it good they have it, when they dont bet it or bet it timid they dont. Iv folded top 2 pair against calling stations on the river when I am out of nowhere donked into for a 3/4 or full pot bet. This happens very rarely but their betting (mine haha) is literally them flipping their cards over and giving you the option of calling or folding.