$5 NLHE 6-max: Nitty fold with QQ overpair

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5NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. UTG villain is a 26/18 over 158 hands with a 6% 3bet and 25% Fv3bet. CO villain is a 23/15 over 248 hands with a 9% 3bet and 50% Fv3bet.

BTN: $5.71
SB: $10.22
Hero (BB): $24.11
UTG: $5.12
MP: $6.25
CO: $5.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with Q:diamond: Q:spade:
UTG raises to $0.15, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.65, UTG calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.97) 2:club: T:club: 4:heart: (3 players)
Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1, CO folds

Turn: ($3.97) 4:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.52, Hero folds

What do you think about the way hero played? My plan was to shove all non-club turn cards. Unfortunately, a club came OTT. The bet that UTG made just looked so much like either a flush or boat. I couldn't tell what else he would call a 3bet preflop with, call a flop Cbet with and then bet 1/2 his remaining stack with on the turn. I would've thought that a weak pair like 55-99 would just check back the turn and try to reach showdown cheaply. Since I had no club, I felt that I had to fold my overpair. Thoughts?
 
TimovieMan

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I'm assuming he'll 4-bet QQ+.

His range here is basically ATs/JJ/TT/44/22/AcKc/AcQc/AcJc/KcQc/QcJc.

Still gives us 41% equity, but we're hating our life if another club comes, or an A, or if he shoves the river, because I'm not sure he'll do that with hands like ATs.

I'd have liked it better had he shoved now.

Tight fold, but I think it's OK.
 
c9h13no3

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I hate this. Villain's range is so much wider than flushes, boats, and slowplayed AxAc type stuff.
 
IPlay

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Ehhhh, don't like this very much.

He could be betting with weak pairs to deny overs/single club hands a free card and he does have a low fv3b but I really don't see him having 22/44 here very often so only real boat is 1010 and he probably doesn't have a lot of flushes in a 3 bet pot either.

Does a 26/18 raise 22/44 UTG or does he limp?

I think we should just jam this turn considering we have less then a 1PSB
 
TimovieMan

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Does a 26/18 raise 22/44 UTG or does he limp?
I'm 26/20 and I raise 22/44 UTG. I don't think a 26/18 ever open-limps. He's probably just a tad too loose in the blinds to explain the gap between VPIP and PFR.
 
mbrenneman0

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I think we should just jam this turn considering we have less then a 1PSB

I think stack to pot ratio is pretty key here, a shove only costs us approximately $3.50 into 11$ so we only need to be a head of him 30% of the time for this to be a profitable spot to shove. (this is just in my head math so its probably not perfect). The question is just how often are we ahead of him here and with that I'm not much help
 
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He's more likely to have 10,X hands here than he is to have a random 4.
Clubs are certainly a possibility, but when your facing less than 1/2 pot bet with his stack then this is certainly not a fold.
 
mbrenneman0

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Also I'm not a fan of the check on the turn
 
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The reason I bet only $1 on the flop instead of about $1.50 was specifically so that I could get away from my hand in case a club hit the turn, rather than making myself pot-committed.

I don't think that there are any more than maybe 9 combos of 1 club hands in the villains' range that we have to worry about, given the line he took (probably 77-99 is about it). And each 1 club combo only has a ~20% chance of improving on the river. Therefore, I don't think that we have to worry about checking the turn to "let the villain catch up". Most of the time, the villain has either 2 clubs or 0 clubs (either a suited combo with clubs or a suited combo without clubs or a pocket pair that already hit a boat/quads).

Going by the pot odds we're getting, we need to win at least 33% of the time to justify shoving the turn (assuming the villain never folds).

Are we really ahead here enough of the time to justify shoving the turn? I can count 25 combos that the villain could realistically have that beat us: 1 combo of quads (44), 6 combos of boats (3 x 22 and 3 x TT) and 16 combos of flushes (A3, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ, QJ, J9, 98, 87, 76). I can see the UTG villain flat-calling with all of these hands under the expectation that the CO villain will also flat-call behind and he'll get decent implied odds.

What about hands which beat us: there are 6 combos of JJ, 3 combos of ATs, 3 combos of KTs, 1 combo of QTs, 3 combos of JTs, 3 combos of T9s, 6 combos of 99, 6 combos of 88 and 6 combos of 77. I would expect anything below about 77 is going to fold the flop, since the UTG villain has to worry about the CO villain acting behind. So that makes 37 combos in total.

Now, there might appear to be 37 combos of hands that we beat that would get to the turn this way, but what percentage of the time do you expect these hands to be betting? Moreso, what percentage of the time is the villain going to bet so small instead of shoving? It doesn't look like he's not making this bet for fold equity. It looks exactly like he wants to have a "bet some now, bet the rest on the river" mentality, as if he wants to encourage me to call and doesn't want to scare me off a hand. There's a chance he does this with any random Tx hand, but I'm going to guess that that chance is somewhere around the 25% mark (the other 75% of the time he either checks back or shoves). So that means he's only doing this with 9 combos on average. This just looks like a boat/quads/flush that doesn't want to scare me into folding far more often than a Tx hand or low pocket pair betting for protection.

Let's also suppose that we have very little equity when we're behind and almost 100% equity when we're ahead (the equity probably evens itself out anyway, so we can just simplify things to winning vs losing on the turn). That means that we can expect to win 9/34 times but expect to lose 25/34 times. We're not ahead 33% of the time and thus we should fold to his turn bet.

Is there anything wrong with the logic I used? I obviously didn't do all this maths in my head at the time of making the decision, but I did guess that there were a lot of flush combos in his range and his flop calling range can't be too wide, given the CO villain acting behind. And the sizing of the turn bet just looked so suspicious to me, like he really wanted me to call. I'm not usually this nitty, but it just looked like I was beaten so often on this board texture, given the action.
 
IPlay

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I think you are giving villain too wide of a range and I also think you are thinking he checks back more hands then he does.

You have underrepped your hand and now villain may think his pair hands are ahead so he is going to bet small to get value from your AQ/AK hands.
 
mbrenneman0

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The reason I bet only $1 on the flop instead of about $1.50 was specifically so that I could get away from my hand in case a club hit the turn, rather than making myself pot-committed.
The reason you bet $1.50 is incase he's on a flush draw. Anytime a villain calls with the wrong odds to continue, you win in an EV sense.

I don't think that there are any more than maybe 9 combos of 1 club hands in the villains' range that we have to worry about, given the line he took (probably 77-99 is about it). And each 1 club combo only has a ~20% chance of improving on the river. Therefore, I don't think that we have to worry about checking the turn to "let the villain catch up". Most of the time, the villain has either 2 clubs or 0 clubs (either a suited combo with clubs or a suited combo without clubs or a pocket pair that already hit a boat/quads).

Going by the pot odds we're getting, we need to win at least 33% of the time to justify shoving the turn (assuming the villain never folds).

Are we really ahead here enough of the time to justify shoving the turn? I can count 25 combos that the villain could realistically have that beat us: 1 combo of quads (44), 6 combos of boats (3 x 22 and 3 x TT) and 16 combos of flushes (A3, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9, AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ, QJ, J9, 98, 87, 76). I can see the UTG villain flat-calling with all of these hands under the expectation that the CO villain will also flat-call behind and he'll get decent implied odds.

What about hands which beat us: there are 6 combos of JJ, 3 combos of ATs, 3 combos of KTs, 1 combo of QTs, 3 combos of JTs, 3 combos of T9s, 6 combos of 99, 6 combos of 88 and 6 combos of 77. I would expect anything below about 77 is going to fold the flop, since the UTG villain has to worry about the CO villain acting behind. So that makes 37 combos in total.

Now, there might appear to be 37 combos of hands that we beat that would get to the turn this way, but what percentage of the time do you expect these hands to be betting? Moreso, what percentage of the time is the villain going to bet so small instead of shoving? It doesn't look like he's not making this bet for fold equity. It looks exactly like he wants to have a "bet some now, bet the rest on the river" mentality, as if he wants to encourage me to call and doesn't want to scare me off a hand. There's a chance he does this with any random Tx hand, but I'm going to guess that that chance is somewhere around the 25% mark (the other 75% of the time he either checks back or shoves). So that means he's only doing this with 9 combos on average. This just looks like a boat/quads/flush that doesn't want to scare me into folding far more often than a Tx hand or low pocket pair betting for protection.

Let's also suppose that we have very little equity when we're behind and almost 100% equity when we're ahead (the equity probably evens itself out anyway, so we can just simplify things to winning vs losing on the turn). That means that we can expect to win 9/34 times but expect to lose 25/34 times. We're not ahead 33% of the time and thus we should fold to his turn bet.

Is there anything wrong with the logic I used? I obviously didn't do all this maths in my head at the time of making the decision, but I did guess that there were a lot of flush combos in his range and his flop calling range can't be too wide, given the CO villain acting behind. And the sizing of the turn bet just looked so suspicious to me, like he really wanted me to call. I'm not usually this nitty, but it just looked like I was beaten so often on this board texture, given the action.
You're ignoring the number of bluffs in villains range on this turn. If I'm villain I'm bluffing this turn every time. Your line basically tells villain "I don't have anything and I'm afraid of the flush"

And I think he's calling the flop bet with almost all of his 3bet calling range which includes a lot of non club overs
 
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The reason you bet $1.50 is incase he's on a flush draw. Anytime a villain calls with the wrong odds to continue, you win in an EV sense.


You're ignoring the number of bluffs in villains range on this turn. If I'm villain I'm bluffing this turn every time. Your line basically tells villain "I don't have anything and I'm afraid of the flush"

And I think he's calling the flop bet with almost all of his 3bet calling range which includes a lot of non club overs

This.
 
Figaroo2

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To assist with ranging him it is also useful to know how often you are squeezing and three betting generally from the blinds.

Not much 22 44 in his range here for me, a decent player is folding 22-55 most of the time to your sizing, maybe if he was deeper stacked with you.

In position as a default Id give range him 66+ AJs, AQ, AK and tighten or widen it depending on dynamics and how often I've been 3 betting from the blinds. Personally I dump the JQ JT T9 suited hands to your sizing but others will still play them. 158 hands isn't a great sample to judge how often someone folds to a 3 bet.
No need for him to get tricky flatting AA KK, against your preflop sizing those hands are usually just 4 betting looking to gii, especially KK.

This means we are really only behind TT on the flop but its only 3 combos against all his AK AQ AJs JJ 99 88 77 66 and any other suited connectors he migh play.
If I'm in his shoes I'm calling your flop sizing in position with all my high card combos with a high club for 2 overs and a back door flush and all my pairs 88+
I think its a bit too nitty to give up yet.
If you were in his shoes with JJ with or without a club are you giving up on the flop bearing in mind how much AK AQ you have in the BB here?
Once you check the turn he probably thinks you have whiffed AK and he's betting all his mid pairs to protect against an A or K arriving on the end...
I'm not checking behind with my mid pairs here, especially if I now have a flush draw. A half pot after you check is fine to get you to lay down your AK here, he is going to be semi-bluffing a fair amount here, he only needs to bet enough to charge your draws.

So betting bigger 2/3 to 3/4 on the flop to drive away his overcard hands and get value from 88 99 JJ looks best for the QQ.
I'm not overly concerned about the CO who is calling with a wide range with implied odds.

As played I don't think we need to be scared of many flush draws coming in here on the turn.
You can pot control the turn if you want, but you give up control of the hand and open his bluffing range wide open. Not recommended, I'd rather just double barrel half pot on the turn folding to a raise and evaluate the river card as appropriate.
 
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To assist with ranging him it is also useful to know how often you are squeezing and three betting generally from the blinds.

Not much 22 44 in his range here for me, a decent player is folding 22-55 most of the time to your sizing, maybe if he was deeper stacked with you.

In position as a default Id give range him 66+ AJs, AQ, AK and tighten or widen it depending on dynamics and how often I've been 3 betting from the blinds. Personally I dump the JQ JT T9 suited hands to your sizing but others will still play them. 158 hands isn't a great sample to judge how often someone folds to a 3 bet.

I gave him a wide range because his Fv3bet is only 25% (very low) and his stats indicate that he probably does have pocket pairs as low as 22 in his UTG opening range.

And if the villain is going to bet the turn with all his 1 pair hands (like 88 or KTs for example), then doesn't it make more sense for me to check-shove the turn, to let him bluff (or semi-bluff)? And how does a hand like AQ/AK call the flop Cbet to begin with if he doesn't have 2 clubs?

From the EV perspective, just by betting $1 on the flop with the intention of shoving all non-club turn cards, I'm making it unprofitable for anyone to continue with a flush draw. They are calling $1 OTF to win a pot of less than $4, but the breakeven point is $5 (due to a 20% chance of hitting their flush OTT), so it's hard for them to call unless they believe they have good implied odds the times when they hit their flush.

So then I should be check-shoving the turn instead of barreling? To make my hand consistent with the AK/AQ story?
 
TimovieMan

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so it's hard for them to call unless they believe they have good implied odds the times when they hit their flush.
They always do on the flop, because if they hit the turn they have two streets to get value from their hand. Or are you folding your entire range if a third flush card falls?
 
6

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They always do on the flop, because if they hit the turn they have two streets to get value from their hand. Or are you folding your entire range if a third flush card falls?

It's pretty much breakeven for them, because I'll only stack off about 1/3rd of my range once the third club hits, and they need to add about a further $1.20 to the pot in implied odds on later streets to make the flop call breakeven. Given that they only have about $3.50 behind after the flop call, that makes their implied odds breakeven on the flop.

And if their implied odds are breakeven on the flop, then I win the sunk costs in terms of EV. What I mean by that is: if I'm giving them a price on the flop that is breakeven for them (has zero expected value), then any money they've already put in the pot previously (preflop) is lost and has made a zero return. So that's +EV for me.
 
mbrenneman0

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From the EV perspective, just by betting $1 on the flop with the intention of shoving all non-club turn cards, I'm making it unprofitable for anyone to continue with a flush draw.

Your intention to shove the turn only makes it unprofitable for them to see the river. it is profitable for them to see the turn card... if they have two clubs which we have no idea if they do or not because we didnt narrow his range at all with the $1 bet.
 
Figaroo2

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I gave him a wide range because his Fv3bet is only 25% (very low) and his stats indicate that he probably does have pocket pairs as low as 22 in his UTG opening range.

And if the villain is going to bet the turn with all his 1 pair hands (like 88 or KTs for example), then doesn't it make more sense for me to check-shove the turn, to let him bluff (or semi-bluff)? And how does a hand like AQ/AK call the flop Cbet to begin with if he doesn't have 2 clubs?

From the EV perspective, just by betting $1 on the flop with the intention of shoving all non-club turn cards, I'm making it unprofitable for anyone to continue with a flush draw. They are calling $1 OTF to win a pot of less than $4, but the breakeven point is $5 (due to a 20% chance of hitting their flush OTT), so it's hard for them to call unless they believe they have good implied odds the times when they hit their flush.

So then I should be check-shoving the turn instead of barreling? To make my hand consistent with the AK/AQ story?

Just because 22-55 are in their opening range doesn't mean they are calling 3 bets with them at 100bb effective.
I have looked at calling 3 bets with small pairs and it's a losing play for me and probably most others at 100bb stacks. Anyone with some decent coaching behind them will be folding their small pairs to your 3 bet
All I'm saying is I'll call your 3 bet with AK AQ and if one of those gives me a back door flush draw I'm calling your cbet sizing, floating you and looking to take it away from you on turn or river when you check.
If you bet bigger on the flop you are shrinking the spr. This makes floating less enticing as pot commitment issues arise on the turn rather than the river.
So your smaller flop sizing sits better with check shoving the turn as one way to play it.
 
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IPlay

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You are looking at stats too individually. Sure his fv3b is 25% over a small sample but his vpips/PFR is 26/18 so it is hard for him to show up with 22/44 here, especially with the 4 on the turn.

GTO line is just jamming turn.
 
Figaroo2

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You are looking at stats too individually. Sure his fv3b is 25% over a small sample but his vpips/PFR is 26/18 so it is hard for him to show up with 22/44 here, especially with the 4 on the turn.

GTO line is just jamming turn.

+1 sounds good to me
 
Aces2w1n

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soon as we can have villains range tx hands and Ac x hands its a standard shove... we will behind sometimes but price is too good
 
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