5NL QJs hand review
Hello again alipalip!
Pre-flop: Clearly, the QJs is a raise here. When we get 3-bet by the BB, this is a perfect spot to flat. We can't really use his 3-bet statistic because the sample size isn't big enough (I'd want at least 100). From his basic stats, he seems like quite a Loose-Aggressive player though, so I think it unlikely he's only 3-betting premium hands. It's always important to start thinking about ranges as soon as you get any information, so let's see. We'll take the widest range he's likely to have, so he may not have some of these hands all of the time in his range, but we don't want to rule them out until we're sure and have more information on him. Seems like TT+, AK, AJs+, KQs and QJs is realistic. I expect it to often be a little tighter than this though.
Our hand flops well, we're IP and the BB has a decently wide range, so this is a great spot to call.
Flop: This is a very wet board, and pretty scary for a big pair. Nevertheless, he leads out quite large (for a 3-bet pot). Since this board hits your perceived range more than it hits his, I suspect he has a legitimate hand most of the time here. He'll bet his flush draws, overpairs and sometimes a hand like AK, although he'll often check his missed hands on this board.
I think his range for betting here is mainly TT+, with a small amount of AK and an occasional flush draw (KhQh, AhQh).
Raising is better than folding, but worse than calling here because, as previously mentioned, he often has a legitimate hand which he won't fold when he makes this bet. Since straight draws are less obvious than flush draws, and therefore have better implied odds, you should call here, because you'll win a lot of money from a big pair if you hit a K. However, the 8 doesn't have any implied odds because it'll put 789T on board, which would scare an overpair away instantly. You also have backdoor clubs going for you. You're getting 2.7 to 1, so you should make the call.
Turn: This is a really good turn. It gives you an OESFD! It does pair the board, but he's very unlikely to have made a boat (except possibly TT) here, so it shouldn't concern you. You now have 14 outs, 6 to the straight, 6 to the flush and 2 to the straight flush. That gives you a 31% chance to make your hand by the river. It's somewhat surprising that the BB checks, and makes it more likely he has a missed hand like AK, or a flush draw. I actually think both betting and checking are fine here. I actually prefer a check personally, and the reason is this. When we check back, if we hit, we've disguised our hand somewhat, and we'll almost certainly get a bet out of TT+. If we miss, and he bets we'll have to fold, because he'll usually have TT+, BUT if he has one of these hands he will call the turn bet anyway, so by checking we lose the minimum when we miss our draw and we're against a big pair. If we bet the turn and miss, we'll have to X/F the river anyway, the only difference being we'll be an extra $1 and change out of pocket.
If we bet the turn (and I like your sizing, we can fold out AK with this small sizing) we fold AK out, but if he has this hand or a missed flush draw he'll probably X/F the river anyway to a bet.
I'm not sure how much sense that makes, if you want me to try and explain it better just say! Anyway, that's why I prefer a check.
As played, his X/R shove totally confuses me, if I'm honest. I would have expected him to bet the turn with TT+ for value against draws, and I'd expect him to check AK and flush draws l, but I wouldn't expect him to X/R with them! I think what's going on here is he checked with a big pair TT+ because he's (rightly) put you on a draw and thinks you'll bet it, so he figures this is how he can get the money in right now before the draws come in. It's not a bad play, but if that is the case it's surprisingly advanced thinking for a 5NL player.
All that remains is for us to do the maths. We have 31% equity against TT+. We have to put $2.84 in to a total pot of $7.18. That means our pot odds
are 2.53:1. In short, this means that we can call up to $3.36 profitably, and seeing as the bet is only $2.84 to us, this call is mathematically proven to be profitable. It may not feel like it when you lose 68% of the time though! You clearly realised this though, that's good play!
Obviously you got lucky and hit the river but you made the right call and got rewarded. I'm actually a bit confused about what he has here, but I can never resist making a prediction. I'm going to go for KK.