$5 NLHE 6-max: Monster draw oop 3 bet pot

Figaroo2

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Simple question... as we are oop do we check raise shove or just straight shove?

poker stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players ZOOM
BTN: $5.11 (102.2 bb) (3 bet 100% in 3 hands)
SB: $2.18 (43.6 bb)
BB: $7.63 (152.6 bb)
UTG: $7.44 (148.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $4.85 (97 bb)
CO: $4.32 (86.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jd Td
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN raises to $0.65, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, CO folds

Flop: ($1.52) 9d 5s 8d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.20, BTN folds

I'm not sure he is going to bet he looks like a three bet or nothing player but should we give him the chance? If he cbets say $1 he has 1.65 about a third of his stack invested and might stack off getting 2-1
I have a horrid record in hitting my monster draws (recently lost 8 won 1) which probably pushed me to think max fold equity and shove.
 
Eatscake

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First of all fold pre. The raise it huge and you're OOP with a drawing hand that could be dominated if hes a loose 3better. As played shoving flop is pretty bad imo, he could easily have a big pair here which you would want to stack off with as you are ahead. By shoving you give him the chance to fold it although I doubt he would. He could also have Ax very often that he will almost definitely cbet with and you can c/r but will fold to a straight out shove.

When you flop a huge draw like I like to think of it as having a set on a monotone board. You want to get all the money in on the flop because you are most likely ahead at this minute but the turn and river could be bad for you so you dont want to have to make decisions and potential mistakes on those streets.

You mention you wanted maximum fold equity but with a hand like this you dont want your opponent to fold, you want him to put all the money in ASAP. Youre ahead of literally everything except a set where you are a slight dog but the money already in the pot would make up your equity. Youre even ahead of a flopped straight. Imo you lost a huge amount of value by shoving here.
 
Figaroo2

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Interesting,, fold pre against a guy who is 3 betting every hand?,,, NEVER in fact I probably would have 4 bet bluffed if the CO wasn't there as well to complicate things. This is why I use a hud to get the reads against exploitable players like this.

The question is about how much lost value,
I won 16bb on the hand with relatively little risk.. he is probably only stacking off with a set, two pair (unlikely on this flop) or a big overpair.
I would expect him to c bet at least 3/4 to full pot 16bb. So then I shove I'm picking up 32 bb instead of 16.. if he folds. I think he will fold less at this point once he has cbet and feels more committed to the hand.
So picking up the extra 16 bb if he cbets needs to be weighed against how often he then calls your shove. There is also the point that if you check he might check behind to see a free card that will help him and if you miss the turn your equity falls quickly.
I don't have enough math to work out what is the better play at the table, or now in fact, I know its going to be +EV to shove if he cbets, but over many trials is it better than the 16bb I win by shoving first with little risk.
 
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Eatscake

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You do realise that after 3 hands your HUD stats mean nothing? Stats are in the right kind of ball park for VPIP/PFR after about 30 hands, for other stats like 3bet% youd need over 100 to get close to any kind of idea about how much he 3bets unless hes crazy and does actually 3bet every hand. However, if you do think hes 3betting too much then with a hand like JTs you need to either 4bet or fold when OOP. So your idea of 4betting would have been a lot better than calling but youd need more of a solid read on your opponent to do this profitably.

You talk about risk, cash games arent really about risk. They are about percentages and numbers. The fact of the matter is you are ahead, albeit only a slight favorite over hands that will stack off but you are still ahead. Therefore you should want to stack off. The best way to do this is to check shove imo. Id say if the reason you played the pot was because he was 3betting 100% of hands then youd surely perceive him as the aggressive type. Because of this you should expect him to follow up on his 3bets with a cbet almost every single time. So I dont think he will check back very often at all. I think check shoving is 10x better than just shoving
 
vinylspiros

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Your making moves here and you are not thinking about what you are doing. why are you shoving here? For value? as a bluff? what are you accomplishing by shoving here? Your going to get all better hands to call and all worse hands to fold.


Was your intention to call his 3bet out of position light and then to shove any flop and be at gods mercy? I personally hate this play. Its a gambly play and its not going to get you anywhere in the long run.

Check call one street and fold if you dont improve. Or you could check/shove( if you feel like this style suits you best). Donk shoving is straight up BAD.

Best option, fold pre.
 
Figaroo2

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We have the monster draw, so we can shove here at any point on the flop knowing we have positive equity against everything but a set, even then we have 42%.
If he has an overpair we are 56%. I am coming to the conclusion I should have let him cbet and then raised him. As its already a 3bet pot might as well just shove as we are committed as soon as we raise.
I simply am not going to fold pre here. This is zoom and people are squeezing from the blinds all the time with all sorts of garbage. The stats I had on this guy are small but showed he had three bet every hand with no post flop ag. The read is he three bets and gives up if he gets called. J10 suited is the one non pair hand that is equity favourite over all small pairs 66 downwards and is just what you want to take on an overpair as the flop showed. I'll pm John to have a look at this one.
 
vinylspiros

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Just noticed its an OESFD. Wow. though it was just an oesd. disregard prvious post. I like check raise shove flop most here.
 
jordanbillie

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What the hell happened with this hand? This hand is played completely wrong on all streets. The funniest is the $4 flop bet. What were you thinking?
 
JOEBOB69

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Pre
Fold>4bet
Edit:
Pre is all i read at first because the hand should not have gone any further.
Flop play is worse than pre.
What was your line of thinking???????????????
 
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Figaroo2

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I agree if the villain had any sort of normal stats its a fold pre especially as the CO is still to act as well, I'm likely 3rd best.
The reason I shoved on the flop is that my read was he was 0 agg and wasn't going to cbet and i didn't want to give him a free card which would be a bad mistake here... this hand looks wrong but it is a totally read dependent play.... I won the hand for 16bb and gave him a chance to make a big mistake, it likely wasn't the highest EV line.
Clearly leading into him with a 70-100% pot sized bet was something I could have considered rather than shoving which escaped me in the heat of the hand.
I was hoping some one could do the math on how much value i lost if he did cbet full pot and then I shoved and he folded say 80% of the time.

Jordan if you are just going to just say its all completely wrong please explain your reasoning. I have explained my thinking... the request was for some help with the math.....
 
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el_magiciann

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I can tell you what this shove on the flop means, first "i am afraid of the villain hand because he 3bet me", second " i want to gamble because i am afraid if i miss the turn " third " i don't know how to play the hand if i miss the turn and then miss the river too, and losing big pot for just semi bluffing or calling with this draw"....so yes it is correct to play this hand at zoom poker, because these are so low limits that most of the players are playing big range of hands, but you should know that u can easily lose to any 2 cards :)
 
vinylspiros

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You won the hand. Good job.


He sure did. But that is irrelevant to the question of whether his play was good or not. Sometimes we win a pot but we played it badly. And posting these type of hands help him make better plays next time so that he can maximize value/minimise loss and have a solid line that makes sense.
 
JOEBOB69

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Ok first as some one else has said it takes a lot of hands to converge. Even in cakes example of 100 hands is no were close to the real # In 100 hands how many times has villain even had a chance to 3bet? 50%? less, more etc.
Ok lets say for the sake of it over a large sample size his real 3bet # is crazy high 30% is it profitable to play TJ OOP?

Now we think his range is so bad we can play TJ OOP profitabe, and we flop a monster draw. You thought his range was so bad we played the hand to begin. What the hell is he going to call your over bet shove with? An when he does your behind(for now any way).
Correct play fold pre> If he is 3 betting way to much 4bet him with the top of your bluffing 4bet range(which we have already said there is not any where close to enough sample to say he is 3betting a wide range).
As played check/shove flop
 
Figaroo2

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Yes I'm afraid to lose. yes I don't want to play the hand oop if I miss on the turn..Your points are obvious and NOT HELPFUL
Recently i've lost loads of these draws all in on the flop and then got beaten up in this forum when I posted such a hand and didn't stack it off......
Magic your reply is very negative, so if you would like to explain how you would play it please do so...without saying fold pre....

and is there anyone can help with the math question I asked for help with in the string
 
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JOEBOB69

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Yes I'm afraid to lose. yes I don't want to play the hand oop if I miss on the turn..Your points are obvious and NOT HELPFUL
Recently i've lost loads of these draws all in on the flop and then got beaten up in this forum when I posted such a hand and didn't stack it off......
Magic your reply is very negative, so if you would like to explain how you would play it please do so...without saying fold pre....

and is there anyone can help with the math question I asked for help with in the string
The MATH.... you narrowed his range to the nuts by over shoving the flop.
Do to the math you would need to know his cbet % An you still wouldn't get a true idea of how much EV you lost by donk shoving this flop. But it's a very very -EV play.
 
Eatscake

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The MATH.... you narrowed his range to the nuts by over shoving the flop.
Do to the math you would need to know his cbet % An you still wouldn't get a true idea of how much EV you lost by donk shoving this flop. But it's a very very -EV play.

It's not -EV at all. Its quite +EV actually as we have pretty much the nuts at this time. Just like open shoving AA preflop for 200bb is +EV but it is nowhere near the optimal play.

Anyway, Ive just re-read your opening post and the part where you say he might stack off when he gets 2:1 on a call makes it sound like you dont want to give him good odds to make a call? Is this right? As I've previously said you want all the money to go in on the flop. Also, can we please stick to facts. You say you have only 3 hands on the guy, yet you know he has 0 postflop aggression? This makes no sense.

As to your question about the math. I'm not sure even a somewhat half accurate calculation could be made because of the facts that you're deep, you're opponent might check back and then you have more streets to deal with. Your opponent may call more light when compared to most people, or the opposite. There are just so many variables that the kind of calculation you want is just unobtainable.

Also, can I ask you a question? What would your actions be if the flop came 9d 6d 5s?
 
JOEBOB69

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It's not -EV at all. Its quite +EV actually as we have pretty much the nuts at this time. Just like open shoving AA preflop for 200bb is +EV but it is nowhere near the optimal play.
Maybe i worded it wrong. The jest of it is, it's losing EV vs check shoving i.e. the optimal play as you put it.
 
S

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A lot of problems when you play suited connectors OOP with normal stack in a 3-bet pot.
 
Figaroo2

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I have gone back to reference Harrington on cash games vol 1 with the open ended straight flush draw oop the recommended strategy is bet out 60%, check 40%.
If we bet and he raises call 50% and reraise all in 50%.
If we check the flop and he bets we reraise 70% and call 30%. calling here creates balance to our play. As this is already a 3bet pot we may as well shove all in.
No mention of any all in shove first in on the flop lol...lesson learned....
 
Eatscake

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A bit of advice. Dont bother trying to balance your range at 5NL. Not even the regs there will notice if you dont balance your range.
 
jordanbillie

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Also, instead of yelling at everyone and defending your play, try to absorb some knowledge.
 
Figaroo2

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If you look at some of the replies they are patronising (yours included) and just plain rude and you are suprised I got defensive.... (quote from you Jordon "This hand is played completely wrong on all streets. The funniest is the $4 flop bet. What were you thinking?"
How do you think this makes people feel and what positives does it give to the thread.
I wouldn't post if I didn't want advice so offer advice not thoughtless comment... do it in the right way please.
This is my last on this thread and probably my last for some time...
 
blueskies

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So if u cannot acknowledge poor play how can u improve?

If u really wanted advice u already got it (fold pre, or chk raise flop). If ur really looking for a pat on the back, it's hard to do given how the hand played out.

If villain truly raises or 3bets almost every hand, then consider limp/calling with speculative hands whose strength increases dramatically on a favorable flop. Yes, people will tell ya that limping is "always bad." Not true.

Or, if you think he's raising with garbage and you have fold equity, 4 bet shove.

Raise/calling here is pretty bad. Inflates the pot with only a drawing hand and OOP. As played, once you hit your dream flop with that mediocre starting hand, you def should not be open shoving.
 
Eatscake

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Im sorry if I came across as patronising, It's just that I kept making the point and you kept re arguing your defence of the play. I wasn't trying to be intentionally horrible but you didn't seem to be absorbing the message I was trying to send. So I tried sending it in a different way. Again, sorry, you're right this is a place for learning and I didnt mean to cause offence. I agree that the comment about your play being terrible and a joke was bad but I guess thats the kind of thing you have to deal with when youre on a forum. Hope you're not deterred from posting future hands as I feel this thread provided a lot of things to talk and argue about, which is good. Arguing things makes you remember them a lot better than just being told them at the end of the day.
 
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