Originally Posted by JOEBOB69
The MATH.... you narrowed his range to the nuts by over shoving the flop.
Do to the math you would need to know his cbet % An you still wouldn't get a true idea of how much EV you lost by donk shoving this flop. But it's a very very -EV play.
It's not -EV at all. Its quite +EV actually as we have pretty much the nuts at this time. Just like open shoving AA preflop for 200bb is +EV but it is nowhere near the optimal play.
Anyway, Ive just re-read your opening post and the part where you say he might stack off when he gets 2:1 on a call makes it sound like you dont want to give him good odds
to make a call? Is this right? As I've previously said you want all the money to go in on the flop. Also, can we please stick to facts. You say you have only 3 hands on the guy, yet you know he has 0 postflop aggression? This makes no sense.
As to your question about the math. I'm not sure even a somewhat half accurate calculation could be made because of the facts that you're deep, you're opponent might check back and then you have more streets to deal with. Your opponent may call more light when compared to most people, or the opposite. There are just so many variables that the kind of calculation you want is just unobtainable.
Also, can I ask you a question? What would your actions be if the flop came 9d 6d 5s?