$5 NLHE 6-max: KK vs turn shove

No stats on villain but reads are villain is on the loose passive side but i haven't seen any real major spew.I was putting villains range somewhere around TT-QQ some 9x and some draws .But what part of that range plays turn this way.
Thanks.


Party, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $9.50 (190 bb)
BB: $3.14 (62.8 bb)
MP: $5.60 (112 bb)
Hero (CO): $5 (100 bb)
BTN: $7.01 (140.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
MP raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, MP calls $0.29

Flop: ($0.97) 8 6 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.46, MP calls $0.46

Turn: ($1.89) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.20, MP raises to $4.69, Hero calls ?

The more interesting decision to me is whether to bet the turn or not. I think I prefer a bet/fold since there's still tons of draws and I doubt a passive villain will bluff the river if we show weakness on the turn. But I could be swayed to check for pot control.

As played, given your loose/passive read, I think we need to snap fold this spot. The standard line with TPTK or an overpair against a fish should be b/f three times in a row.

I've seen players do this with all kinds of random rubbish. I would call.

I wouldn't fault either a fold or a call on the turn. The turn is super wet and could be potentially be doing it with combo draws or possibly even overvaluing a TT-JJ type hand on the turn.

If villain turns over 9x it's unfortunate but either way call or fold I don't mind the play. Checking back on the turn seems way too nitty IMO.

I think that you played well but the river was not good for you.But it's impossible to know what card is the next.

after checking this spot in an equity calculator, he cannot use this line without a good hand, imo. the only bluff i can see in his range is A7s of spades, 87s,76s and JTs and he picks up equity on the turn but highly unlikely. else, he could have pocket sixes and pocket eights and also any nine. he could also have T7s. clear fold, imo.

His range is for the turn Baluga is what? 66, 88-QQ, 9X, plus some combo draw stuff (JsTs type stuff). You might be able to remove 66, JT, and some 9x if he’s real passive. If his stats are like 25/10, he’s probably not raising 66 and J9s preflop.

Running that range, I get 50% equity for KK. I guess there are more overpair combos than I originally thought. I suppose you can call it off, but my spidey-sense doesn’t like it.

Turn is the absolute worse card for us. I'm betting flop bigger & probably going huge or Obing turn vs a brick
Checking back turn.
As played folding vs a raise. If he's passive the fold is a no brainer

Alucard said:

Turn is the absolute worse card for us. I'm betting flop bigger & probably going huge or Obing turn vs a brick
Checking back turn.
As played folding vs a raise. If he's passive the fold is a no brainer

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Give us a range for his turn shove.

On the flop I think you have a raise for value, your c-bet does not tell you much of his range and probably will do it with it completely. And well, whether he have the nuts or not, the turn is an excellent card for him to continue bluff his entire range

c9h13no3 said:

Give us a range for his turn shove.

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98s (2),T9s(2), 66(3),88(2),99(1),J9s(2),

JTs(2),87s(c-1),76s(s-1)

perhaps TT(6),JJ(6),QQ(6),AA(6),KK(1)

could be some T7s,75s for whatever reasons.

stats come into play but considering his passive image I doubt he'd GII TT-QQ on turn as well as some draws. So vs this range we'd be quite behind.

Alucard said:

98s (2),T9s(2), 66(3),88(2),99(1),J9s(2),

JTs(2),87s(c-1),76s(s-1)

perhaps TT(6),JJ(6),QQ(6),AA(6),KK(1)

could be some T7s,75s for whatever reasons.

stats come into play but considering his passive image I doubt he'd GII TT-QQ on turn as well as some draws. So vs this range we'd be quite behind.

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This is why we run the numbers, given the range you gave, it’s a clear call.

I had the same reaction as you, this spot looks bad. But if you can’t rule out TT-QQ, then this becomes a call. You have to exclude TT-QQ for this to be a fold.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,540 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9♠ 9♣ 6♣ 8♠
KdKs 59.87%
7x6x, TT-QQ, 9d8d, 9h8h, Td9d, Th9h, 66, 88, 99, Jd9d,JsTs, JcTc, 8x9x 40.13%

I would raise just to see what he does and if he calls the turn card will let me kno how loose he really is playing

i think it's fold, but i don't understand why you are beting turn, villain easy could have all sets+(and also many hands to make bluff or valuebet himself), so i sometimes even could check flop in these spots, but if bet flop easy check behind on turn and than you can bluffcatch or not on river w your hand on any runout

Hee has no TT(6),JJ(6),QQ(6),AA(6),KK(1), maybe like TT(0),JJ(1),QQ(1),AA(1),KK(0) at max and even more realistically TT(0),JJ(0),QQ(0),AA(1),KK(0).

braveslice said:

Hee has no TT(6),JJ(6),QQ(6),AA(6),KK(1), maybe like TT(0),JJ(1),QQ(1),AA(1),KK(0) at max and even more realistically TT(0),JJ(0),QQ(0),AA(1),KK(0).

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Why are you cutting out so many combos? Board or us aren't blocking any

Alucard said:

Why are you cutting out so many combos? Board or us aren't blocking any

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Not board but villain behavior patterns. Example: Player who really really likes to slow play AA, how many combos he has AA here? The answer is not 6. He will raise flop mostly and he won't always slow play pre.

Let say he go AI 15% of the time pre, combos left 0.85*6= 5.1 -> Then 60% of the time he will raise flop -> combos of AA left 0.4*5.1 = 2