$5 NLHE 6-max: Is it a right call in turn?

B

bondgaurav21

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PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 4)
BB: 64.4 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 75.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (CO): 130.4 BB
BTN: 98 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: 9:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 6:heart: K:heart: 8:heart:
Hero bets 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB

Turn: (14.2 BB, 2 players) T:diamond:
Hero bets 10.2 BB, BTN raises to 20.4 BB, Hero calls 10.2 BB

River: (55 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets 71.2 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 52.8 BB

Is it a right call in turn w.r.t. equity?
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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It really depends on our read here, if we call or not.

If we figure we only have FD+SD, but the ace is no good, a call should be +ev a little. We are getting over 4:1 to call. This is against sets and 2p. If he has a straight, we are about 4:1 dog here. Also, we are in bad shape vs a flush. If he has say Qh-10h, we are 15/85 to win.


This is pretty close here. I lean towards a fold. I mean do we really get paid off a ton OTR if we hit flush? Probably not.
 
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Jreece18

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Got around a 20% chance of hitting the flush and getting 4.5:1 to call the turn. From how he's playing, I think he's hit a flush. He's definitely stacking off if he has a flush imo and maybe not if it's a set or something similar? (readless) the call seems marginal, but the implied odds means it's a call imo.

7's aren't clean outs so I've ignored the straight draw, including them just improves your odds.
 
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braveslice

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He seems to be fish, you have have pot odds 19% and direct odds around 20%, should be easy call.
 
DrazaFFT

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yup, definitely calling turn with nutFD+GS we already have right odds to call, his sizing definitely shows that he is bad player, he can easily turned SD and think that he is strong so if he miss he would check back so we cant really rely on a implied odds here, its thin but i think that its a call raise and fold river. Also i would bet atleast 2/3 on flop with nutFD+overcard
 
mbrenneman0

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cbet larger on the flop. your cbet on the flop is just under half pot, and I usually take that as a pretty good sign of a draw (not always, but it seems to be a pretty good indicator so far) I pretty much always cbet 60% - 70% of the pot so i think a 5bb cbet would be more appropriate.

I think C9 is right about checking the turn, especially because it keeps a wider range in. unless you are betting as a bluff, in which case your line doesnt tell the right story. if you are in fact bluffing here then a properly sized cbet on the flop would have been much more helpful in making it look like you flopped a flush. if you are value betting, then your trying to get value on a draw, and thats not the right spot to value bet. if youre not betting for a bluff, or for value then you have no valid reason to bet. and you have very valid reasons to check here (pot control, range manipulation... but dont worry about that, just know that if you dont have a valid reason to bet, then check)

as far as whether or not the call is right. you have 19% chance of making a winning hand, and you are only paying 18.5% of the pot to call. factor in implied odds and you definitely have the right odds to call but only barely. this is a pretty marginal spot.

you would be getting better odds if you checked because villain wouldnt have been able to correctly bet as much and it would be more positive EV to call then.


i dont think its right to count your outs for the gutshot because villain is representing a made flush. and we cant assume its a bluff because raising on the turn is a very strong move and we dont have any info on villain. ... or maybe a made 10 high straight, in which case we split if we make the 3 outs... so really we should only be looking at our outs for the flush because we would have the highest flush if we make it

dont be afraid hit the time bank and open up your calculator or use the calculator on your phone to calculate your pot odds in spots like this. (if you have time. usually you have time if youre on 1 or 2 tables. if you have 4 tables, then maybe not.)
 
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mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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sorry for the double post, but just rethought a key part of my analysis. if you check and opponent bets on the turn, you would have worse odds. but it would keep you out of trouble because its an easy fold then.
 
6

6bet me

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cbet larger on the flop. your cbet on the flop is just under half pot, and I usually take that as a pretty good sign of a draw (not always, but it seems to be a pretty good indicator so far) I pretty much always cbet 60% - 70% of the pot so i think a 5bb cbet would be more appropriate.

I think C9 is right about checking the turn, especially because it keeps a wider range in. unless you are betting as a bluff, in which case your line doesnt tell the right story. if you are in fact bluffing here then a properly sized cbet on the flop would have been much more helpful in making it look like you flopped a flush.

This is good advice from mbrenneman.

If you're going to bet the turn, then you need to Cbet larger on the flop to tell the right story. A baby flush is going to basically pot it on the flop, so you need to do that too with your NFD to make it believable. If you only want to bet half pot on the flop, then you need to check the turn, since you can no longer represent a baby flush.

If the villain has a made flush, then you have just 13% equity, since there are only 7 hearts left in the deck out of the 44 remaining cards. This means you need to win roughly 80bb to justify calling a 10bb raise. I believe that this is entirely possible; you'll only need to win another 25bb on the river the times when you make your flush, which I think the villain would be happy to call a 1/2 pot river bet with a weak flush. So as played, I'd be calling the turn raise too.

I don't think that the gutshot has any relevance here tbh. Why would the villain raise the turn with a set or 2 pairs? You're never good when you hit your straight except if the villain is bluffing, and if the villain is bluffing, then your Ace high might have SDV in and of itself.
 
Beanfacekilla

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This is good advice from mbrenneman.

If you're going to bet the turn, then you need to Cbet larger on the flop to tell the right story. A baby flush is going to basically pot it on the flop, so you need to do that too with your NFD to make it believable. If you only want to bet half pot on the flop, then you need to check the turn, since you can no longer represent a baby flush.

If the villain has a made flush, then you have just 13% equity, since there are only 7 hearts left in the deck out of the 44 remaining cards. This means you need to win roughly 80bb to justify calling a 10bb raise. I believe that this is entirely possible; you'll only need to win another 25bb on the river the times when you make your flush, which I think the villain would be happy to call a 1/2 pot river bet with a weak flush. So as played, I'd be calling the turn raise too.

I don't think that the gutshot has any relevance here tbh. Why would the villain raise the turn with a set or 2 pairs? You're never good when you hit your straight except if the villain is bluffing, and if the villain is bluffing, then your Ace high might have SDV in and of itself.


On second thought, villains raise size OTT is suspicious. He may have some lone heart hand himself, or he is trying to "see where hero is at", maybe with a 2p or set hand.

And the ship looks suspicious on the river as well. I think maybe V could actually be bluffing here perhaps.
 
mbrenneman0

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On second thought, villains raise size OTT is suspicious. He may have some lone heart hand himself, or he is trying to "see where hero is at", maybe with a 2p or set hand.

And the ship looks suspicious on the river as well. I think maybe V could actually be bluffing here perhaps.

its very possible, but i think in this spot its better to assume he isnt. especially in low stakes, bluffs like that are less common. just because his line doesnt make perfect sense doesnt mean he doesnt have it. it could just be that he is a bad player. until you get a better read, i think its best to assume he is telling the truth and wait for a better spot. especially if we dont even have a catcher
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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its very possible, but i think in this spot its better to assume he isnt. especially in low stakes, bluffs like that are less common. just because his line doesnt make perfect sense doesnt mean he doesnt have it. it could just be that he is a bad player. until you get a better read, i think its best to assume he is telling the truth and wait for a better spot. especially if we dont even have a catcher


Yeah for sure, no way we are hero calling this dude with ace high. I was just thinking about it (dude's betting), that's all.
 
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