Originally Posted by mbrenneman0
cbet larger on the flop. your cbet on the flop is just under half pot, and I usually take that as a pretty good sign of a draw (not always, but it seems to be a pretty good indicator so far) I pretty much always cbet 60% - 70% of the pot so i think a 5bb cbet would be more appropriate.
I think C9 is right about checking the turn, especially because it keeps a wider range in. unless you are betting as a bluff, in which case your line doesnt tell the right story. if you are in fact bluffing here then a properly sized cbet on the flop would have been much more helpful in making it look like you flopped a flush.
This is good advice from mbrenneman.
If you're going to bet the turn, then you need to Cbet larger on the flop to tell the right story. A baby flush is going to basically pot it on the flop, so you need to do that too with your NFD to make it believable. If you only want to bet half pot on the flop, then you need to check the turn, since you can no longer represent a baby flush.
If the villain has a made flush, then you have just 13% equity, since there are only 7 hearts left in the deck out of the 44 remaining cards. This means you need to win roughly 80bb to justify calling a 10bb raise. I believe that this is entirely possible; you'll only need to win another 25bb on the river the times when you make your flush, which I think the villain would be happy to call a 1/2 pot river bet with a weak flush. So as played, I'd be calling the turn raise too.
I don't think that the gutshot has any relevance here tbh. Why would the villain raise the turn with a set or 2 pairs? You're never good when you hit your straight except if the villain is bluffing, and if the villain is bluffing, then your Ace high might have SDV in and of itself.