$5 NLHE 6-max: How often does villain have a straight on this turn?

mbrenneman0

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iPoker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 44.2 BB (VPIP: 83.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, hands: 6)
BTN: 67.2 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 12.2 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 83.33, PFR: 66.67, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 6)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9:diamond: 9:heart:

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 2:club: T:heart: J:diamond:
Hero bets 4 BB, UTG calls 4 BB

Turn: (15 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
Hero bets 14 BB, UTG raises to 94.4 BB, Hero calls 79 BB


Im thinking villain would have raised pre with KQ, does Q8, 87, JJ and TT make up a small enough percent of his range to be good here 39% of the time to call? How often is he shoving here with an overpair, or two pair?
 
TimovieMan

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I play it the same.

Especially since a guy with his stats (so far) could play AA like this, thinking he's so cleverly slowplaying.


Edit: actually, no. I make it 4bb preflop, and I c-bet the flop just a tad larger, and the turn a tad smaller. :p
 
DrazaFFT

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Open 4bb pre cuz of the limper, pot would be bit bigger so you will be 6ish bb on flop. Im ok with almost potting the turn if the 9 was one of the first 3cards suit and could make someone a combo draw or something, this way 2/3 is more than enough and by betting it bigger youre kinda narrowing his range to sets and made str8, but i guess that players at 5nl could have 2pairs top pairs, pairs or draws often enough to make this profitable. I would stack that turn for sure tho...
You can play around and put him a limp range, narrow it to the limo call range and give him a number of combos that call flop and see the turn and then take the combos that would stack there, dont tighten up too much cuz its 5nl and then calc your equity and compare it to the pot odds youre getting, or count the combos that stacks but are behind and count the combos that stack but are ahead the ratio between the combos tell you what will he have more often and can also compare that with the pot odds too. I might play arround with it tonigh if i dont get to tired after playing...
 
mbrenneman0

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I'm thinking a lot of top pairs with strong kickers might stack here if they think I'm bluffing. I'll think about all the combos that might play this way a little more in depth later on today
 
6

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Preflop: I'd raise larger to somewhere between 4bb and 5bb, since there was a limper and you don't want to give him a great price to limp-call.
Flop: I'd Cbet larger, since this is a wet board. Probably 80% pot would suffice (so about 5.5bb here instead of 4bb).
Turn: I'm happy with this turn bet and I'm happy with the sizing too. I'm also happy to see you call the turn shove. I think you played the turn perfectly. I actually don't expect him to show up with a straight all that often. Why would he try to scare us out of the pot if he had a straight? It's the same concept as when a player overbet shoves the turn the moment that third spade comes in. Usually they don't have the flush but instead have something like an overpair and they're making a scare shove because they don't know what else to do and it takes their decision making process away from them. I wouldn't be surprised if the villain had AA/KK here. I also wouldn't be surprised if he had some Jx hand or some 2 pair combo like JTo or J9s. I guess the villain can have a weak straight (like 87s for example) that is scared of being outdrawn, but that's about it.

Overall, I think you played the hand very well.
 
mbrenneman0

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Why would he try to scare us out of the pot if he had a straight? It's the same concept as when a player overbet shoves the turn the moment that third spade comes in. Usually they don't have the flush but instead have something like an overpair and they're making a scare shove because they don't know what else to do and it takes their decision making process away from them.

Ah nice, I didn't think of it like that. I think that's great reasoning.

Thanks guys
 
c9h13no3

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Check/fold the mega-wet flop? As played, call & sigh because he probably has enough J9/QJ/JT in his range, but this is always Q8 or 78 or some equally retarded hand that beats us.
 
mbrenneman0

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Why wouldn't I cbet a wet flop? A cbet as a bluff is more convincing on a wet board isn't it?
 
IPlay

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It's a pretty meh flop to cbet but this villain will probably call pretty wide so it's probably not bad. I don't really like x/folding vs this villain so we should probably bet.
 
c9h13no3

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Why wouldn't I cbet a wet flop? A cbet as a bluff is more convincing on a wet board isn't it?
Your opponent isn't thinking about your hand. He's thinking "oh my K9 has a straight draw, I can call this cbet". Your opponent's range is what matters here. And on this board, a lot of your opponent's range has enough to peel off a street, and then proceed to bet when we slow down on later streets.

I suppose you could try to get value, but OOP it will be harder.

And cbetting this board is not as a bluff.
 
mbrenneman0

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Your opponent isn't thinking about your hand. He's thinking "oh my K9 has a straight draw, I can call this cbet". Your opponent's range is what matters here. And on this board, a lot of your opponent's range has enough to peel off a street, and then proceed to bet when we slow down on later streets.

I suppose you could try to get value, but OOP it will be harder.

And cbetting this board is not as a bluff.
Can it be both a bluff and for value? If villain is clinging to his draws then I get value out of that. If he folds 2nd pair, or even top pair weak kicker, then I get value from that too. Right?
 
c9h13no3

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Wtf kind of dream world are you living in where your opponents fold hands that beat you but call hands that you beat?

Do you also fart rainbows?
 
mbrenneman0

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Do you also fart rainbows?

only on tuesdays


but you said hes thinking he can call his straight draws. if he's calling his straight draws, thats good for me. thats a great time for me to bet if thats what he's thinking isnt it?
 
Aces2w1n

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if we can put draws or two pairs or top pair open end str draw in his range we have to call

if we know this guy only does with the nuts we can justify a fold but remember we still have outs... remember to use the information we gather from hand
 
Trabendo_daze

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Not cbetting this flop because everything that calls has us beat/has shittons kf equity against us. We can cbet a wet board when we will have the best hand against villain's calling range, or if we can make better hands fold. Even if villain doesn't think about what you have, he shouldn't have to with things like JT, KJ, KQ, QJ all of which have tons of equity against a cbetting range of value (AA/KK/AJ) and bluffs (AK/AQ/97s....). Villain should be calling with anything that hits this board regardless of whether you look strong or not by betting it.

Betting with 99 accomplishes neither of the above goals. This hand plays out differently after a flop check (probably just fold to a bet), but if it went c/c we could go from there.
 
c9h13no3

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but you said hes thinking he can call his straight draws. if he's calling his straight draws, thats good for me. thats a great time for me to bet if thats what he's thinking isnt it?
Only if he's passive and will allow you a cheap showdown. If the turn card is anything other than a 7/8/9 (maybe a Q), then we generally have to give up on the hand (check & fold to future bets).
 
Delvuter

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Little bit larger bet pre, perhaps even a limp. I don’t care about the limping stigma math people seem to have, I prefer the practical idea that I want to see a cheap flop with my medium pocket pair and hope to flop a set. On the flop we don’t want to c-bet IP on a wet board. The pot size bet on the turn is questionable now that a straight draw could have hit, I am just wanting to get to showdown cheap at that point. If he bets after our check on the turn had we gone that route I would call if the price was right, 1/3 of the pot. If he bet ½ or more I would think about a tough fold. Certainly not calling a shove, that is wiggity whack.

Ah we are OOP, so c/f flop.
 
TimovieMan

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I don’t care about the limping stigma math people seem to have, I prefer the practical idea that I want to see a cheap flop with my medium pocket pair and hope to flop a set.
If you're always going to limp your small pocket pairs, you'll be very exploitable. We raise for the chance of taking the pot down preflop without a contest, and to balance our entire range.
If we start limping speculative hands like small PPs and suited connectors then we'll need to add a lot of other hands in as well to avoid becoming exploitable, and we'll NEVER take down the pot preflop.

There's a reason why this is only recommended on a VERY passive table with mouthbreathers who've never heard of hand reading. Any decent TAG will take you apart otherwise.
 
6

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Why wouldn't I cbet a wet flop? A cbet as a bluff is more convincing on a wet board isn't it?

You're overthinking things. This is the micro stakes. Your opponent isn't thinking about your Cbetting tendencies. Especially not this player in particular who limp-called preflop. He's a fish and he's only thinking about his own hand.

In general, the rule is to Cbet more on dry flops (especially paired boards) and Cbet less on wet flops. At the high stakes, you can mix this up a bit, but at the micro stakes, you should follow this rule of thumb.

Having said that, I still do believe that it's okay to Cbet this particular board, but only because of the context of the villain being a loose-passive fish that limp-called preflop and will have plenty of worse hands in his range that can and will continue (like gutshots, backdoor draws, weaker pocket pairs, etc.). Just remember though that you're Cbetting for value; not as a bluff.

And no, the villain is never folding Tx here. You're only betting to get value from worse. Don't ever expect this villain in particular to fold hands that have you beat. Players who limp-call preflop, especially with high VPIP's, tend to be calling stations that get sticky with a lot of 1 pair hands.

The whole thought process of "the villain should respect my Cbet more on a wet board because it's a board which I would typically be less likely to Cbet bluff because I would typically expect less fold equity on that board texture" is not a thought process that belongs at the micro stakes. It's fancy play syndrome. Leave this stuff for the higher stakes. Just follow the rules of ABC poker and save all the "my opponent expects me to play ABC, so I'm going to do this instead" stuff for the higher stakes.
 
Delvuter

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I don’t always limp, I don’t ALWAYS do anything. I tried to imply that when I said, “Little bit larger bet pre”, but you cut that part out of my quote. So yeah, I will limp here sometimes. I just think that some people NEVER limp here because they think, “OOooooh limping, limping bad.” Same thing with a c-bet, “OOOooooh, I must c-bet, I must!!!” No.
 
6

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I don’t always limp, I don’t ALWAYS do anything. I tried to imply that when I said, “Little bit larger bet pre”, but you cut that part out of my quote. So yeah, I will limp here sometimes. I just think that some people NEVER limp here because they think, “OOooooh limping, limping bad.” Same thing with a c-bet, “OOOooooh, I must c-bet, I must!!!” No.

ABC poker suggests: never open-limp preflop, Cbet roughly 65% of board textures. Nowhere does it state that we should Cbet 100% of board textures.

As for open-limping preflop, it should basically never be done at all in online poker cash games. Save it for the incredibly soft and passive live games, and even then, use it sparsely.
 
Delvuter

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Very rarely if ever will I open limp, but if there are limpers ahead of me I will limp in sometimes, often with implied hands. So I am agreeing with you. There are some out there that think limping in (not open limping) after someone is ALWAYS wrong and that we ALWAYS have to bet or fold and we must ALWAYS C-bet. Not sure where they get those ideas. You don’t have to look at very many posts to see that nearly every single one of them they are c-betting IP or OOP wet or dry flop. They just do it just because they think they are supposed to.
 
TimovieMan

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Open-limping is not the same as overlimping.

I play 6-max online, so I never open-limp. Overlimping on the other hand is something I do regularly.
 
c9h13no3

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God Delvuter has a knack for making legit threads turn stupid. I groan everytime I see his name show up, because now we'll end up having to talk about some retarded line he thinks is legit (like limping behind a fish with 99).
 
Delvuter

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You think overlimping is dumb? Seriously, where do you people come from? Tell me, just what exactly is dumb about limping sometimes right here? Hmm?
 
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