$5 NLHE 6-max: Hero call with middle pair on scary board

6

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5NL 6-max zoom on pokerstars. CO villain is a 15/12 over 42 hands with a 13% 3bet. BTN villain is unknown.

BTN: $16.72
SB: $5.09
BB: $6.11
Hero (UTG): $11.73
MP: $10.09
CO: $5.22

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with T:club: J:club:
Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.52) T:heart: K:spade: Q:heart: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO folds, BTN calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.22) 4:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, BTN calls $0.85

River: ($2.92) 6:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

What do you think about the way hero played this hand? That river sizing just looked so suspicious, combined with the fact that he flat-called the flop and turn (instead of raising), so I thought that there's a decent chance he just has a busted draw.
 
TimovieMan

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What do you think about the way hero played this hand? That river sizing just looked so suspicious, combined with the fact that he flat-called the flop and turn (instead of raising), so I thought that there's a decent chance he just has a busted draw.
How many busted draws do you beat, though?

If it's a straight draw with the J, then his entire range either beats you or chops with you. Or do you think he's playing J8s? You're looking at Ah2h-Ah9h. That's 8 combos of hands you beat and 6 combos of JT you're chopping with vs a MASSIVE number of Qx/Kx and better hands that have you crushed.

I wouldn't have bet the turn so big. When on a weak draw, bet the amount you'd be willing to call. I wouldn't go over half-pot much.
For that sizing, I'm check/folding the river. No way we're good here 31% of the time.
 
6

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How many busted draws do you beat, though?

If it's a straight draw with the J, then his entire range either beats you or chops with you. Or do you think he's playing J8s? You're looking at Ah2h-Ah9h. That's 8 combos of hands you beat and 6 combos of JT you're chopping with vs a MASSIVE number of Qx/Kx and better hands that have you crushed.

So there's 9 combos of KQ (that we lose to) vs 8 combos of busted flush draws (that we beat), but wouldn't we expect the villain to raise the flop or turn with KQ? So we can discount some of those 9 combos. Same goes for discounting AJ and J9s combos (and there's only 3 J9s combos anyway).

I wouldn't have bet the turn so big. When on a weak draw, bet the amount you'd be willing to call. I wouldn't go over half-pot much.
For that sizing, I'm check/folding the river. No way we're good here 31% of the time.

My reason for betting big on the turn is to disguise my hand. I'll never bet half pot here with a value hand on such a draw-heavy board, so I don't want to bet half pot with my draws either or else I'll just be turning my hand face up. Besides, I want to encourage the villain to fold his draws like Jx and flush draws, or at least get value off them if they do decide to call.
 
TimovieMan

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So there's 9 combos of KQ (that we lose to) vs 8 combos of busted flush draws (that we beat), but wouldn't we expect the villain to raise the flop or turn with KQ? So we can discount some of those 9 combos. Same goes for discounting AJ and J9s combos (and there's only 3 J9s combos anyway).
No mention of AT/KJ/KT/QJ/QT?
 
IPlay

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I'm gonna assume you won this hand but I'm also going to say you are a calling station.

Oh and x/call flop.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Raise is whatever... I would open that at 6-max.

Flop is fine.

Turn, meh. Anything that called the flop, is likely going to call the turn. A bunch of villain's range connected better than we did. It's an ominous board, so I don't totally agree with the thought that V would raise you with better here.

He's not going to raise a bunch of hands that beat you, and there many draws as well. We have bottom pair, on a board that connects with the villains calling range. The only thing you get value from is an inferior J-x, or FD, and we are OOP as well.


I say check turn, and if V bets, we base the decision on EV only. Like we are 4 to 1 dog, so we need 4:1 to break even or whatever.
 
Aces2w1n

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You have a straight draw blocker?? so busted draws are out since there are no flush draws.

Your just burning. Turn a lot of ppl will fold flush draws these days and don't chase as much.
 
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