Originally Posted by Sneaky Feet
I cbet on the flop to see if I could take it down and ended up with more outs on the turn. Should I have just shoved the turn here?
Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
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Hero (SB): $8.34
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q<font color='black'>♣</font> 9<font color='black'>♣</font>
1 fold, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.35
Flop: ($1.05) 8<font color='red'>♦</font> 2<font color='red'>♦</font> K<font color='black'>♣</font> (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, BTN calls $0.75
Turn: ($2.55) T<font color='black'>♣</font> (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BTN raises to $1.80, Hero calls $1.10
River: ($6.15) 5<font color='red'>♥</font> (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.95 all in,
Disclaimer: I am just posting to share my opinion and am no expert so take everything here with a grain of salt. And would welcome any feedback or hole in the analysis below.
Do you have any stats on the BTN? Does he open light from the BTN or fold a lot to 3Bets? For Blind steal and re steal we have to pick our spots even with hands such as Q9s. How was your BSB dynamic with him on earlier rounds. Also your 3 bet is a bb higher, does not matter but we should just go with 3x, does the same job but saves a bb a hand in long run where we get called and give up.
Once we do fire the bullet pre flop we have to take into consideration that we are OOP the entire hand now and Villain may have a legit hand here. As such I wouldn't mind x/c the flop just to float lightly but even with leading I feel our bet was on the bigger end. If we want fold we get the same result with 40-50% pot bet and we want to keep the pot under control bc we are surely done with the hand.
OTT, again I wouldn't mind a x/c given how the V bets plus we have picked up additional outs. I would still lean towards keeping the pot under control because we are "drawing" and V flop call could definitely be a made hand like Kx pairing his king. How we played turn our bet was worse than no bet at all bc it is lower than our flop bet in absolute terms and just btw 1/3 and 1/4 of the pot. Even if Villain was on air this could give him the idea that the pot is up for steal. Also bc of our added equity, we really want to stay in the hand and keep it under control so x/c seems best.
River is ofc fold bc we cant hero call Q high anywhere in poker :P But it would be helpful if there were some stats on the villain like his AF plus FCB etc so it would be more reasonable to estimate if he is floating lightly or just trapping here. One of the main problem with our play is that we have no idea what the Villain might have and that uncertainty is always bad. But given his Flop and Turn actions I suspect KT to be a favourite here along with set possibilities but I discount them bc he then might have c/r the flop and with TT+ he might have 4bet you preflop. KTd would be golden here and given the river did not complete any draws his 2 pair would definitely deserve a fat value bet.
Generally, while playing hands I always keep the fold button close by bc I know I will always have a better situation to put my money in later. Also when making moves it is essential to remember our intention and avoid getting carried away with a hand we would not have played ideally. For steal or re steal it is better to mentally give up on the hand in case of a call and a total miss on the flop, unless Villain shows great weakness and begs us to take the pot from him. Making plays are good but it is crucial to remember when to give up and avoid FPS. Also if we feel a player is making a move on us we don't have to retaliate in the same hand and can let it go if its too speculative or risky. And if he consistently get out of line then we can snap him off when we have the best of it. By folding to their plays you actually pump up their ego and may even set them up for bigger falls if they bite!