$5 NLHE 6-max: Full House facing river raise from 9/8 villian

Interesting hand came up.

I have 68 hands on villian and he is a nitty 9/8 nit. Not once has 3bet or 4bet pre etc..

I just coulden't see villian raising here without a FH here himself.

Now, we can elimiate KK from him range unless he's getting tricky, as I'm running 30/27 so might be "trapping", but in general ( i assume 3bet pre with KK), I think the likely hood on him calling Kx hands are very low.soooo it leaves 4'4 or quad 2'2s..or..a flush which I highly doubt he would re-raise me with even if the nut flush.

Thoughts?

Do you think the river is a raise/fold considering stack sizes. Calling seems bad, folding seems worse. However, raise/folding seems better? :s

Now, usually I could snap off or even raise normally with FH's but meh..I really didn't think even calling his raise was good here?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (CO) ($26.48)
Button ($2)
SB ($4.03)
BB ($6.98)
UTG ($5.52)
MP ($8.12)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3 , 3
2 folds, Hero bets $0.15, Button calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) K , 2 , 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.47) 3 (3 players)
BB bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

River: ($1.17) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1, BB raises to $3.10, Hero calls ?

We're beat but folding for 42 BBs more is kinda ridiculous so meh pay him off + off chance he randomly misread the board and thinks his Ace-high flush is the nuts.

He's got A5 spades and you crush him.

If he has better than the flush, I agree, pay him off.

baudib1 said:

We're beat but folding for 42 BBs more is kinda ridiculous so meh pay him off + off chance he randomly misread the board and thinks his Ace-high flush is the nuts.

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I kind of had that feeling and felt it seems crazy to fold but I just had a gut feeling..based purely on how nitty he had been. I just don't think he has a bluff range at all.

dj11 said:

He's got A5 spades and you crush him.

If he has better than the flush, I agree, pay him off.

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as I said to baub, he doens't seem the sort who would randomly bluff in general let alone on this board, but I see what you're saying in the latter part, I just don't think he's ever 4betting even the nut flush in this spot..would seem crazy.

ramdeebam said:

, I just don't think he's ever 4betting even the nut flush in this spot..would seem crazy.

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I disagree. Reverse this and not knowing what the cards are wouldn't you be jamming a nut flush? He cant be putting you on 33 or 22 or KK, as you said you have been relatively loose. Time for that looseness to pay off. More than anything he will be putting you on a lesser flush, and looking to crush you.

a true muahahahaha moment......

dj11 said:

I disagree. Reverse this and not knowing what the cards are wouldn't you be jamming a nut flush? He cant be putting you on 33 or 22 or KK, as you said you have been relatively loose. Time for that looseness to pay off. More than anything he will be putting you on a lesser flush, and looking to crush you.

a true muahahahaha moment......

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This - it sure kind of smells like a slow played nut flush.... or pocket 44. What a spot! But I just don't see how he puts you on KK, 44, 33, 22, K2 - even if he has that in your range there's a bunch more beyond that to make a nut flush a raise on the river. Right? Or didn't I spend enough time looking this over?

Monsters under the bed?

Yeah never folding. Also why no cbet?

9/8 is generally not 3-betting the river with a flush unless he misread the board.

68 hands is just not enough for me to lock into that

bgomez89 said:

Yeah never folding. Also why no cbet?

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If we have position, I don't mind maybe taking a stab, however, I much prefer checking behind as we have little equity when called.

baudib1 said:

9/8 is generally not 3-betting the river with a flush unless he misread the board.

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I agree.

MediaBLITZ said:

68 hands is just not enough for me to lock into that

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After 30 hands even, you usually get a good read (at 6max) on if someone is a maniac/loose/nitty player..I mean, this guy literally hadn't played much. I think it was safe (imo) from what I saw, that he wouldn't be raising a flush/bluff in this spot very much (if ever) even being quite loose myself.

ramdeebam said:

If we have position, I don't mind maybe taking a stab, however, I much prefer checking behind as we have little equity when called.

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Why? When we cbet we can bluff those middle pairs that villain could have that beat us. If the flush does end up hitting, we could also bluff more effectively in that spot too(i.e. he has a higher but still smaller flush than we do). OR we can spike a 3 like we just did.

I fold.
I can't see a nit 3betting a flush here. Also he's a nit he isn't going to have many nut flushes in the first place. Nits don't flat A5s. I'd only expect AsQs, AsJs as locks although granted he isn't yet a confirmed nit over so few hands.

I c-bet the flop assuming BB isn't a fish. Mono flops are usually great to remove regs/nits but terrible for fish.