$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding top set??

Alucard

Alucard

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looks like a nit. So not raising a straight on the flop could sound reasonable

No previous raise/check raise history

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 60.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, hands: 8)
SB: 87.8 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BB: 128.4 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 65)
UTG: 474.2 BB (VPIP: 39.71, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 69)
MP: 276 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 132 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9h 9c
fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (12.4 BB, 4 players) 5h 4s 3d
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 6.8 BB, fold, BB calls 6.8 BB, fold

Turn : (26 BB, 2 players) 8h
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (26 BB, 2 players) 9s
BB bets 16.6 BB, Hero raises to 58 BB, BB raises to 118.6 BB and is all-in,
 
R

RakeMyLife

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Check-check-bet is actually a strong line (especially with this board). Absolutely no reason to re-raise him on the river.

That is also why you have to fold here. He is quite nitty, and it would be crazy for him to make this play without the nuts.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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A2 and 67 are the only combos that beat you, while he could play 33, 44, 55, and 88 this way. And do nits play 76s?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
60 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5 4 3 8 9
99 60.00% (36 wins, 0 ties)
7h6h, 7s6s, 7d6d, 7c6c, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, As2s, 33, 44, 55, 88 40.00% (24 wins, 0 ties)
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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And do nits play 76s?
Considering the nit is in the BB, he is getting 5-1 on his call, and, as a nit, I most certainly would make that call preflop with suited connectors and let the aggressor do all the betting on that board, so it is possible that a nit would play 67s.
 
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braveslice

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I don’t think we can give all the sets for villain range, but 67s is 100%, A2s is 20% (folds, and 3bets, giving one combo), from sets maybe only 88, we have 37% we need 23% to call.

37% sounds too high, but regardless calling can't be too wrong.

Also the stats are typical for tight tag, most common player type, who just has been a tiny bit unlucky with hands he got during 65 hands you observed. Nit would not have that high 3bet, that suggest villain uses light 3bets too.
 
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Alucard

Alucard

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Absolutely no reason to re-raise him on the river.
Are you saying my raise on the river was bad?

I don’t think we can give all the sets for villain range, but 67s is 100%, A2s is 20% (folds, and 3bets, giving one combo), from sets maybe 88, we have 37% we need 23% to call.


How do you calculate this while playing?
Even if he had A2, can't see him 3bet shoving from the idiot end. At least that's from my perspective.
 
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RakeMyLife

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Are you saying my raise on the river was bad?

Yes. What do you expect him to call with here?

People keep saying he may have a (lower) set, but that would be a very strange line for a set at low stakes (he wouldn't risk a check-check on the turn and would have bet more on the river). Sets are often played very fast, and this board is great for a BB hand like 6-7.

...And if you get re-raised (like you did), you're stuck in a very bad spot. In my opinion, there's only around a 10% chance he has 88, otherwise you're beat.
 
Alucard

Alucard

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Yes. What do you expect him to call with here?

People keep saying he may have a (lower) set, but that would be a very strange line for a set at low stakes (he wouldn't risk a check-check on the turn and would have bet more on the river). Sets are often played very fast, and this board is great for a BB hand like 6-7.

...And if you get re-raised (like you did), you're stuck in a very bad spot. In my opinion, there's only around a 10% chance he has 88, otherwise you're beat.

check his stats. He's a nit.
The standard line here for him would be to check raise turn if he would just to call the flop.
I don't get why you wouldn't raise the river to try & get value from sets+ 2pairs.
Also why wouldn't a straight just raise it on the flop? He's easily getting value out of overpairs, sets etc


I can't understand why you'd take the passive line here.
 
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braveslice

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Well I would not raise river personally, I was actually thinking that ’How cool would it be to be as brave as Alu and raise for value’

If we bet we should know if we raise/call or raise/fold, so in this sense raising without plan was obviously wrong.

If you guys maintain your view that he is nit, then only hand he would re-raise would be dominated by 67s and RakeMyLife’s assertion of 10% equity can’t be far. I still maintain (at least still a while) the attitude that real time, we can only call his re-raise given about only one combo is needed to make call break even. But it's also true that his bet range on the river as a nit is sometimes very weird, also his bet/call range, hands like TT+ which would not be on tags range (because that would be stupid in every aspect off the game).
 
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c9h13no3

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Nits preflop aren't always nits postflop.
 
Figaroo2

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I'm never folding here after having already put in 60+bb. If he has 67 so be it. This is low stakes he might easily have been slowing playing a set on the flop looking to check raise you on the turn. All the small sets are there.
 
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