$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding Top two Pair against Nit Shove on River

P

Papier24

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No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
PokerStars
6 players
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Stacks:
UTG - UTG (
$5,17)
MP - Hero (
$5,00)
CO - CO (
$5,87)
BTN - BTN (
$5,03)
SB - SB (
$5,63)
BB - BB (
$10,34)

Preflop: (
$0,07, 6 players) Hero is MP with K♣Q♥
UTG raises to $0,15, Hero calls $0,15, 4 folds

Flop:
7♥K♠6♠ ($0,37, 2 players - UTG: $5,02, Hero: $4,85)
UTG bets $0,15, Hero calls $0,15

Turn:
Q♣ ($0,67, 2 players - UTG: $4,87, Hero: $4,70)
UTG bets $0,49, Hero calls $0,49

River:
J♣ ($1,65, 2 players - UTG: $4,38, Hero: $4,21)
UTG checks,
Hero bets $1,25, UTG raises to $4,38 (all-in), 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $3,13 returned to UTG

Total Pot:
$4,15

UTG wins $3,98


Three questions :
1. Should I fold preflop since KQo isn't the best hand against a nitty UTG opening range ?
2. Should I raise the turn ?
3. Should I call the river shove ?

Villain stats : VPIP 16 PFR 12 AggF 5,5 3bet % 0

Afterwards I personally believe I should have called because I only needed 30 % equity. I have to rule out hands like KJ, QJ of clubs or KQ to justify a fold. I think he will never shove with AK but he might do this every now and then with Aces. Not very likely though. I think it's very close after I tried out this scenario in a range equity calculator. I think I should have just folded the hand preflop or raised on the turn.
 
B

Blair29

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Calling KQo to an UTG open tends to be a mistake, particularly if the opener its a nit.

On the river even with top 2 its a pretty thin value bet against someone with those stats. Yes you'll get value from AA and AK but thats about it. Plus you leave yourself in a really awkward spot when you get shoved on, specifically against these types of players.

Once you get shoved on its fold. From time to time villain might show up with AK or AA, hoping to get called by a pair because all of the flop the draws bricked. But i'd put him pretty solidly on a set.

Plus if the stats represent a decent sample size on villain I think you can rule out hands like KJ KQ QJ from his UTG opening range.
 
Last edited:
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braveslice

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Calling KQo to an UTG open tends to be a mistake, particularly if the opener its a nit.

+1
I have that on 3bet rang, but well mostly I don't dare.
 
K

kozong

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im calling the river & hoping vill had 67, 89ss, KJ, AA, or non AT/9T spades draw

or did the check/raise river shove allways means the nuts?

i also like the option of raising the turn to GII
 
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MrSamsa

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Do you think this nit will ever stack off with a worse two pair? His weird check raise sort of looks like A10 or jj that got their on the river... I think you might have made the right play even though folding top two is pretty sick here
 
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