$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding top set on the river possible here?

K

KFlint

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Hi,

Do you think it's ever possible to get away from this hand? I don't see a set over set situation playing that way on the flop and going to the river I checked having the feeling that nothing except AJ would have called two streets so far as KQ was unlikely, maybe QTs got there but seems unlikely too. I ended up calling reluctantly, but that made me wonder if folding top set is criminal here against a nit (136 hands, VPIP : 12, PFR 8, won at showdown 75%) ?

Also, would you ever try to check raise the flop here? I wouldn't with two of the same suit, I would have bet a bit bigger.

Thanks!

No Limit Hold'em $0.02/$0.05
pokerstars
6 players

No Limit Hold'em $0.02/$0.05
PokerStars
6 players

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($12.27)
MP - Hero ($5.00)
CO - CO ($5.30)
BTN - BTN ($8.04)
SB - SB ($11.40)
BB - BB ($5.00)

Preflop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is MP with K:club: K:heart:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: K:spade: 7:club: T:diamond: ($0.52, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.33, CO calls $0.33, BTN calls $0.33

Turn: Q:diamond: ($1.51, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.80, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.80

River: 6:heart: ($3.11, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Total Pot: $7.61
 
G

Gabe16

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Some of this depends on V's 3B pre %, positional dependent vpip and post flop aggression.

If V isn't changing up much for position (I think most nits naturally loosen up a bit on the BT) and doesn't look like he'd consider the CO call as improving his pot/implied odds. Then by this river I think your looking to be close to 3/1 dog. You beat 6 combos of under sets and lose to 16 of AJ. To be +EV you need to be ahead just under 30% of the time not considering rake.

Here's the sticking point. Wouldn't V think your turn bet is pretty strong and possibly c/r you there? If V could cold call from BT a few more hands then we can probably add a few 2+ plus hands to their value range.

I think his WTSD is important here if his WSD is to be looked at. Plus over that amount of hands with him being a nit how many opportunities to WSD has he had?
 
masterminsk

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If u play cash - u have to see opponent's stats. When I play cash - I don't believe in opponent's nuts on the river when I have top set
 
B

braveslice

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I don't think all AJ are in his range given he would fold some of them to CB (and raise some OTT, like @Gape pointed out) , so calling should be profitable. Also given hero check he would bet some 2pairs (QT) sometimes, and AK is still well in his range, not fully but still.

I think this is semi drawy board, QJ, JT, AQ, 89,T9 jne... so I would CB MW a bit larger. Also long term I think you need to bet river, I know it raises even harder situation when you get raised by nit on the river, but not betting misses quite much value. How to handle river raise, I don't really know. We know he has strong hand now because he called 2 streets. And I do the same play, not betting against nit, many times. If you do hand history review nit's range is much wider than anticipated (they make massive calling mistakes, raise 68s from UTG and so on)

Also it's quite possible that not true nits play 6max except by accident, it's not just nit friendly environment. This is something I have started to wonder recently.

Here's the sticking point. Wouldn't V think your turn bet is pretty strong and possibly c/r you there? If V could cold call from BT a few more hands then we can probably add a few 2+ plus hands to their value range.

+1
 
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Gabe16

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I don't think all AJ are in his range given he would fold some of them to CB (and raise some OTT, like @Gape pointed out) , so calling should be profitable. Also given hero check he would bet some 2pairs (QT) sometimes, and AK is still well in his range, not fully but still.

I think this is semi drawy board, QJ, JT, AQ, 89,T9 jne... so I would CB MW a bit larger. Also long term I think you need to bet river, I know it raises even harder situation when you get raised by nit on the river, but not betting misses quite much value. How to handle river raise, I don't really know. We know he has strong hand now because he called 2 streets. And I do the same play, not betting against nit, many times. If you do hand history review nit's range is much wider than anticipated (they make massive calling mistakes, raise 68s from UTG and so on)

Also it's quite possible that not true nits play 6max except by accident, it's not just nit friendly environment. This is something I have started to wonder recently.



+1



Completely missed that they're calling to hit a gutter ball when considering flop action. [emoji36] V's getting 3.6/1 on a call so great odds. But with only 4 outs and being a nit I'm not sure how often it's called. You might find calling CB's to draw/light is a leak from nit here. If not probably doesn't carry on with AJ at all.

It comes down to does nit take implied odds into account often. Most don't. Most won't consider an ace as a clean out here either.
 
Figaroo2

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I Never check raise here, just bet for value.I would have bet bigger on both the flop and the turn and shoved the river. If he's a 10/8 nit he's going to be pair heavy here if he has AJ that's just really unfortunate. AJ of diamonds is the only hand I'd fear.
 
Twix

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Folding top set on the river possible here?
Not possible. Board is K7TQ6. Nobody can have flush, and you have the highest set. Maybe Button has 8 and 9? Then he have a street. But he called your raise on preflop. So unlikely he have 8 and 9. I would no fold KKK in this board.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Bet more everywhere, especially the river.
 
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QA77

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You played it fine. There are some value hands you beat so folding is too tight in my opinion.
 
Kurtimus

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I don't think I could have folded top set here. It's a set of kings, come on, that's a good hand right?

But, I'm trying to really think about this in light of the fact we know the villain is really tight, and probably called us with something. We beat 77, TT, KQ, and maybe QQ and AK but those I would have expected 3 bet. Call that 12 combos I guess. We lose to AJ and I think he might also show up with 89 here, which is 32 combos. So maybe this board is scary enough not to call?

That 6 is a bit of a scare card I guess, but I also feel like people get silly with KT. I always feel sneaky with a set, like no one will ever expect me to have it, so I still don't think I could lay this down. Maybe you should've, though. I dunno, hard game.
 
K

KFlint

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Thanks for you comments, I think that playing Zoom is the problem, people are very nitty in multiway pots and by the river you often face the stone cold nuts.

He had AJo, no so nitty call on the flop with a gutshot after all!
 
H

Hofmann

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I don't think I could have folded top set here. It's a set of kings, come on, that's a good hand right?

But, I'm trying to really think about this in light of the fact we know the villain is really tight, and probably called us with something. We beat 77, KQ, TT,and maybe QQ and AK but those I would have expected 3 bet. Call that 12 combos I guess. We lose to AJ and I think he might also show up with 89 here, which is 32 combos. So maybe this board is scary enough not to call?

That 6 is a bit of a scare card I guess, but I also feel like people get silly with KT. I always feel sneaky with a set, like no one will ever expect me to have it, so I still don't think I could lay this down. Mayb e you should've, though. I dunno, hard game.
Okay?!
 
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