$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding top pair pocket kings on the turn in position.

Hi everyone.

poker stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2840452
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $5.00
BB: $5.32
UTG: $7.13
MP: $7.00
Hero (CO): $6.90
BTN: $5.43

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Kc Kd
UTG raises to $0.14, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.45, 1 fold, SB calls $0.43, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.09) Jh 6s 9d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.69, SB calls $0.69

Turn: ($2.47) 8h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.18, SB raises to $3.86 all in

good fold ?

Overpair in a 3bet pot (SPR of 5), zero chance I'm folding. If he setmined here and hit so be it, we're making money every time he does it.

WVHillbilly said:

Overpair in a 3bet pot (SPR of 5), zero chance I'm folding. If he setmined here and hit so be it, we're making money every time he does it.

Click to expand...

I am still not very familiar with stack-to-pot ratio concept but I know the basics, but still I have reasons to believe my fold was good here.

I had no stats , but the player seemed to play standard solid abc game.

To call 3 bet without putting any money to the pot and being out of position I do expect him to play 88+ AK AQ possibly AJ . or maybe even a little bit stronger range.

I don't know whether he was watching me play tight or not but he still knows that I must have a hand because i am 3 betting from CO,

ON the flop I am beating only 88 TT QQ AK AQ and AJ and losing to 99 JJ and AA.

Being oop he calls a big bet. I don't see him doing this with AQ or AK . he would prabobly fold 88 too.

So on turn 8. I doubble barrel showing , that i am strong , and i am not giving up, but still he check-raise all in.

I am beating QQ and AJ (also beating TT too but still i can lose on river , villain having 8 straight outs).

Would he ever do this with AK or AQ I don't think so.

I am losing to 99 JJ AA. (88 if he called with that.)

His lines were way too strong and, yes you are right spr is 5 so I should be playing for top pair, but still when the board appears like that and villian make this move I am always sigh-folding.

Please convince me that I am wrong.

did some analysis with pokerstove and
99+ Ajs Ajo have only 41.8 % equity on the turn while my kings 58.1
This is interesting since there are 3 hands that i can beat and 3 hands that I lose to, but I AJ is 16 combinations while each pocket pair only 6 combinations.

So straight away I can see that I was wrong.

Also the pot odds 2.8-1 while having about 1-1 chances of winning, so I should make a call.

add anything else I missed , please

I think you've figured it out pretty well yourself. The big thing to note is the combos of unpaired hands are so much higher than paired hands. Small note is that there are only 12 combos of AJ since there is a J on the board. 9 offsuit and 3 suited.
You can also put a couple of extra hands in there for the times he is bluffing or just being spazzy as people do at 5NL, giving you even higher chance to win.

Yeah right, another thing I learned from your post is to not count cards from the board. Thanks.

The thing that sticks out to me is that any ten or 7 is a pair+OESD. I think this widens villians range a ton because many people just jam the turn when they pick up equity at 5nl even though you basically have no folding range (unless you fold kings lol).

To be honest it's not a massive mistake imo. Especially at 5nl where everyones so passive that a turn jam is really weighted towards value, and even vs the part of his range we want to see he's going to have 4+3+2 outs.

I see above you're putting AJ into his range. Note that not all villians are jamming here with AJ since it doesn't really make any sense. vs a competent villian I'd give them more like QQ, JT, suited connectors, regardless you probably have like 55-60% and can't fold.