$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding AKo pre?

R

Rhinelander

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Full Tilt - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $13.02 (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, hands: 21)
Hero (MP): $5.00
CO: $6.35 (VPIP: 26.37, PFR: 16.48, 3Bet Preflop: 6.94, Hands: 185)
BTN: $3.77 (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: $4.73 (VPIP: 28.87, PFR: 20.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 99)
BB: $5.58 (VPIP: 17.14, PFR: 13.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 215)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K:club: A:spade:

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.85, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.30, 2 players) 9:club: 5:spade: 8:diamond:
BB bets $1.58, fold

[spoil]BB wins $2.19
[/spoil]

After I played that hand I thought it would have probably been better to fold that hand pre or 4-Bet. Looking at his 3Bet-Range (JJ+, AQs+?)... what am I beating? Not much most likely... probably AQs. And then there are still 3 players left who might want to play... What do you think?
 
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hffjd2000

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I would consider here implied odds.
Preflop, yes Im behind but if I flop something, I know favor turns.
I would do also what you have done.
 
fletchdad

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BTN is a big factor here, as well as how villain sees you. How will villain see your opening range from HJ (MP)? BB seems to have good stats, a bit tight, but I am assuming he is also going to have a healthy aggressive style. BTN looks like a huge calling station, even tho there ar so few hands, but a 42/0 after 14 hands is enough info for me to go ahead and profile him as a bad calling station for now, and I would have certainly 4 bet here. Bet sizing would be the main issue for me. That all depend on how I think BB will react. I have no problem to GII now. I see his 3bet range as being a LOT wider than you stated above, considering the passive calling station on the BTN.

You are calling to play fit or fold, and that is going to be an overall losing play vs this player, and in general. At least, viewing the HH it looks like FoF post flop play. When you called, what were you planning on doing on the flop?
 
Keith_MM

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JJ+AQs+ AK vs AsKc gives him 44 combos. if you shove lets assume he continues with QQ+,AK which is 34 combos

when he folds you win $1.50

if he calls
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
equity Win Tie
MP3 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% { AsKc }
BB 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


his EV to call is 10*0.6118- 4*0.3882=4.56

10/44 you win 1.50 and 34/44 you lose 4.56

EVshove is 0.23*1.5 -.77*4.56=.34-3.51= -3.16



------------------------------------------------

lets look at calling .....three options
1 call and fold flop if we miss
2. call and win when we hit flop
3. call and lose when we hit flop

6 ace and king outs
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 4d6hAc
Equity Win Tie
MP3 76.78% 64.42% 12.36% { AsKc }
BB 23.22% 10.86% 12.36% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 4dKh6h
Equity Win Tie
MP3 65.65% 53.92% 11.73% { AsKc }
BB 34.35% 22.63% 11.73% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }


so a rough estimate if we hit we will have ~70% equity. also going to assume we win a cbet (~1.50) 1/3 of the time (he folds his JJ QQ after a cbet with A or K on flop) and 2/3 of time we play for stacks.
so . chance of hitting flop is (6/50+6/49+6/48)=37%

EV of Calling = EV of Outcome 1 + EV of Outcome 2 + EV of Outcome 3
EV of Calling = (chance of 1)(profit of 1) + (chance of 2)(profit of 2) + (chance of 3)(loss of 3)
EV of Calling = .63*(-1) + .37*( (1/3(2.30+1.50)+2/3(0.7*10.3))+ 0.3*(-4.85))
EV of Calling = -0.63+ .37*((1.27+4.80)-1.46)
ev of calling = 2.79-.63=2.16


ev of calling vs this guy looks to be better than shoving
 
Keith_MM

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BTN is a big factor here, as well as how villain sees you. How will villain see your opening range from HJ (MP)? BB seems to have good stats, a bit tight, but I am assuming he is also going to have a healthy aggressive style. BTN looks like a huge calling station, even tho there ar so few hands, but a 42/0 after 14 hands is enough info for me to go ahead and profile him as a bad calling station for now, and I would have certainly 4 bet here. Bet sizing would be the main issue for me. That all depend on how I think BB will react. I have no problem to GII now. I see his 3bet range as being a LOT wider than you stated above, considering the passive calling station on the BTN.

You are calling to play fit or fold, and that is going to be an overall losing play vs this player, and in general. At least, viewing the HH it looks like FoF post flop play. When you called, what were you planning on doing on the flop?

BB has a much bigger sample size though so is likely to have had a lot of squeeze oppotunities in the past that he has passed up. If he was going to be squeezing pre and therefore 3 betting a lot wider , i think that it would have shown up in his 3bet stat.I did the EV shove as we are likely to get all in if we 4bet anyway , either by getting shoved over or via cbet on the flop and I don't think he has a big enough 3bet range to fold enough of itto get al the money in . If he was 10% 3bet then its probably a different ball game.
 
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Rhinelander

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Thanks guys! One of the reasons why I folded on the Flop was because villain has no squeezing history at all. That made bis range look genuinely strong to me. At the time of that hand I was busy at all three tables I was playing at. Rare thing to happen. That lead to thinking not properly before calling. Should have taken a closer Look at the stats first...
 
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taas

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For me is fold. 3bet on pre-flop was strong and the flop was not good for you.
 
RegHC23

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I guess thinking about the stakes that you are playing and the stats that he player is showing. I think that the range of his hands are 99+, AKs, AQs, AKo but no lower than that. I think that in the end that was a good fold because you were clearly behind and there was no way that you could have called without facing an all in on the next street. I think you save yourself a nice piece of change and hopefully you were able to get it back on the next hands that you played.
 
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Preflop you have two options, 4bet shove or 4bet not shove. There is no reason to call him there. - folding shouldn't be considered either.
Flop: if you haven't shoved you can't fold to a cbet on a flop like that. Thats a reasonably dry board considering the preflop action.

I think people 3bet a wider range than just JJ+ and AQ+. I think from the BB you could be seeing 99+, ATs+, KQ, and a few random suited connectors. People are more likely to be 3betting wider to get a fast fold there.

Once you have called that 3bet you are actually in a situation where folding the flop is something of a mistake often enough. Because this could be a cbet where he missed the flop you could shove over him and be okay.

Mostly I think the flop is tougher than it needs to be because you called preflop when you should have bet.
 
suby_rafael

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Flatting pre flop to such a huge 3 bet was a mistake. It was either a fold or a 4bet.
 
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Rhinelander

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I think people 3bet a wider range than just JJ+ and AQ+. I think from the BB you could be seeing 99+, ATs+, KQ, and a few random suited connectors. People are more likely to be 3betting wider to get a fast fold there.
Thanks Ubercroz! Much appreciated. Do you even think that when considering his 3b% of just over 2% after 215 hands?
 
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Thanks Ubercroz! Much appreciated. Do you even think that when considering his 3b% of just over 2% after 215 hands?

Considering in other positions its as high as 6%, its hard to say. 215 is a decent number to draw a couple of conclusions from, but 3bet % can take longer to determine than some other stats, given how rarely it comes up in general.

I would still not fret over that low percentage.
 
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