$5 NLHE 6-max: Is folding a set on the river correct ?

P

Papier24

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 13, 2017
Total posts
132
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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/15/1

No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
PokerStars
6 players
Formatiert mit pokerpilot.com: Der Poker-HUD für Mac und Windows

Stacks:
UTG - Hero (
$6,28)
MP - MP (
$5,65)
CO - CO (
$5,00)
BTN - BTN (
$4,33)
SB - SB (
$6,03)
BB - BB (
$9,72)

Preflop: (
$0,07, 6 players) Hero is UTG with 9♠ 9♣
Hero raises to $0,15, MP calls $0,15, 2 folds, SB calls $0,13, 1 fold

Flop:
4♦ 5♠ 8♦ ($0,50, 3 players - MP: $5,50, SB: $5,88, Hero: $6,13)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0,25, 1 fold, SB calls $0,25

Turn:
9♦ ($1,00, 2 players - SB: $5,63, Hero: $5,88)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0,50, SB raises to $1,55, Hero calls $1,05

River:
K♥ ($4,10, 2 players - SB: $4,08, Hero: $4,33)
SB bets $4,08 (all-in), 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $4,08 returned to SB

Total Pot:
$4,10

SB wins $3,93


I have played 67 hands with villain. So I thought alot about my fold afterwards and I'm starting to think that this is a call from a gto type perspective. I'm playing against a tight player at 5NL though and he's raising me on the turn and shoves all in what obviously is just a flush a really really high percentage of the time.
I hate these spots because on the on hand I believe I can't only call with flushes in these spots in order to avoid getting bluffed too easily but on the other hand I just know how rarely such players bluff this huge on the river.
I'm just not a huge fan of saying "this is never ever a bluff and he always has a flush in this spot" because my experience showed me that this is just not true.
This leads me to the question if I should even need to have a balanced calling range in these spots against tight players ?
 
B

BuffSabres09

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Bronze Level
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Sep 13, 2015
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Your hand experience against him has to factor in, but I agree in this spot. It just isn't worth the risk. Most players at this level aren't going to bluff off their stack. They don't fully understand playing for value and maximizing profit. He also very well could have JJ-AA and tried to scare you off your hand, but I think it's unlikely. As played you've risked 1/3 of your stack, but you're risking another $4 to win $12...not terrible odds but I think there's better spots to shove. I don't think he shoves on the river with less than a flush, knowing you called his raise on the turn with the flush already out there.
 
B

BuffSabres09

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And some straights hit as well. Trips just aren't strong on this board.
 
Marcos mats

Marcos mats

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2017
Total posts
576
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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/15/1

No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
PokerStars
6 players
Formatiert mit pokerpilot.com: Der Poker-HUD für Mac und Windows

Stacks:
UTG - Hero (
$6,28)
MP - MP (
$5,65)
CO - CO (
$5,00)
BTN - BTN (
$4,33)
SB - SB (
$6,03)
BB - BB (
$9,72)

Preflop: (
$0,07, 6 players) Hero is UTG with 9♠ 9♣
Hero raises to $0,15, MP calls $0,15, 2 folds, SB calls $0,13, 1 fold

Flop:
4♦ 5♠ 8♦ ($0,50, 3 players - MP: $5,50, SB: $5,88, Hero: $6,13)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0,25, 1 fold, SB calls $0,25

Turn:
9♦ ($1,00, 2 players - SB: $5,63, Hero: $5,88)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0,50, SB raises to $1,55, Hero calls $1,05

River:
K♥ ($4,10, 2 players - SB: $4,08, Hero: $4,33)
SB bets $4,08 (all-in), 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $4,08 returned to SB

Total Pot:
$4,10

SB wins $3,93


I have played 67 hands with villain. So I thought alot about my fold afterwards and I'm starting to think that this is a call from a gto type perspective. I'm playing against a tight player at 5NL though and he's raising me on the turn and shoves all in what obviously is just a flush a really really high percentage of the time.
I hate these spots because on the on hand I believe I can't only call with flushes in these spots in order to avoid getting bluffed too easily but on the other hand I just know how rarely such players bluff this huge on the river.
I'm just not a huge fan of saying "this is never ever a bluff and he always has a flush in this spot" because my experience showed me that this is just not true.
This leads me to the question if I should even need to have a balanced calling range in these spots against tight players ?
Hi Papier24.
Here I see that you have decided to fold for the villain, well, in that specific case, you have decided to bend with your motives and I agree with you in your analysis of the villain in the future try to analyze the view that the villain have you a player and if you're sure you're a strong player and do not bluff, trust the table's view of you and ... boommm, come back with all your bet, I believe you will succeed.

Note: Here, you're right in my opinion, for the cards that are on the table, the villain has a flush drop and a nine-bit will go away.
I hope you understand my english.
We are together.
😎👊🍀💰
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Don't fold sets less than 150 bb's deep. The end.
 
T

teambuilder

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Silver Level
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Mar 25, 2017
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I think the point of decision is on the turn. If you call his raise on the turn you should call river. I would probably fold turn here against tight opponent. He is almost never bluffing turn IMO. So you are drawing to full house/quad with 10 outs. Worth it? Not sure. Against looser opponent with more bluffs in his range I am ok to call turn get it in on River
 
T

teambuilder

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I think the point of decision is on the turn. If you call his raise on the turn you should call river. I would probably fold turn here against tight opponent though. He is almost never bluffing turn IMO. So you are drawing to full house/quad with 10 outs against likely competed draw. Worth it? Not sure. Against looser opponent with more bluffs in his range I am ok to call turn, get it in on River
 
bmw1983kaz

bmw1983kaz

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I think the point of decision is on the turn. If you call his raise on the turn you should call river.
Re-looking at the OP this makes the most sense IMO.

Fold on the turn or commit all the way.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
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Dec 9, 2013
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Re-looking at the OP this makes the most sense IMO.

Fold on the turn or commit all the way.
OTT we have sometimes best hand and minimum 20% equity against made Ahi flush (Ad5d – we have 22.7% vs AKdd) , he is giving us 25%. If he is giving us his stack one quarter of the time OTR calling is profitable directly against worst hand he can have (KK excluded). So even if we decide to fold river calling turn is correct. So we can’t use turn call as a reason to call river, imo.
 
bmw1983kaz

bmw1983kaz

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OTT we have sometimes best hand and minimum 20% equity against made Ahi flush (Ad5d – we have 22.7% vs AKdd) , he is giving us 25%. If he is giving us his stack one quarter of the time OTR calling is profitable directly against worst hand he can have (KK excluded). So even if we decide to fold river calling turn is correct. So we can’t use turn call as a reason to call river, imo.
Makes sense.
 
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